Keith Rabois and Eric Newcomer's Heated Conversation on Tech, Trump, and Tariffs
Newcomer PodFebruary 12, 202601:11:0465.07 MB

Keith Rabois and Eric Newcomer's Heated Conversation on Tech, Trump, and Tariffs

Keith Rabois joins the Newcomer Podcast for a wide-ranging conversation that moves between tech, venture capital, and politics.On the tech side, we start with Brex being acquired by Capital One and what that means for Ramp. Rabois argues that banks won’t build the “finance organization of the 21st century,” and frames Ramp’s ambition as building the CFO’s “eyes, ears, and actions” across a company. We also discuss Rippling’s strategy, investor responsibilities around integrity and ethics, and how he thinks about “barrels and ammunition” when companies try to do many things at once.From there we get into AI investing and Rabois’s view that what matters is the end-customer value proposition and the durability of the advantage. He explains Rogo as an AI “copilot” for investment bankers and talks about workflow and data moats.The episode also turns heavily to politics and current events: Trump, tech’s relationship with the administration, immigration (including H-1B and O-1 visas), free speech, and foreign policy debates (including China, Europe, and the Middle East). We also argue through a recent incident involving law enforcement and protest/obstruction, and close with Opendoor—where Rabois lays out his view of the company’s turnaround, retail investors, and the company’s weekly “accountability” metrics updates.


00:00:00
What's the turn around plan man? They want these shares going up.

00:00:03
You don't get shot for that. Like This is America.

00:00:06
This is a great shot for that. They're not abducting 5 year old

00:00:08
children. I mean like that someone should

00:00:10
sue you. For that, Keith Raboy has been

00:00:12
ranked among the top 10 venture capitalists in the world.

00:00:15
His husband is in the Trump administration.

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He's buddies with Peter Thiel. His boss is the guy that kicked

00:00:21
you off the beach in California. I've been talking to Keith since

00:00:24
I started reporting on Silicon Valley.

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I simultaneously respect the hell out of him as an investor

00:00:29
while being in curated by his insufferable tweeting in this

00:00:32
episode, which was hot off Keith hanging out with the Vice

00:00:35
president JD Vance. We battled it out and didn't

00:00:38
leave anything on the table. This is the newcomer podcast.

00:00:49
Keith, welcome to the show. Pleasure to be with you.

00:00:51
All right. Do you want to talk about tech

00:00:54
or politics more? That's that's the first

00:00:57
question. Well, do you want to write about

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tech or? Politics more, but you were

00:01:00
saying just before we got on that what politics is a little

00:01:03
bit you're junk food and. Tech is like chocolate.

00:01:05
It's like tastes good, but it it's not nutritionist like it.

00:01:08
You know, my job is to find the next best founders, the next

00:01:12
generation of iconic companies. It's not to be engaged in

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politics. Yes, as companies grow up, they

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have political interest because we've all learned and they have

00:01:21
to gauge in the political sphere.

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But that's not what I do for a living, right?

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We'll get into both, Sure. I'm excited.

00:01:27
We obviously have a long history.

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I've profiled you. You let me needle you sometimes,

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which I always enjoy. I feel like I love I'm I'm

00:01:36
conflicted in that I'm liberal while you're right wing but I

00:01:39
like the contrarian fighter non boring personality.

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So I'm endlessly conflicted on you at once.

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Celebrating your willingness to say whatever you think while

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sort of disagreeing with a ton of it.

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At least the non tech pieces of it.

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Well, as you know, I I work with colleagues who have

00:01:55
disagreements as well. Disagree.

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Yeah. All right, so let's start with

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some big tech news. Breck's sold to Capital One, I

00:02:03
joked. You know, Eric Lyman's already

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been acquired by Capital One before.

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Obviously, it was a great company.

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Paribus. You know, you were a Series A

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investor in Ramp, a great investment when you were a seed.

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Seed, OK. And then you led the Series A

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foundation. OK, well, so yeah, so very

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biased. You're also you have exposure to

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Ripling, which I want to talk about in this whole thing

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through Founders Fund as well. But starting with the Breck sale

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and what it means for Ramp. What is your take?

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Well, I'm excited because there's going to be 1 modern

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technology company. It's not going to be Capital

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One. Like, the history of technology

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and financial services has never been LED since the 1960s through

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large banks. That's not going to change

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because they acquired Prax. So if you want to build a

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finance organization for the 21st century or the 22nd

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century, are you going to rely upon a technology startup like

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Ramp or are you going to go to any bank in the world?

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You're not going to go to any bank in the world.

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So it's cleared. The rest of the future is Ramp

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or nothing. What about Mercury?

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I'm not as familiar with them honestly, so I shouldn't really

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comment. We don't really intercept.

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We don't really interact with them or they're not.

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They don't seem to be competitive, but I don't have a

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lot of visibility. I just bank with them.

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So I'm like, oh, it's yeah, I agree with you that as a small

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growing company, I don't really want to go to a bank.

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I'm always having to like call JP Morgan when I have some

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problem with that bank account. Where is Mercury?

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Yeah, I don't, I don't know Mercury.

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I haven't used them, I haven't studied them and I don't know if

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they really conflict with my investments.

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So unusually, don't have an opinion.

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The do you feel like you guys Dalian may be a little bit more

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than you, but I think you some danced on Brex's grave a little

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bit too much aren't where you're you're not going to celebrate

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founders. Well, no, I mean, look, they

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quit. That's a good, it's a good

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outcome for them and probably for most of their employees.

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That's fine. We're in the business of

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building a trillion dollar company at ramp.

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I will be very disappointed if they're not worth hundreds of

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billions, like literally, personally disappointed.

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And we, this is what we talk about as a word.

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When Eric Cream and Zach Franklin and I get together,

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it's like, look, we can skate to 100 billion, but our ambitions

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about changing society and changing the way organizations

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are built and the way finance works should propel us to a much

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broader, much bigger ambition and the concomitant valuation

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that's associated with that. So I'm focused on the future

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ramp. I don't really care about

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Breck's. People think about it, you know,

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corporate credit card that helps you cut spending, what's what

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gets them to the next level. Yeah.

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So the next level is, is pretty straightforward.

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This CFO does care about cutting expenses, right.

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CFO's, controllers on down and we started there.

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We're going to save you time and money and but the CFO doesn't

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have the ability to stitch together all of their policies,

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which ramp does do. Now you can take corporate

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policies and implement them on the cards auto programmatically,

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but they don't recognize and reconcile like revenue against

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this data, against cost, against payroll.

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If you were the CF OS eyes and ears of the entire company and

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ACFO could literally run in a large organization and have

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complete transparency, transparency, complete

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visibility, all the data integrations.

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That's the future. Someone's going to build a

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company where the CFO sits around and maybe has almost no

00:05:28
colleagues for a public company. And because they have all the

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data plumbing together, that's why the bank can't build this.

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Like, you know how many integrations you need to do on

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different data structure, data, unstructured data, how to

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synthesize it. You need AUI layer like.

00:05:41
Eric and Cream, the founders of Ramp have clearly leaned into AI

00:05:45
very strategically and both in marketing and in the actual

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product, which has been savvy. That sort of leads us into now

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that Ramp and Brex. I mean, there could be some

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collision. Obviously Capital One wants to

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compete with Ramp, but for the Silicon Valley story, is it

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going to be Ramp and Rippling these days or do you?

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I don't see a head to head competition.

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Yeah. Again, you know, I'm not

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directly involved in rippling. You're right.

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As you know, AGPI Founders Fund we invested in.

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The biggest regret of my career is that I've talked about in

00:06:16
other podcasts is I gave Parker a term sheet for the seed round.

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It was just a little too cheap on the valuation.

00:06:22
Gary Tan, Gary. Tan Yeah.

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And Parker just wanted me to raise it a little bit and they

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didn't. And I still have nightmares,

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like, almost every day about this.

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Like, you know, Parker actually responded to one of my tweets

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about the nightmares. So I love Ripley.

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I love Parker. I helped actually him close Matt

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to join the company. Matt McGinnis So, you know, I'm

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a big fan. I don't think there's as much

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overlap as people think. Yes, at the margin, both

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companies have massive ambitions.

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And anytime you have two companies with massive ambitions

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that have some directional overlap, there's probably some,

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you know, conflict at the margins.

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But it's it's not something I think of as like an existential

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like fight. You, you, you.

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I mean, they both want to be the software of record for a

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business, right? I mean, Parker wants to be

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Ripley. Wants to be the software record,

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you know, system of record. He's always been interested in

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that space forever ramp. I don't think we think of it

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that way. We think we want to be the eyes,

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ears and actions. For the CFO, it's a little bit

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different. So imagine work day but for a

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CFO is probably a better metaphor.

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So, Rippling, do you think Rippling's strategy of, you

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know, sort of cobbling one startup on top of another, like,

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gets a little unfocused? I, I think they're doing, I

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don't, I don't see evidence of that, let's say in metrics or

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performance. I think it can be dangerous as a

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strategy independent of rippling, quad rippling if you

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try to do too many things. I think that is pretty

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precarious. And so you have to be very

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judicious. And it's a function of uses,

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metaphor, barrels and ammunition.

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It's a function of talent. You can only do the number of

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things you can do in parallel is dictated by the number of

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barrels you have in a company. And if you have 10 barrels, you

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can do 10 things in parallel successfully and safely.

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If you have 3 and you try to do 10 things, you may break

00:08:12
everything. And so I don't know how many

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barrels Parker has sitting around.

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And what is your Do you think Deal broke the law?

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You know, like I'll, I'll say I, I used to be a litigator.

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I have not read the pleadings. Like I've not personally read

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the docs from the Twitter exchange, like meeting the

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superficial feed. I see it does look that way.

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But again, I have not double clicked.

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I have another time to double click and read all this stuff.

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If I really wanted to have an opinion, I would read the

00:08:43
documents myself and I would have a strong opinion.

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I'm just too busy doing other things.

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I'm not an investor in deal and I'm not really direct, you know,

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participating in rippling. So I'm just kind of, I track it,

00:08:54
but I don't, I don't really have an opinion.

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Do you do you think investor I mean, RIP sorry, Andreessen

00:08:59
Horowitz is really bear hug deal.

00:09:01
Like do you think you know they they were the board member on

00:09:05
synapse like how how much do you think investors need to hold a

00:09:09
hard line against fraud? Or you know the lesson from

00:09:12
Zenovitz in some way. And you know, I'm a defender of

00:09:14
Parker was I always support the founder.

00:09:17
I don't know what are the limits of.

00:09:19
Well, I think there's, you know, everybody has their definition

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of integrity. I think that's critical.

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And like, you know, for note and I did a joint podcast recently

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when we talked about Jack Albin asked us like directly, is

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there, you know, one thing that's like non negotiable and

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we both have the same response immediately.

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It's like ethics integrity. So I don't think in compromise,

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for example, like when Parker was pitching us for the seed

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round of ripling, he only got two term sheets.

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By the way, Gary Tan and me were the only two term sheets.

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The. Key, the key thing I wanted to

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hear, my partners wanted to hear is what lessons did he take away

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from Zenefits? That was all we we knew he'd be

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like successful and he'd be able to get traction.

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And he knows what he's doing. He doesn't build products and

00:09:56
company. But the question for us was, has

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he learned based upon that experience of Zenefits or is he

00:10:02
going to do the same things? And we obviously extended term

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sheets. So we believed that he had

00:10:06
internalized some core lessons. It was a different person.

00:10:09
Let's move to AI. You know, you've done some

00:10:13
meaningful marketplace investments.

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What is the future of marketplaces in an AI era?

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Like do you see these sort of agents existing in marketplaces

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have feels so like it feels like Silicon Valley has moved on from

00:10:25
marketplaces? Well, I don't think in terms of

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labels like marketplaces, you're right.

00:10:29
I invested in a fair and I like marketplaces, but it's more that

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I found the founder fascinating and I felt like that there's a

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business opportunity and marketplace was a tactic to me.

00:10:43
It's not like the Bill Gurley like writing about blog posts

00:10:45
about marketplaces and I'm. Looking for all these

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marketplaces? You're a DoorDash is a

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marketplace in some ways, but that wasn't what resonated with

00:10:52
me. It was like Tony, you know,

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interned with me at Square. I thought Tony's phenomenal.

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I immediately grocked when he and Evan actually pitched me.

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Evan Moore pitched me on what DoorDash was, was this is the

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I'm Hungry button on your phone, kind of an Andrew Mason a

00:11:08
concept. It's like, yeah, I'm hungry.

00:11:10
I can imagine people pressing this all the time.

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Now the hard part was 'cause you deliver that food reliably

00:11:15
across vast selection on time, like, but the demand was obvious

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and the marketplace just is a component.

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So I don't really think in terms of people's labels, even AI,

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which is, you know, the conventional label of the day

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that it is your topic. You've sort of pushed back a

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little bit on the AI everything or you have. 70% of my

00:11:35
investments over the lot since I came back to KV which is a

00:11:37
little over 2 years. 70% of my investments are AI, but it I

00:11:42
don't like look and say I want to meet AI companies.

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The way they deliver a value to some end customer is through the

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introduction of AI. And that to me is the critical

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part. And then there's a set of

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questions around can they deliver this value sustainably,

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durably given all the progress and technology, you know,

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through labs and Neo labs, all stuff like is there a durability

00:12:05
there? But it's, it's more to me, the

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value proposition of who, what value you're creating for the

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world or for an industry. And then what's the secret sauce

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that you're you're using that no one else?

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What's the why now? And what's the sustainability,

00:12:19
the accumulating advantages of why you can do this forever?

00:12:22
So let's make this tangible. You know, one company I'm

00:12:25
excited about and you're very invested in is Rogo.

00:12:27
We had them on stage early at Cerebral Valley.

00:12:30
That's true. Explain.

00:12:32
Yeah. The the theory behind Rogo and

00:12:33
what? You said so in the short term, I

00:12:35
think you can think of Rogo as copilot for investment bankers.

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Like investment bankers do a lot of grunt work.

00:12:41
Like we're in New York City, like a lot of people here are

00:12:43
investment bankers. It's one of the worst jobs on

00:12:45
the planet as far as I can tell. But it's prestigious and lots

00:12:47
of, you know, fancy college grads want to be I bankers.

00:12:49
What they do or, you know, all day is create presentations.

00:12:53
That's all they do. Stitch together these

00:12:54
presentations 24/7, turn it around and, you know, pitch

00:12:58
clients on like here's targets for you and all that stuff.

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It's a lot of road work, but glorified road work.

00:13:04
And these people are compensated heavily, but they work 24/7.

00:13:08
Could you use AI to automatically generate these

00:13:11
presentations with the proper data, with the right target

00:13:14
list? Absolutely.

00:13:15
And so that's what we do is we make the life of the investment

00:13:18
bankers better, more accurate, faster and probably less

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expensive over time to customers.

00:13:24
How capable is it right now? It's really good.

00:13:26
I mean like so we there's really roughly 30 top tier investment

00:13:30
banks in the world. I suspect we'll have almost all

00:13:34
of them as well they all want. To know they all want to make

00:13:36
sure they're not missing something that's.

00:13:38
Not yeah, but we should. So one thing we do differently,

00:13:40
Arogo, we have always cared about from the beginning, since

00:13:43
I got involved at the Series A, So I got involved.

00:13:45
We care about the usage metrics like literally MAUDAU kind of

00:13:50
consumer metrics like if you're building the right product, you

00:13:53
want the entire banking team to be using you frequently,

00:13:56
constantly. And that's the right metric, not

00:13:59
revenue. Revenue's a byproduct of

00:14:00
succeeding. We so we don't just try to sell

00:14:03
and then because there is a lot of budget, you know, allocated

00:14:05
to AI, check this out. We don't care about that.

00:14:07
We care about DAUS&MAUS. What's the mode to protect them

00:14:12
from Open AI, Khosla investment or Anthropic?

00:14:16
Great question. You know, Gabe and I chat about

00:14:18
this all the time, like all the time.

00:14:20
I I think there's workflow moats like like the construction of

00:14:23
what an investment banker has to do is not just leveraging

00:14:26
ChatGPT yes, that can be a useful ingredient.

00:14:29
Secondly, there's data modes. There's a lot of proprietary

00:14:32
data in this business like they're.

00:14:34
I was shocked actually, after I met Gabe of how many successful

00:14:37
start-ups or companies that have like hundreds of millions of

00:14:41
dollars and are worth billions of dollars that are just

00:14:44
proprietary financial services data.

00:14:46
There's like, you know, something like 5 or 10 of these

00:14:48
and that I wasn't familiar with maybe all, but maybe one of

00:14:51
them. So you need access to that data.

00:14:54
Many or most of these companies are not giving it to Open AI or

00:14:57
Tropic because they actually don't want to protect their own

00:15:01
business. We actually do have the rights

00:15:02
to use many of them through Rogo.

00:15:05
So I think that's a Bloomberg. Bloomberg I don't think we use.

00:15:09
I'm sure they would. Well, it's less important in

00:15:12
different parts of banks use Bloomberg differently.

00:15:16
The I bankers are not as addicted to Bloomberg and

00:15:18
Bloomberg chat as some other parts of the bank.

00:15:20
OK. Or at least that's what I've

00:15:22
been told. Right, Right, Right.

00:15:23
I haven't been an I banker. Yeah, but I had friends who a

00:15:26
lot of my friends growing up from college became I bankers.

00:15:28
Now, now, lawyers are making big bucks.

00:15:30
I mean, obviously you've done very well, but for a while it

00:15:33
seemed like a foolish career. If you're up.

00:15:35
No, well this is the case. I started as a like high end

00:15:38
corporate Wall Street law firm in New York City at silver

00:15:40
problem, Silver problem. And what happened was all of the

00:15:44
smartest corporate attorneys, transactional attorneys became

00:15:47
eye bankers. They all went begin like wanted

00:15:49
to go to work at Goldman because they make so much more money.

00:15:52
But I was a litigator so I didn't have that option.

00:15:54
So I had to go to tech. It was like I was a desperate

00:15:57
desperate like height of the Internet bubble.

00:15:59
January 2000. And was PayPal the entry?

00:16:02
Point Well, no. I started at a company that no

00:16:05
one remembers called voter.com. It's actually a good idea.

00:16:08
It's involving politics. Actually.

00:16:09
Politics meets text. So you can see why it was

00:16:11
interesting to me. And we were trying to

00:16:13
personalize content back in 2000.

00:16:16
The basic concept is a lot of people who say, are you

00:16:19
interested in politics more than a majority of Americans say no,

00:16:23
but most Americans have an issue or two that they care about a

00:16:26
lot about. Like it could be taxes or it

00:16:28
could be abortion or it could be some foreign policy, Israel,

00:16:30
Iran, whatever the case is. So the question was in the

00:16:34
beginning of the Internet sort of was could you narrow cast

00:16:36
content that people would read and consume even if they

00:16:41
rejected politics, quad politics.

00:16:43
So that's what we did and we're doing a pretty good job of it

00:16:46
actually. Then the Internet bubble

00:16:47
occurred and we'd kind of built the startup assuming capital was

00:16:50
cheap and oxygen, you know, and fuel would be forever available.

00:16:55
And that changed very quickly in March 2000, and then definitely

00:16:59
changed forever in June of 2000. And we had a very young, sharp,

00:17:04
but young 19 year old CEO drop out Duke.

00:17:06
He wasn't willing to make dramatic changes which would

00:17:09
have been required to save the company.

00:17:10
I still think the idea generally is conceptually pretty sound.

00:17:14
But that was my first start. And as that was that company

00:17:16
started struggling and I got frustrated the CEO for not being

00:17:19
decisive. I called up my friend Peter

00:17:22
Thiel and I said, hey, what do you think I should do?

00:17:24
It's just pure advice. And he said, well, I could

00:17:27
introduce you to a lot. The company was more on the

00:17:29
West, East Coast. So I was living in Boston and in

00:17:31
DC, and Peter's like, I could introduce you to a lot of people

00:17:35
in Silicon Valley, but why don't you just come work for us?

00:17:37
I was like, you know, what do you want me to do?

00:17:40
And six weeks later, I had already moved to California and

00:17:44
started in the office of PayPal. This.

00:17:47
Is a fraught question, but the PayPal mafia is all over the

00:17:52
Epstein files with Reed and Elon fighting with each other.

00:17:58
I what do you make of the whole? What is your view on like how

00:18:01
much we should be focused on this or not?

00:18:04
You know, I don't know, it's one of these again, a topic that I

00:18:07
have not like, yes, I see in my feed Elon.

00:18:11
It's hard to miss Elon. No, no if.

00:18:13
A court question is like, how does the world work?

00:18:15
You're a little closer to it than.

00:18:17
I know I know some of the people, not Epstein obviously

00:18:20
never met them, but I read, you know, these threads and I don't

00:18:26
have the time to dive into like who said what about who and how

00:18:30
true or false is it like that? Like I do need to concentrate on

00:18:35
like what I do for a living. This.

00:18:37
Is just I feel like the answer is this is a loser to talk about

00:18:40
or like how can you not be curious about it like.

00:18:43
I mean, I'm curious, but as an amateur, like right, like like

00:18:46
pure amateur. And I think some of the stuff

00:18:49
with Elon and Reid going back and forth is an amateur.

00:18:51
I can't tell the difference. Like I, you know, I have

00:18:53
opinions on some things I've read in the news about Epstein,

00:18:58
but it's, it's more just I have opinions about like, you know,

00:19:02
anything else in the news. How it gets to like How sincere

00:19:07
is some of the fighting on Twitter?

00:19:08
Right is. It feels like one of the main

00:19:10
topics that they're just like weaponizing against each other

00:19:14
when because it's like mutually assured destruction or they

00:19:17
instead of mutually assured destruction where they would

00:19:19
stay away from it. Now it's like everybody has put

00:19:21
their foot on the gas and is just throwing accusations

00:19:25
around. Fairly, I think.

00:19:25
I think that has changed. The dynamic seems to be very

00:19:28
common on. You know that dynamic.

00:19:31
Are you out on Reed? Like I feel like they it used to

00:19:34
be there was sort of a friendly relationship between the right

00:19:37
wing members of the PayPal mafia.

00:19:39
Yeah. I mean, I haven't, I don't have

00:19:41
any problems with Reed. He has, in my opinion, the wrong

00:19:44
views on many topics. But I also think he's very good

00:19:48
at what he does. He's funded some things that I

00:19:51
think a mistake and, you know, as he looks back on his life and

00:19:56
realize probably shouldn't have funded, but like lots of people

00:20:00
have wrong views and sometimes they have epiphanies.

00:20:03
Like sometimes people wake up and realize, like I used to

00:20:05
think acts and now I think why? Like this happens to people.

00:20:09
So I'm somewhat optimistic. This is, I grew up in Macon, GA

00:20:13
and, you know, I had all these Christian friends when I was an

00:20:15
atheist. And I'd be like, how can you

00:20:16
think I'm going to go to hell? And they'd say, well, we think

00:20:18
you're going to convert, you're going to be saved.

00:20:20
That's sort of what you're saying.

00:20:22
I'm holding out for his soul to be redeemed.

00:20:24
So yeah. So there's I mean, so I grew up

00:20:26
actually the opposite way. I don't know if you know this.

00:20:29
My parents were pretty liberal. They were like the impeach Nixon

00:20:32
people running around. I was like, if you watch the old

00:20:35
my parents. Were liberal to be.

00:20:36
Clear. Have you ever seen Alex Keaton

00:20:37
in Family Ties growing up? No, this is a great TV show

00:20:40
about this like conservative preppy kid with like hippie

00:20:43
parents. That was like my family growing

00:20:46
up. So, you know, I, I do think

00:20:48
people do change, though. I have seen important people in

00:20:51
my life evolve their views. And one of the reasons why I

00:20:55
proselytize, you know, about topics, politics, whatever, is

00:20:59
occasionally you say something that resonates and that's a big

00:21:03
deal. Like, so for example, I'll tell

00:21:05
you how I became a conservative. It's kind of interesting.

00:21:07
I remember listening to my parents about all these views.

00:21:12
And then Ronald Reagan got elected and they were convinced

00:21:16
that he was going to blow up the world.

00:21:18
They're convinced that he hated Jewish people.

00:21:21
And then he got elected. Are you Jewish?

00:21:22
I don't actually. Yeah.

00:21:23
OK. My wife.

00:21:24
Extremely Jewish meaning like very.

00:21:28
My daughter is now Jewish, so yeah, anyway.

00:21:30
So anyway, one of those people. Said that but but so they they

00:21:32
have all these views about Reagan.

00:21:34
Literally he was kind of a nuclear, you know, Armageddon

00:21:37
and like, anyway, he got elected in like on day one.

00:21:40
Everything started getting better.

00:21:41
The hostages got returned from Iran, the economy started

00:21:43
growing, blah, blah, blah. America was back, you know, we

00:21:46
won the hockey game, you know, all this stuff.

00:21:47
So so I was like. That's a story like so my this

00:21:51
running what happened to me got returned when he came back.

00:21:54
So, well, it was because they were afraid of Reagan.

00:21:56
Like these were like, he's gonna bomb.

00:21:58
He's a bad guy. No, they.

00:21:59
Were like he's gonna bomb us, he's not fucking around it's a

00:22:02
little bit like what they're gonna see about Trump, like

00:22:04
Trump's not screwing around like with Iran.

00:22:06
Yeah, that regime is gonna end. It's just a question of how

00:22:09
painful is it and like period like.

00:22:12
It's going on for a long time. Like I there's to bite on Iran

00:22:16
specifically. There's a funny dynamic on

00:22:18
Twitter, which is like people like Josh Wolf being, why isn't

00:22:21
the left talking about this more?

00:22:22
Which I don't understand what we're supposed to be calling for

00:22:24
like. Well, that's it's a good

00:22:26
question of what you should do, but it is it's absolutely the

00:22:30
case that the current government is slaughtering it is the

00:22:33
people. It's terrible.

00:22:34
Right. So like but the the same people

00:22:36
who are whining about other topics seem to be.

00:22:39
Very normally you whine in America when you're trying to

00:22:41
move the American regime. What?

00:22:42
What are we supposed to whine about on Iran?

00:22:45
Well, I, I do think people should be protesting like

00:22:48
there's official organizations that are supposed to protect

00:22:50
civilians. Very they were very critical in

00:22:53
the other parts of the Middle East and suddenly they're all

00:22:55
dead Sonic. Like there's no protests at

00:22:57
campuses, there's no celebrities wearing pens, none of this.

00:23:00
It is a little interesting. I'd argue it's because of

00:23:04
anti-Semitism and a bunch of other reasons.

00:23:06
But like fundamentally Josh isn't wrong at all.

00:23:09
I still think though, that doesn't give you the answer,

00:23:12
which is what are you going to do?

00:23:14
And I actually think this is a challenge for the

00:23:16
administration. Like I know many of the people

00:23:18
in the administration and. Your husband is in the

00:23:21
administration. Yeah, he doesn't work directly

00:23:23
on this on this specific. You are close to it, but I, I.

00:23:27
Don't I? I know, mostly.

00:23:28
You know vans pretty. Well, I know JD, we just, I just

00:23:30
had JD over for dinner. And so I and I know Marco and I

00:23:35
think he's phenomenal too. And I know Scott and I think

00:23:37
these are all great people. They're working on this.

00:23:40
But if they ask me, sometimes when friends of mine ask me, I

00:23:43
have an idea, like here's what you should do.

00:23:47
Ask me exactly what to do here. I'm not so sure I have the right

00:23:51
idea. Like I'm a dumb tech guy.

00:23:52
I don't know. No, no, no, no.

00:23:54
I'm like, no, I would never say that.

00:23:55
No, I do have ideas like if you said what we should do about

00:23:57
healthcare, I have some ideas. Or if you said like for example

00:24:00
on Iran, I do have one specific idea that I think Trump should

00:24:02
have done like a month ago. He's he should have absolutely.

00:24:05
He said, you know, stop murdering protesters.

00:24:09
He should have said you also must turn on the Internet now.

00:24:13
Like he should have coupled the two and like, yeah, I think it

00:24:17
would have been effective. And then it would have been like

00:24:18
transparent of like what's going on and it would have been harder

00:24:21
for them to mask all the. Atrocities, but they have still

00:24:23
been killing protesters. Yeah, no, I know.

00:24:26
They're. Going to take action like I, I

00:24:28
just think that a, it was a question of what action to take.

00:24:32
Like they'll be effective as opposed to taking action for

00:24:34
action's sake. Like I think one thing the

00:24:35
administration has done that's very impressive actually is many

00:24:38
of us studied poli sci and things like that growing up.

00:24:41
And you had, we'd learn all take all these classes on the lessons

00:24:43
of Vietnam and you know, the more modern lessons from like

00:24:46
other interventions and laws did not go well.

00:24:51
This administration before they took action in Venezuela,

00:24:53
literally consciously sat down and said all the mistakes are

00:24:57
made in the last 30 or 40 years. What were the root causes?

00:25:00
And then how do we avoid them? And they have a a checklist of

00:25:04
like here's the things that our. First principles.

00:25:06
Think, well, like at least try. Like at least what can we learn

00:25:09
from mistakes that the country has made?

00:25:11
So at least we don't repeat the same mistakes and then try to

00:25:14
apply that to what are we going to do in vent as well.

00:25:17
I think they're trying to and we'll see whether they do

00:25:20
successfully figure out what went wrong with other

00:25:23
interventions and wars. And then how could you apply

00:25:26
that to Iran to have a more successful outcome?

00:25:28
And again, we'll see, but it's not easy.

00:25:30
It's not like, oh, just put this troop there, just put that thing

00:25:33
there. So I, I we'll see what they

00:25:36
eventually. Do but I I like the

00:25:37
psychological journey we were going on.

00:25:39
You had liberal parents. They told you the sky was going

00:25:41
to fall. It did.

00:25:42
It did fall and I was like, well, maybe they're wrong about

00:25:44
everything. And I started more.

00:25:47
They were wrong about foreign policy first, actually in this.

00:25:50
War interventionist at the time. Yeah, like I like you.

00:25:53
Supported the war in Iraq? Yeah.

00:25:56
I don't know that specifically about you, but just give your

00:25:58
little. Directionally, probably at the

00:26:00
time, like I don't think I ever explicitly commented on it, but

00:26:04
like probably like I think it's a fair, like the people, let's

00:26:07
put it this way, the people in power were people I supported.

00:26:10
Right. I mean Trump came in obviously

00:26:13
sort of being anti interventionist and now is

00:26:15
interventionist. No, I think that's somewhat,

00:26:19
let's say superficial and not in a dismissive way to you, but

00:26:23
just like a lot of people focus on a couple of his statements.

00:26:30
He's old. He's old school.

00:26:32
My view is he's an old school Teddy Roosevelt meets McKinley.

00:26:36
I've heard you say this. Yeah, he's very Teddy Roosevelt

00:26:40
was very interventionist, but defined to a smaller set of hard

00:26:45
games. Like, I'm going to care about

00:26:47
this, and if I care about this, you're screwed.

00:26:49
Like, like you do not like, but I'm not going to try to do

00:26:53
everything and fix the world in every possible place

00:26:56
simultaneously. But if I tell you don't do that,

00:27:00
you don't want to do that, That's like Trump, more like

00:27:02
Trump, but more like the big stick.

00:27:04
You know the famous thing about Kerry that speaks softly.

00:27:07
He doesn't Trump doesn't follow the speaks softly part, but the

00:27:10
big stick definitely part. And so in the territorial

00:27:13
expansion from the, you know, from McKinney, like, you know,

00:27:16
like Stuart's folly on down and Louisiana Purchase like this

00:27:19
country was built on territorial expansion.

00:27:21
Actually, people also forgot that.

00:27:22
So I don't think Trump is like. You want us to take Greenland?

00:27:26
Oh definitely. We need not take well, no like,

00:27:29
so let's be careful. We definitely need to have

00:27:33
strategic assets and. Let we already had that we we

00:27:37
could do bases. In June, let me, let me, let me

00:27:38
give you the. Example.

00:27:39
And Trump is talking about, like, making US territory.

00:27:42
Yeah. Well, let me give you a very

00:27:43
specific illustration of sometimes why the media doesn't

00:27:45
communicate things well. So they say, OK, we already have

00:27:48
the bases, or we have the right to the bases or whatever the

00:27:51
truth is when you have a base somewhere, and we learn this in

00:27:53
the Middle East all the time. If you want to read about it,

00:27:55
read about Qatar or Turkey bases.

00:27:57
We have base symbol. If you just have a base, you

00:28:00
need the host country's permission to use that for an

00:28:02
active operation. So Turkey can say no even though

00:28:06
we have a base there. You can't.

00:28:08
You can't use our airspace to fly your planes.

00:28:10
Or Qatar can say no. And for a lot of regional

00:28:12
reasons, they often do. If you have actual sovereignty

00:28:16
on the base, Denmark or Greenlee cannot say no to the US

00:28:20
launching a military operation. And that is indispensable.

00:28:23
And it's very different. And so I think that is

00:28:25
fundamental, so. We've never had an issue with

00:28:27
NATO reject like NATO is. No, but like some of this, some

00:28:31
of the countries are a little soft, like Turkey's technically

00:28:34
a NATO country, so actually yes. But we're that's actually some

00:28:36
of the drama NATO as an institution.

00:28:38
I didn't say, I didn't say there hasn't been a NATO country

00:28:41
that's caused this like difficulty.

00:28:43
I I said I did not say that. I did not say that about an

00:28:45
individual. But.

00:28:48
NATO as an. Organization.

00:28:49
Is low is like controlled by the United States.

00:28:51
It's a vehicle. Oh, we're not technically

00:28:53
controlling it, but so, OK. So that's one thing is we

00:28:56
definitely need military control of some bases there, especially

00:29:00
because the, as the Arctic has melted, like the, the, the rush,

00:29:02
you see those plots people have on the Internet of like where

00:29:05
the missiles go, where the Subs go.

00:29:07
So we definitely need to stop that. 2nd, the other big

00:29:11
initiative for this administration is supply chain

00:29:14
for minerals. Like China's been using that as

00:29:16
a very aggressive like sort of piece of leverage against the

00:29:21
United States. And so the from JD on down to

00:29:25
Jacob are working on mineral supply chain.

00:29:29
Greenland has some minerals and we definitely need access to

00:29:33
that. There are lots of other ways to

00:29:34
get access to it. You don't have to like take over

00:29:37
the country or anything. He was never going to invade the

00:29:39
country. That was like silly, like that

00:29:41
was not going to happen. But, and it is I in my view, it

00:29:46
is perfectly fine to use economic leverage to achieve

00:29:49
goals like if we have the biggest economy in the world and

00:29:51
it's growing the fastest, we can definitely tell other countries.

00:29:55
That user to alienate Europe like it's useful you're.

00:29:58
Alienating us. Well, that's yeah.

00:30:00
J DS more right than wrong about this.

00:30:02
Meaning, like, Europe is harassing Jews.

00:30:06
So if you're a Jewish person in the UK, in France, you need to

00:30:11
get out like now. Like, this is really bad.

00:30:14
Like, I hope we do things to encourage those people to move

00:30:16
to the United States so they're safe.

00:30:18
Second, they are cracking down on U.S. companies like action

00:30:23
harassing them or you know, and that's going to have to stop.

00:30:27
Like we are going to use economic, this administration is

00:30:30
going to use what Jacob likes to call economic states craft,

00:30:34
which is we're going to use our economy.

00:30:36
European treatment of Jewish people, but we're getting closer

00:30:39
and closer to the Middle East, which has been extremely

00:30:41
hostile. Well, I think, I think the whole

00:30:43
point is like, we're going to have more Abraham's Accords.

00:30:45
But it's like a different, different set of standards for

00:30:48
one country from the other. Which is supposed to be what?

00:30:51
Well, you'd be safer in Israel. In Europe?

00:30:53
Sure. Israel.

00:30:54
If you're. You'd be safer in the UAE

00:30:57
actually as a Jewish person than in any European country, I'm

00:31:02
pretty sure of that. What's safe is like I wear

00:31:05
loose. I would travel to the UAE

00:31:07
without security. I would not travel to Paris

00:31:10
without security. Really.

00:31:11
You wouldn't go to Paris. 100% no.

00:31:13
Like you're worried you're going to get kidnapped or what's?

00:31:15
Yeah, I would if people identify me as a Jew.

00:31:17
You could not wear Yamaka like in Paris at all.

00:31:20
You would definitely be assaulted like like everybody

00:31:23
like is terrified Jewish star like.

00:31:26
I would not walk down the streets of London or Paris with

00:31:28
the Jew star. I would definitely wear one in

00:31:30
the UAE and maybe even Saudi Arabia.

00:31:32
I don't know that my. My wife is, I mean, pretty

00:31:35
clearly Jewish. We spent two weeks in Paris.

00:31:36
Did she wear did she wear? It doesn't.

00:31:39
I don't want to speak. It's an awkward subject because

00:31:42
I don't want to speak for how other people feel afraid, you

00:31:44
know, the the liberal community comes out I'll.

00:31:47
Tell you Jacob's mom left Parrish, they were born and

00:31:50
raised, lived in Paris forever and they had to escape.

00:31:54
They literally had to move just because of the anti-Semitism.

00:31:59
So we're you're going. To see what you're going to see

00:32:00
there. So we give up the European

00:32:02
Alliance. No, you're we're just let

00:32:04
they're breaking it. We're breaking it.

00:32:05
You're. We're moving on from.

00:32:06
How to? Rethink their first principles

00:32:09
of like. What values do they support?

00:32:12
Like, do they believe in free speech or not?

00:32:13
That's a fundamental tenet of the United States, Is it?

00:32:15
Yes. All right, that I wanted to get

00:32:17
to free speech. I honestly was surprised free

00:32:19
speech wasn't sort of a core drive, that foreign policy was

00:32:22
sort of the. The first starter, well, there

00:32:25
was there wasn't this libertarian, authoritarian like

00:32:28
suppression of free speech back when I was growing up, like if

00:32:30
you're a mod, like a liberal sauce liberal, like the ACLU and

00:32:34
all these people were like very purse speech.

00:32:37
Like they were the ones, you know, suing like Illinois to let

00:32:40
the Nazis protest. Right.

00:32:42
It was the left wing. Yeah, the left wing was free,

00:32:44
more free speech, right? So there wasn't like this

00:32:46
authoritarian, like we're going to stop and suppress ideas we

00:32:50
don't like. It didn't really exist,

00:32:51
certainly not from the left. So like.

00:32:54
You know, and therefore you didn't need to, but you.

00:32:56
Therefore it wasn't. I'm not trying to drag this up,

00:32:58
but you obviously had a very famous example where you use the

00:33:00
word yeah, and you said it was about testing the borders of

00:33:03
free. Stanford was very different.

00:33:05
So I grew up in high school and call it before there is no like

00:33:10
constraints on speech. No one even thought this a good

00:33:12
idea. They'll say you showed up

00:33:13
Stanford and like everybody's on this like crusade to crack down

00:33:17
on ideas that were not what we used to call back then.

00:33:20
The term was multicultural, right?

00:33:22
It's changed various vocabulary. But like that was like really

00:33:25
awakening. Like, I'd never even seen people

00:33:27
like that thought that way that were.

00:33:29
But there was, you know, Stanford in the 80s was at the

00:33:32
cutting edge of like the wolf movement.

00:33:35
We didn't call it that back then, but it was.

00:33:37
And, you know, it was pretty resistant to that.

00:33:39
But. And and so are, you know,

00:33:41
several of my friends who, you know, have to do interesting

00:33:43
things. But yeah, they.

00:33:46
They called for a lot. I mean, what David Sacks and

00:33:49
Peter Thiel wrote out against date rape.

00:33:51
There are a lot of things that they have.

00:33:53
Now. Sort of disavowed.

00:33:57
So David wrote an article. Honestly, I personally have not

00:34:02
read that in 30 years so I don't.

00:34:04
There's someone who's gets very you get very schooled on the

00:34:06
issues you want to talk about, not.

00:34:08
Well, sure. Well, exactly.

00:34:09
I talk about things I know something about.

00:34:10
You want to talk about Iran? I know a decent amount about it.

00:34:12
I talk about the Middle East. I know a decent amount about it.

00:34:14
Sure. You want to talk about

00:34:15
persecution of Jewish people? I know a lot about it.

00:34:17
Sure, there's lots. There's a billion topics like so

00:34:20
yes, when I was young, I used to read the encyclopedia, like

00:34:22
literally cover to cover. Like that's what we do for on

00:34:25
read every volume. An early language.

00:34:28
I don't have time. I serve on 16 boards.

00:34:29
I don't have time to read every issue.

00:34:31
All right, let's let's drill in on free speech.

00:34:33
I won't make you litigate, David said.

00:34:35
Many years. Ago, but we did at the Stanford

00:34:38
Review. We wrote like anti multicultural

00:34:40
things without a doubt. And I think with the benefit of

00:34:43
history, look lots of 1617181920 year olds will write things that

00:34:49
don't look perfect with the beneficiary.

00:34:50
But I think there's going to be a lot of things that Stanford

00:34:52
Review published that look great.

00:34:54
Like I wrote a piece like from Stanford Review on the

00:34:57
brilliance of Ronald Reagan's foreign policy.

00:34:58
That was my first piece. That's the idea, the the

00:35:01
brilliance of Ronald Reagan's foreign policy that that looks

00:35:04
profound. Like, this was when the Cold War

00:35:06
was at its height. And I was like, Ronald Reagan's

00:35:08
going to fix this. He did.

00:35:10
Do you want the United States have a policy of basically

00:35:13
letting white immigrants into the United States and.

00:35:16
My, my views on this are has nothing to do with race.

00:35:20
It is a pure talent question. I think the most talented people

00:35:22
on the planet, we should have been to the United States,

00:35:24
wherever they're from, like whether it's O1 Visa or whatever

00:35:27
you want to call it, like we need to be a magnet for.

00:35:29
But we're letting you know white S Africans come.

00:35:31
It does feel that we're targeting there is a.

00:35:33
Political asylum question there, which also might be relevant to

00:35:36
the Jewish people like if you're persecuted and if you're death

00:35:39
like we may grants asylum, but I think it's.

00:35:41
Something that's when we look at what the Trump administration is

00:35:44
doing, it feels like they are preferencing white, white.

00:35:47
People. I don't think that, and I think

00:35:49
they also isn't. You can correct me if I'm wrong,

00:35:51
but my impression was that they let in 37 people.

00:35:54
Right. I I mean, but a lot of these

00:35:55
things we got. 16 million illegal immigrants

00:35:58
against 37 people, Which one should we be focused on?

00:36:02
The. I think it's 37 people.

00:36:06
The Trump administration does not want to.

00:36:09
They're not like really supporting H1BU visas

00:36:11
particularly. There's controversy within the

00:36:12
administration. I think there's people who are

00:36:14
more enthusiastic about a magnet for talent.

00:36:17
JD Vance is moving away from that.

00:36:19
I think so. I think, I think there's a lot

00:36:24
of pressure on reducing. There's definitely been abuses

00:36:30
of H1B visas where there has been a clear substitution.

00:36:33
Like to the extent tech was misled about what Trump was

00:36:36
going to do, I mean, he goes on the all in position.

00:36:38
He's like, we're going to give everyone, yeah.

00:36:40
And then where it isn't happening like we're a year in.

00:36:44
Well, we're yeah, we're a year in a four.

00:36:46
He has accomplished almost everything else in year 1 which

00:36:48
is very impressive like. Terrorizing Minnesota.

00:36:51
The economy is not rising, he said.

00:36:53
He was going to bring down inflation, not like.

00:36:55
It is. There's no inflation.

00:36:57
Look at true inflation. It's like we're.

00:36:58
Much. Yeah, yeah, we'll go to you can

00:37:00
go to the economy I used. Stay on true inflation.

00:37:02
But this is Yeah, Trump has visas, O1 Visas I.

00:37:05
Personally think we should expand O1 visas.

00:37:08
Like probably 3 acts of them right?

00:37:10
That's my. Opinion.

00:37:10
That is something we are aligned on.

00:37:12
We right. I want immigration.

00:37:13
As I said, so there's. People certainly elite as

00:37:16
people. Tweet at me like oh, you just

00:37:17
repeat whatever. You know, the administration.

00:37:19
No like I actually think we should triple O 1 visas.

00:37:23
It doesn't seem like it's going to happen.

00:37:25
We'll see. I mean, I think the

00:37:27
administration does definitely want to fix lots.

00:37:29
Every everybody, like on all sides of the spectrum thinks our

00:37:32
immigration process is a mess. Like, I don't can you meet

00:37:35
anybody who's like, oh, this is the the system we should have.

00:37:38
So the question is, can you create an alliance of people who

00:37:41
want to fix this and this to get enough votes to change that?

00:37:44
But I think Trump, as he said on All In is more progressive about

00:37:49
bringing talented people to the United States.

00:37:51
Now there is a tricky issue with the CCP.

00:37:54
China has been sending people here and they're clearly have

00:37:57
been examples of imported like material espionage.

00:38:03
And so I think that poses another like a layer to this of

00:38:07
what are we going to do about the CCP sending people here

00:38:11
designed to conduct industrial or otherwise espionage.

00:38:15
So that's also a very. Complicated.

00:38:17
That's a very. It's complicated.

00:38:19
And then like, so let's talk about immigration.

00:38:20
You want to talk about crazy immigration?

00:38:22
We currently have allowed and maybe in the last month this has

00:38:26
changed, but as of a month ago this was not true.

00:38:28
You could as an Iranian citizen, go study nuclear physics at MIT.

00:38:34
I know this is a fact. That's insane why we are

00:38:37
educating the nuclear physicists of Iran to build the bombs.

00:38:41
But we should want them to stay here.

00:38:43
Well, maybe to me. The problem is we didn't.

00:38:45
I don't figure out a way to keep.

00:38:46
People I don't know that citizens of an enemy state like

00:38:48
Iran is technically an enemy state far an adversary defined

00:38:52
in law by Congress. Sure.

00:38:53
I feel like you're bringing up a lot of edge cases.

00:38:55
But no but. This when they're failing to

00:38:57
deliver on the core. They aren't delivering on the

00:38:59
core thing. The core thing they ran on is

00:39:01
we're going to shut down the southern border.

00:39:03
Day one fixed. Like literally fixed Obama.

00:39:06
There were fewer illegal immigrations during Obama.

00:39:09
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no zero What what Obama claims

00:39:14
credit for and I can walk you through stats here is he said we

00:39:17
had more deportations. The reason he can claim that the

00:39:20
status is very misleading, but here's the definition he's

00:39:22
using. If you tried to be an illegal

00:39:24
immigrant and come from Mexico during the Obama administration,

00:39:26
if they caught you and they turned you around, they called

00:39:29
that a deportation. The current definition is if

00:39:33
you're in the interior of the United States is so Obama had

00:39:37
many more stop you. But they counted that

00:39:40
statistically it's true that they did actually turn you

00:39:43
around. So it's not a bad thing.

00:39:45
But the statistics are apples and oranges and every everybody

00:39:47
who studied this would agree with me like this.

00:39:50
So it's but they're both good. I mean, Obama like, look, if you

00:39:53
read Clinton's speeches on immigration or Obama's speeches

00:39:57
on immigration, they sound like Trump like this is a very modern

00:40:01
change in the Liberal Democratic Party.

00:40:03
Their views on immigration. I I think people could accept

00:40:07
certainly freezing the border. Yeah, I think the interior work,

00:40:11
I mean, you were, you were a lawyer.

00:40:12
Yeah. So you understand that there are

00:40:14
lots of laws that people aren't following, speeding, whatever.

00:40:20
And then they're also there are people with green cards that we

00:40:22
have the right to revoke, but then there's no reason to like

00:40:26
scare the shit out of them when they were allowed to be here,

00:40:29
they had a green card or they had some other to be.

00:40:32
Here as long as sure, but. Like they didn't break any sort

00:40:35
of agreement with you. Well, we do have different rules

00:40:38
on green cards. Like Rubio talks about this a

00:40:40
lot. If you're guest, you don't have

00:40:43
the same rights as the person who owns the home.

00:40:46
And I think we stopped enforcing that.

00:40:49
And Rubio and the State Department is enforcing that.

00:40:52
So if you're on a green card, your ability to criticize the

00:40:55
United States is different than an American citizen, and I think

00:40:58
that's very reasonable. It it creates a terrible free

00:41:01
speech culture. In the United States, not

00:41:03
necessarily. The woman, by the way, I think

00:41:05
you had sort of pushed back on the idea that the woman who is

00:41:09
push out of the United States over op-ed, that it was just the

00:41:11
op-ed and then evidence did come out that it was just the op-ed.

00:41:14
Do you concede that one? No, actually.

00:41:16
There was an update on. That send me the update on that,

00:41:18
send me the evidence and I'll look at it.

00:41:20
But I do think Mark was right. We have scarce number of green

00:41:24
cards and we should choose. It's perfectly proper to choose

00:41:28
people who support the United States to allocate the green

00:41:30
cards too. I don't think you can do that

00:41:32
for American citizens. You shouldn't.

00:41:34
The government shouldn't choose, but the government does have

00:41:36
discretionary rights for people who are visitors, just like at

00:41:39
your dinner guest. But we're we're creating.

00:41:41
You don't have a right to a green card.

00:41:43
You have to sort of have fidelity to the, the Republican

00:41:45
Trump administration right now. It's it's do you align with

00:41:48
their views? They're they want to be able to

00:41:50
scrub the social media of people.

00:41:52
Coming in the United States, you're cheering out.

00:41:54
That is insane. It's not insane.

00:41:56
It's not. It's insane in the context of an

00:41:58
administration that very much cares about fidelity to a

00:42:01
specific. That's your interpretation.

00:42:03
You don't think that's all your business friends are doing?

00:42:06
Tim Cook is literally bringing him like golden gifts.

00:42:09
OK, you cannot pretend the kissing up to Trump.

00:42:13
Like Biden. Like.

00:42:15
Biden that had like a small random counter.

00:42:18
You don't with the CCP, are you? You.

00:42:20
Deny if it like business leaders today obviously see and we're

00:42:24
starting to see this break because we literally just.

00:42:26
Saw, I don't think it's going to break, but like keep going, keep

00:42:28
going. Business leaders feel like they

00:42:30
need to cozy up to a Trump in a way that is unprecedent in

00:42:33
modern American history. I think business leaders in TAC

00:42:36
feel the need to cozy up to Trump, but let me explain why.

00:42:39
They all spent infinite amount of money in 2016 and 20

00:42:44
depending on which year and sometimes both funding

00:42:48
Democratic opposition. And I don't think a successful

00:42:51
CEO should be that binary with their money.

00:42:55
Like across the organization. Google 98% of all contribution

00:42:58
wins to Democrats. That is not acceptable and so

00:43:04
they do need to do some correction to that.

00:43:06
Facebook Mark spent 600 K personally trying to elect Joe

00:43:10
Biden. You can't do that without

00:43:13
creating enemies. So I think some of it is a

00:43:15
recalibration. Some.

00:43:17
I think, well, show me how many tech executives or how many

00:43:21
companies, how many tech companies can you find that had

00:43:23
70% or more greater Republican contributions?

00:43:26
Some of these were just employees.

00:43:27
It's like employees are allowed to be left wing.

00:43:29
Well, you are allowed to be left wing, but I think if you're

00:43:32
going. To you are.

00:43:33
If you are, you are. I guess this is.

00:43:35
Well, you got to be careful then, like I don't think like.

00:43:39
The government is going to come after you.

00:43:41
Well, you don't. That's not that is not the three

00:43:43
enterprise. You can't be an ideological

00:43:46
supporter as a company. And like, so for example, like

00:43:50
there's lots of companies in New York, Fortune 500, would

00:43:53
Citibank ever give 90% of its money just to one side?

00:43:57
No, you're talking with Pepsi oil.

00:44:00
Donations. Yes, but it's through a pack, so

00:44:03
it's organized. Well, it depends.

00:44:05
Depends, but. The ones you were saying.

00:44:07
About tech companies are about. Employee donations 100.

00:44:09
Percent depends on what data set you're looking at, but the

00:44:12
company does have usually organizes a pack at least for

00:44:15
their leadership and so it's not totally like just random atoms.

00:44:19
I agree the random atoms is is slightly different than when the

00:44:22
company orchestrates it, but if the company orchestrates then

00:44:25
you have to be a little bit more judicious.

00:44:27
We agree they're dancing for Trump.

00:44:29
So you think they have to make up for past?

00:44:31
Some do, some definitely have to make up for sins like if you try

00:44:35
like you could people. Are literally getting pardoned

00:44:38
for criminal acts based on just showing up at Mar a Lago.

00:44:41
Do you disagree with that? Well, I don't think that's

00:44:44
actually true. You don't think I have a major

00:44:46
pardon issue going on in the United States right now?

00:44:49
Well, I do think I do think we have.

00:44:50
Corrupt. Here's a bipartisan comment.

00:44:53
I think we need to reform the pardon system.

00:44:55
Like you saw what Biden did. I think everybody found that

00:44:58
outrageous. Pardoning himself when clearly

00:45:00
Trump was gonna go for retribution.

00:45:02
Who indicted Trump on all these? Completely fake charges every.

00:45:06
Single one of them has been thrown out, every single one.

00:45:08
And they're all, they're all like as a lawyer and as a

00:45:10
litigator. They've been thrown out because

00:45:12
the new Justice Department came in and threw them out.

00:45:14
No judges ultimately threw them out like so.

00:45:17
The New York State one, the Justice Department had nothing

00:45:18
to do. The New York State Court of

00:45:19
Appeals, which is all liberals, 100% liberal.

00:45:21
Threw it out because he is now the president and he was gonna

00:45:24
make it so. They made this shit up like, so

00:45:26
let's talk about New York. Happen to know this?

00:45:28
Well, they changed the statue of limitations, then they took a

00:45:33
paper offense, which is typically a misdemeanor and said

00:45:36
we're going to now change the law.

00:45:38
So if you have this paper records offense and we're

00:45:41
changing the statute of limitations so we can go back to

00:45:43
this paper he might have filed, right, We're going to now.

00:45:45
Change it into fun. But this is New York is yes or.

00:45:48
Georgia. Same thing in Georgia.

00:45:50
The key one is the independent prosecutor, the special

00:45:53
appointee. Well, I think that those were

00:45:55
legitimate. The confidential classified

00:45:58
documents handling was and he was definitely obstructing like

00:46:01
those things were happening. Oh, you mean like like Joe

00:46:04
Biden? Both as vice.

00:46:05
President, but he proactively returned them.

00:46:07
It was once there was a there are legal standard, there are

00:46:10
different. Things like Hillary Clinton,

00:46:12
like Hillary had all these documents.

00:46:14
Servers. What about?

00:46:15
What about? But like what I'm saying with

00:46:17
that is like, look, if politicians do, if politicians

00:46:20
of both parties do something, it's unfair to harass and

00:46:23
prosecute the last. What is your take on the $500

00:46:27
million going to Trump's crypto That's.

00:46:30
Stupid. Like he shouldn't have done

00:46:31
that. It's just, it's huge.

00:46:32
I know it's stupid. Like because my point I always.

00:46:35
See, I'm neutral like I think. I don't think they should do

00:46:38
that. Like I just don't.

00:46:39
Drop, but it is a scale of corruption never seen in

00:46:42
American history. Well, I think you should.

00:46:43
You're. Ruining some.

00:46:45
History a little bit, but like Harding, I'm sure had like if

00:46:48
you were just for. Inflation and you know maybe

00:46:50
Johnson getting elected I. Don't even know this corruption.

00:46:53
I just don't think the optics are a good idea.

00:46:54
Like I think they're going to be president focused on achieving

00:46:57
things. Why bother with the distraction?

00:46:59
Like that's my opinion. Like it's like it's wounding

00:47:02
capitalism, like it's creating a world where but the fraud wins.

00:47:05
Let me give. Let me give you the pushback.

00:47:07
If you were like a MAGA conservative and you wanted to

00:47:09
push back, you say of all the modern presidents, the only one

00:47:12
who became less wealthy by being in office is Donald Trump.

00:47:15
Every other president became more wealthy after being

00:47:18
president. So you know, it's actually true.

00:47:21
So you. Get wealthy while he's

00:47:23
president. No, but like the point is he's

00:47:25
actually gone down a net worth because he served every other

00:47:29
president. Obama went from like 200 K to

00:47:31
200 million like this. Very common I.

00:47:33
Don't know if this is still true.

00:47:34
This 500 million is a lot of wealth for.

00:47:36
Him well, does it go to all The Who does it go to?

00:47:39
I don't know like. It's it's a lot.

00:47:42
Anyway, I don't think personally, I don't think they

00:47:44
should have done it. Are you?

00:47:45
I don't think whoever made the decision.

00:47:46
I don't think it's a distraction from achieving.

00:47:49
Things. Are you still a China hawk?

00:47:51
Yes. And the Trump administration is

00:47:53
giving China our most valuable AI.

00:47:56
Well, there's debate with any administration as you can.

00:47:58
See. Is that that's happening, right?

00:47:59
Well, no, it's not approved. It's not approved like they

00:48:03
don't. Have to sign it, what's your

00:48:04
prediction? I don't think they're going to

00:48:07
get the chips. Oh, really?

00:48:09
Well, I personally hope they don't get the chips.

00:48:11
Is this wish casting or knowledge?

00:48:13
No, I think there's like it has been delayed.

00:48:16
So there's a number of people who have to sign off on this

00:48:19
stuff. There's like a review process

00:48:21
and you're right correctly stating that the Trump

00:48:25
administration gave the first level blessing, but there's

00:48:28
several other departments have to sign off on that and that

00:48:31
hasn't happened to the TO. The number one thing if you were

00:48:33
China hockey, you would not. I agree with.

00:48:36
I agree with you. It is the most China dovish

00:48:38
thing you could do. I I agree with you.

00:48:41
You know, David Sachs, he's very smart and very knowledgeable,

00:48:43
has a completely different perspective.

00:48:45
You should debate it with David. No, David and I are.

00:48:48
I mean, I'm happy. David, come on the podcast.

00:48:50
He should, I mean, he should, he can articulate his view.

00:48:52
I understand his view. I don't agree with his view.

00:48:56
And that's fine. Like we can both be

00:48:57
conservatives and debate it, right?

00:48:58
But he has a very strong perspective that has logic to

00:49:02
it. He's super sharp.

00:49:04
Jensen and David's view views are very strong.

00:49:06
I happen to have a different view and I'm willing to

00:49:08
critique. It I mean, I think we should

00:49:10
have, you know, a clueless policy, but I think we should

00:49:13
extract from China. Your Facebook should be

00:49:15
available right there. I think we need to.

00:49:18
I personally am a China hawk. I believe that we need to lock

00:49:22
down dual use technology for lots of reasons with with

00:49:26
respect to China and the CCP. But I understand friends of mine

00:49:31
and friends of mine in the administration have slightly

00:49:34
more nuanced or different perspectives on this and you

00:49:37
know, that's what they're empowered to do.

00:49:39
But I have my my personal views are similar to yours.

00:49:42
The a lot of this I mean the corruption I think is terrible

00:49:46
and you know chips you know, foreign policy people can

00:49:49
disagree. It's it's very debatable.

00:49:52
I think saying no innocent person was involved with Alex

00:49:55
Pretty. I thought that was pretty dark.

00:49:59
Well, you can, but it's obvious he was an agitator.

00:50:02
Agitator free protests Assembly. Was not a protest that you're

00:50:06
just lying to your readers. Readers.

00:50:09
Let's talk about it. Yeah, yeah.

00:50:11
That was not a protest. That was an organized

00:50:13
obstruction of an ice operation. There was no protesters, so if

00:50:16
you want a new show. They're, they're observers.

00:50:18
We, I, I, I wrote a newcomer that we, we just slipped through

00:50:22
this era where people like Elon were calling for independent

00:50:26
media, independent if you want citizen journalists.

00:50:29
And here he is. He's recording what's happening.

00:50:32
And then and then. With his phone.

00:50:34
No, in the first video he's not recording.

00:50:36
He's fucking kicking. OK, that OK.

00:50:38
So you MIT he's like 2 weeks before he was out shader now

00:50:41
he's in now. You're just like, oh, he's a

00:50:42
record. You don't get shot for that.

00:50:44
Like this is America. You do, you do.

00:50:46
Get shut. So do you.

00:50:48
What city do you what? What city?

00:50:49
What city do you live in? This city.

00:50:50
OK, you live in New York City. Go downstairs walking up to any

00:50:54
New York Police officer, literally anyone you can sample

00:50:56
however you want. Go to five, it's actually better

00:50:58
than 1/3 to five and ask them what they would have done

00:51:01
differently. And you're going to be shocked.

00:51:03
They actually acted. They, they don't like the

00:51:06
result. Like, just to be clear, let's be

00:51:07
totally clear, the result was very unfortunate, the process if

00:51:12
you ask any police officer in an urban city what they trained and

00:51:15
what they would have done in the exact circumstance.

00:51:17
People, people in US are always going to have a very more than

00:51:20
giving attitude towards people having to make.

00:51:23
But I've watched this. Happen.

00:51:24
This happened in Miami. So I was in Miami the week after

00:51:27
and I watched my neighbors talking to her.

00:51:28
People love the police in New York.

00:51:30
In Miami, we have a really great police force and figure out what

00:51:33
I'm sorry, but anyway, so watch my neighbors.

00:51:34
Actually talking, this whole argument could still be made and

00:51:37
he could still be innocent. Well, innocent.

00:51:39
He's a felon, innocent from a perspective of should you be

00:51:43
shot? I I'm not debating that with

00:51:44
you, but some you. Don't think he should have been

00:51:47
shot. No, but I do know that.

00:51:49
And do you think he gave them 'cause to be shot?

00:51:51
Yes, yes. By carrying a weapon.

00:51:54
No, definitely not. But you cannot.

00:51:56
The first thing you learned like I do, You grew up in a city,

00:51:58
too. I grew up in Macon, GA, which

00:52:00
actually has a high crime rate, yeah.

00:52:01
OK, great. One of the first things you

00:52:03
learn is you do not get in a violent altercation with police

00:52:06
under any circumstance like this.

00:52:08
You talk one of the reason why minorities have not supported,

00:52:11
you know, the protests in Minnesota is they all know that

00:52:15
they tell their kids at 7 years old, the police pull you over,

00:52:19
do not get in a fight. Like that's the first thing you

00:52:21
learn as a kid in an urban environment.

00:52:24
He clearly resisted arrest. Now, being armed when you're

00:52:28
resisting arrest is he'd. Been he'd been in the vicinity

00:52:31
of pepper spray and pepper. Spray.

00:52:33
Yeah, but he was still fighting. And there were six of them.

00:52:36
They've taken his gun and they shot him in the back.

00:52:39
No, they shot him in the front. No, they shot him in the back.

00:52:42
But the the officer, the only legal question, only legal

00:52:46
question is really simple and we'll eventually get to the

00:52:48
bottom of this is we'll eventually become out in public.

00:52:50
Dwayne is did the officers who fired the shots, the two that

00:52:53
fired the shots apparently did they know the gun was taken away

00:52:57
or not, that is. Certainly going to say.

00:52:58
They don't know. Well, no, but like you'll be

00:53:00
able to tell like I don't. Know you need to be threatened

00:53:02
they were not being. Threatened to be threatened,

00:53:04
police officer, but that's false.

00:53:05
That is not the correct argument.

00:53:07
That is not legally true. You do not you do not like the

00:53:11
Supreme Court ruled 9 nothing like literally this is not the

00:53:14
the standard. But if they knew he didn't have

00:53:16
a weapon, that would this whole court.

00:53:18
Ruled that you need to bring in like the totality of the

00:53:21
circumstances that have happened and nothing they and that is not

00:53:24
what happened there was not he wasn't threatening them he was

00:53:28
recording and then he helped pick up a woman from the.

00:53:31
Street anybody who. Violently, what did he do?

00:53:34
What did he do? Violently, he was violently

00:53:36
resisting arrest. You cannot do that.

00:53:39
You cannot do that. Period.

00:53:40
He was. He was.

00:53:42
Absolutely. There were six on one.

00:53:43
Like are you? Still resisting, he was still.

00:53:45
Intentionally like tells people, can you drive this race?

00:53:48
This was border. Control.

00:53:50
I know that's true, That that is true.

00:53:52
You can stuff up. It has just become an American

00:53:55
convention that the people doing border control are ice.

00:53:58
OK, Ice by ice because we like, you know, if that is the

00:54:01
territory where you can find some wind, if that's the ground,

00:54:04
you can find some wind to defend yourself.

00:54:06
That is such a small piece. Of this straightforward if the

00:54:10
officer. If the officers the Border

00:54:12
Patrol authorized by Trump shot American in the back doing the

00:54:16
most patriotic thing he could, which is observing the

00:54:19
totalitarian use of authority, he.

00:54:21
Was in the middle of a he's a patriot.

00:54:23
No, he's not a patriot. Yes, nobody believes this.

00:54:25
And when? We yes, I sincerely believe.

00:54:27
It looks so fucking stupid when we release his signal chats like

00:54:30
this was an. Orchestra.

00:54:31
The idea that yes, of course they're following ice.

00:54:34
They're not. Following ICE, he was in the

00:54:35
middle of the street interfering with operation.

00:54:38
That is a felony. It's actually punished by 8 to 9

00:54:40
years that that offense before resisting arrest, which has a 20

00:54:43
year. Interfering by picking someone.

00:54:44
Up No, If you're in the middle of the street, you cannot he.

00:54:47
Was on the sidewalk when they. Let's do a thought experiment.

00:54:50
If if right downstairs, we go down the studio and the police,

00:54:54
the New York Police Department is trying to arrest somebody and

00:54:57
either one of us white, you know, all American, whatever

00:55:00
goes in the middle of the street while the police, New York

00:55:02
Police Department is trying to arrest somebody.

00:55:05
Will those officers grab us violently?

00:55:07
Absolutely, 100%. Sure, but they shouldn't shoot

00:55:09
him. Well, they they should not shoot

00:55:11
him. Next thing that happens.

00:55:12
Let's follow this through like the fire experiment's worth

00:55:14
doing. They shouldn't shoot us.

00:55:16
Depending the what we how we react when they throw us down

00:55:20
violently, they might not intentionally, but they might

00:55:24
like if one of us were to grab like if one of us were to.

00:55:27
Grab you think I already I I don't have this positive view of

00:55:30
the police is like the right bar for authority.

00:55:33
So I do OK. So Even so, I think this exceeds

00:55:36
what the police would do. There was a there was a great

00:55:38
video that is like if ice came to New York, at least it's like,

00:55:42
I feel like the NYPD would stand up for us because they they're

00:55:44
like, we're the ones that are supposed to shoot New Yorkers.

00:55:46
Not not not ice. Oh my God.

00:55:48
You have such a detour started. View of really you should be

00:55:51
that's high authoritarian you're in tell I like why are you I

00:55:55
feel like why I don't understand why do you like authority I.

00:55:58
Like law and order? You're supposed to be a

00:56:00
disruptor. I am a disruptor, but you don't

00:56:02
get to violate the law. If you do.

00:56:03
The law is Trump today. Then you, the people, are

00:56:07
learning the wrong lesson. So my parents, let's talk about

00:56:08
my parents in the 60s and 70s when they didn't like the law.

00:56:11
What did the Vietnam people do? Protest.

00:56:14
They protested, wrote songs, but created music.

00:56:16
And they were willing to get arrested.

00:56:18
Martin Luther King, Sure. Civil rights, you know, I'm

00:56:21
going to get arrested. I'm not going to resist arrest.

00:56:23
So if you the way to show a law is unfair or wrong or whatever

00:56:28
your perspective is, is more like the 1960s and 70s, I would

00:56:31
support that. But like, fighting against

00:56:33
police is a very bad idea. I I just think it is very hard

00:56:37
to comply with six officers at once, putting pressure on your

00:56:40
body. That's how you comply.

00:56:41
Like literally tell me you don't know a four year old.

00:56:43
Kid that. I just think you're getting

00:56:45
like. You know any?

00:56:45
Frayed, they're attacking you. Your body is barely in control,

00:56:49
Police officer confronts. You, if you're in a car, you put

00:56:52
your hands on a steering wheel and the hands visible on the

00:56:54
steering wheel. You learn that first take a

00:56:56
driver Ed like literally sophomore year high school.

00:56:59
Then if you're not, if the police confronts you and it

00:57:02
looks like they're agitated. What do you do?

00:57:04
You you agree that they're in Minnesota because Minnesota is

00:57:07
politically hostile to. No, I think, well, it depends.

00:57:11
High definition here. Politically hostile, meaning

00:57:13
they're not actively turning over criminals to ICE?

00:57:16
I'd agree with that. Is true, they wanted them out of

00:57:19
like prison. Yeah, they want.

00:57:21
Them and they're also making claims that they're not in

00:57:23
prison when they law. Yeah, I don't totally understand

00:57:25
that. But like, fundamentally, I do

00:57:27
agree with you that the the extra officers in Minnesota are

00:57:33
because Minnesota decided for whatever sort of reasons to not

00:57:36
take the criminals in the prison and just hand them over, which

00:57:39
is the historical precedent even under Obama.

00:57:41
Like this came out recently that Obama used to have actually an

00:57:45
ICE agent in every prison, like literally sitting in the prison

00:57:49
waiting for them. So like, again, people are being

00:57:52
somewhat hypocritical here. Like, so here's another example.

00:57:55
OK, so you don't like the shooting of an American, right?

00:57:59
So where were you in the Obama administration?

00:58:01
You know, ICE under Obama shot 59 citizens or 59 people. 23

00:58:07
died. Right.

00:58:09
So that's like 10X the amount have died under the Trump

00:58:13
administration. Where were you complaining?

00:58:17
Where were your friends? I mean, nobody was obviously

00:58:19
incidents become symbolic. Yeah, sure.

00:58:22
So, you know, I agree. I totally own that this is a

00:58:24
representative of a bunch of themes have in the United States

00:58:27
and some of these things we focus on and some we don't.

00:58:30
Hypocrisy. But I am not.

00:58:31
It's OK if Obama does like. It's great if Obama does it, but

00:58:34
if Trump? Does say I support abolish you?

00:58:36
Nice. So you're like it's, I'm happy

00:58:38
to. So John.

00:58:39
So John Lott is. It is a it's an institution that

00:58:42
has John Lott's of credibility. Chicago professor does stats

00:58:45
about crime mostly. He published the stats about the

00:58:48
error rate of Trump's ICE. Like how many times have they

00:58:50
made a mistake of any type? And then the error rate under

00:58:53
Obama? Using the same stats, Trump's

00:58:56
ICE is 5X less error prone. I I saw a stat that what like

00:59:00
the immigration officials in Minnesota committed more crimes

00:59:03
than like the immigrants in the same period of.

00:59:05
Time. I doubt that.

00:59:06
The. I doubt that.

00:59:08
I mean, like, look, so you should look.

00:59:09
And one of the things the administration's getting better

00:59:11
at is these people they're deporting are really bad.

00:59:16
Like these are like child. No, they they literally.

00:59:20
Have these. Criminal.

00:59:22
The criminal in the middle of the street in the cold.

00:59:24
They're abducting 5 year old children.

00:59:27
They're not abducting 5 year old children.

00:59:28
I mean like that. Someone should sue you for that.

00:59:30
Why so? Because you know what happened?

00:59:33
Do you actually know? What happened?

00:59:34
What? Happened, yes.

00:59:35
So they were arresting correctly or deporting correctly a father

00:59:40
who was illegal and a criminal like a bad criminal.

00:59:43
He had a 5 year old in the house.

00:59:45
They asked the mom did she would she take care of him and he she

00:59:49
said no. So what are they going to do?

00:59:51
You have to get rid of the criminal.

00:59:53
And the mom says I don't want my 5 year old.

00:59:55
So you know what they did? They put they picked up the five

00:59:57
year old and put him in the library.

00:59:59
Like this is literally what kind of speech?

01:00:01
Culture, are you encouraging they have a 5 year old like they

01:00:06
have a 5 year old? Because the mom said I won't

01:00:08
take care of them, the mom literally said.

01:00:10
Creating the circumstances of these immediate seizures.

01:00:13
You know what happened in New York City?

01:00:15
Imagine if we go downstairs again and I'm a mom with a 5

01:00:18
year old and I run away and say I don't want my 5 year old.

01:00:20
You really want to get arrested? Don't.

01:00:22
You think just this sort of like hair trigger people should be

01:00:25
sued over speech is a deterrent to free speech in the United

01:00:28
States? 100.

01:00:29
You said it just now that, by the way.

01:00:31
Where were you in the Biden administration when they lost

01:00:33
139 kids? They literally lost 139

01:00:37
kids. Where were you?

01:00:38
You were about 1-5 year old. There's 139 people that

01:00:41
somehow were kids were running around.

01:00:43
I think it's insane to be upset that we're mad about the optical

01:00:48
situation when Trump is doing everything he can to highlight

01:00:51
that he's taking an aggressive stance in interior states.

01:00:55
Like he is creating the the he's painting a picture but that's

01:00:59
false to be responded. To let's look at Texas.

01:01:01
So there's 10X or more deportations from Texas than

01:01:05
Minnesota. 0 incidents. You know why?

01:01:10
Because the Texas. No, they're not running around

01:01:12
trying to make a scene in Texas. I would love that.

01:01:14
I'd love them to show the same attitude that they're doing in

01:01:17
Minnesota where they have people terrorizing.

01:01:19
But you can be in Texas and let the people of Texas you can.

01:01:22
Preditate from my point about an idea.

01:01:24
So obviously I would feel terrible for the actual.

01:01:26
Immigrant protest on the sidewalks.

01:01:28
You cannot interfere. He was on the sidewalk.

01:01:30
Without he was in the middle of the street obstructing traffic.

01:01:33
Suggested on Twitter that Vinod Khosla wasn't your boss.

01:01:36
He's your boss. Not really, he would say.

01:01:39
He's not. He is hard and firing power.

01:01:41
He's the I don't. Think so.

01:01:44
I don't think I haven't read our LP agreement in a while, but I

01:01:47
don't. I find it hard to believe the

01:01:48
guy on the your You guys are peers or yeah.

01:01:52
I mean he's he's like default, but actually practice.

01:01:55
Samir actually runs day-to-day at KV.

01:01:58
I I appreciate you going back and forth The I I need to ask

01:02:01
about open door because there's a set of few I don't cover the

01:02:03
public markets, but obviously, yeah, I feel like there's some

01:02:06
people watching this show. It's like, oh, you have open

01:02:07
door, you haven't asked about it.

01:02:09
I can't go anywhere without talking.

01:02:10
Yeah, exactly. What's the turn around plan,

01:02:12
man? They want these shares going up.

01:02:14
Is it still a meme stock? What's Yeah, well, it.

01:02:16
Was never a meme stock. What it was is there were retail

01:02:21
investors. Normal people could see the

01:02:23
vision and the upside potential of the company better than

01:02:27
professional investors, which I think is a great thing.

01:02:29
By the way, I'm a big fan of retail investors even before I

01:02:32
got involved re involved in Opendoor.

01:02:34
I think like the whole purpose of a stock market.

01:02:36
Let's take a step back. Why do we have a stock market

01:02:39
It's so that we can efficiently allocate resources.

01:02:41
That's what you learn and you know, E com one or whatever

01:02:45
consumers voting with their feet saying I want more dollars to go

01:02:48
to Palantir. Well, I want more dollars to go

01:02:51
to pick your favorite company. Open door is a great thing

01:02:56
because consumers should get a voice in where do resources get

01:03:00
allocated. So I think it's great when

01:03:01
retail vote when retail participate.

01:03:04
So I think the company had been broken and couldn't communicate

01:03:08
it's vision purpose at all. And fortunately some set of

01:03:12
retail people figured it out that like, here's the high level

01:03:15
argument. Residential real estate has not

01:03:18
been affected by technology period.

01:03:20
It's still homes are still basically bought and sold the

01:03:23
same way they have forever. It's the largest asset class in

01:03:26
the asset class in the world. What's the chance of the next 20

01:03:30
years that that's true? Pretty low.

01:03:32
What's the single best company with the best opportunity to

01:03:36
improve through technology the process of buying a home?

01:03:39
It's open door. That's the investment

01:03:41
hypothesis. Now, delivering on that is very

01:03:44
difficult. It requires lots of

01:03:45
orchestrated, talented people working together and innovating.

01:03:49
The fact that the company wasn't able to communicate that and

01:03:52
convey that is intellectually bankrupt.

01:03:55
The fact that some retail investors figured it out is

01:03:57
great. That's what propelled the stock

01:03:59
to increase because like AI don't like my real estate

01:04:01
agents. I don't like the real estate

01:04:02
process. I want this fixed.

01:04:03
I'm going to give my money effectively to support a company

01:04:06
that wants to do this. And then cash takes over with an

01:04:09
explicit vision of making the process of buying and selling

01:04:11
homes easier and encouraging home buying like homes, like

01:04:15
home ownership. The company's mission is to

01:04:17
encourage more people to be homeowners because when you're a

01:04:20
homeowner, you're a better citizen.

01:04:22
Like there's lots of evidence in every possible way, way.

01:04:24
And so we want to encourage home ownership and we're in the

01:04:26
process. Of what's going to cause like an

01:04:27
inflection point, like I feel like a lot of this is still sort

01:04:30
of the big the company has been so.

01:04:32
We have this cool thing that actually, as far as I know, no

01:04:34
other public company has done. So every Tuesday night we update

01:04:37
our metrics on like how many homes we bought.

01:04:40
We, it's called the accountability index or

01:04:41
something. You can just watch it every

01:04:43
Tuesday night at 6:00 PM. And you know, since he's taken

01:04:46
over in October, we've massively increased our growth.

01:04:51
Re secondarily, this will play out, you know, more as we do

01:04:54
earnings on the profits, but we're doing better than we ever

01:04:58
have. We're better at pricing.

01:05:00
Our pricing engine was broken. It wasn't using any modern AI

01:05:03
techniques. Like basically the company had

01:05:05
been in like maintenance mode from a technology perspective

01:05:08
for like 3 to five years. And he's already in like 4

01:05:11
months or so fixed huge fraction of that.

01:05:14
And then you'll see us doing some creative things as well

01:05:19
that are a little bit beyond the core of just buying and selling

01:05:22
homes. Adjacent people call it, you

01:05:24
know, technology, adjacent products and services.

01:05:26
And we're basically following the Carvada playbook truthfully,

01:05:29
which is intentional. Carvada is 100.

01:05:31
Well, they're probably down a bit, but they're recently $100

01:05:34
billion company allowing you to get an instant offer for your

01:05:38
auto, more competitive market and smaller market Tam than open

01:05:42
door actually. So we want to follow their

01:05:44
playbook. I've always been a fan of the

01:05:45
Carvada model since 2016. I've been like, we're on the

01:05:47
Carvada, can't we just follow the ground on the model?

01:05:50
Like we should communicate this to investors both.

01:05:52
Well, anyway, so that's what we're doing.

01:05:55
I think it'll be successful. But obviously, you know, we have

01:05:57
a whole new executive team, like literally a whole new executive

01:06:00
team. So CAS started four months ago.

01:06:02
We have new CFO, new president, new COO.

01:06:06
So it's not going to all the metrics aren't going to change

01:06:10
like immediately, but they're all moving in the right way.

01:06:14
What is this patch by the way? It's a brand.

01:06:16
It's. You, just like your producer

01:06:18
said, don't wear a brand. You said don't wear any branded

01:06:21
clothes like for the podcast I'm like.

01:06:25
I didn't know if it was like, yeah, it was, no.

01:06:26
It's like a golden goose or whatever the sneaker brand.

01:06:30
Is the I mean, if the, and we're about to wrap up, but like if

01:06:34
the Democrats win the midterms, is that a repudiation of Trump

01:06:38
or is. It well, historically the out

01:06:41
the out of power party has won midterms.

01:06:44
So the historical precedent would be that.

01:06:46
I do think it depends on the magnitude like there's I don't

01:06:51
think that's going to happen. By the way, I think the

01:06:52
Republicans will absolutely control the Senate.

01:06:55
The House is more volatile in many ways, partially with all

01:06:58
redistricting left to right and don't even know, no one know

01:07:00
even knows who's voting for who. But I think the House will be

01:07:03
more volatile. But as far as I can tell, the

01:07:05
economy is improving a lot and people are starting to notice

01:07:07
like I saw the right track, wrong track metric.

01:07:09
Is your family better off? All those are moving a lot in

01:07:12
the last you're. Predicting Republicans win the

01:07:15
Senate? What?

01:07:15
About the Senate and maybe even gain seats.

01:07:17
The House is probably a 5050 deal, but I think the first

01:07:21
derivative because I think people do care about their

01:07:23
pocketbook, like their conventional wisdom and

01:07:25
politics. I, I think Trump will be

01:07:27
successful. Also one of the magics.

01:07:31
There's several pieces of magic between to talk about Trump.

01:07:33
Like there's lots of things to criticize.

01:07:34
I'll grant you like, trust me and think there are a lot of

01:07:37
things in the public domain and you can criticize it, but people

01:07:40
haven't focused enough on the magic of Trump.

01:07:42
He is excellent at motivating people who don't vote often to

01:07:46
vote. And when he's not on the ballot,

01:07:48
which is typically the case in the midterm, the Republican

01:07:52
Party suffers because they're voting for him.

01:07:54
They're not voting for Republicans.

01:07:57
I think he now there's so much evidence of this.

01:07:59
He understands that and he understands if he wants to

01:08:01
accomplish his goals for the last two.

01:08:04
Years. He needs a loom large.

01:08:05
He needs he needs Republicans like otherwise there's stuff you

01:08:08
can do in foreign policy and everything, but fundamentally to

01:08:11
move the needle. And I think he ran for president

01:08:13
to move the needle since he got. So he moves immigration

01:08:16
officials out of Maine to make it a little friendlier.

01:08:19
Clearly not a winner. He, he, he will do well.

01:08:22
But I think, I think it really does matter.

01:08:25
The economy continues to grow, but.

01:08:26
You're predicting close call. I think we're going to.

01:08:29
I think the Republicans, we will win the House.

01:08:31
But it's not. It's.

01:08:32
Not obvious, I think the standard I'm very confident in,

01:08:35
but anyway I think it would. Be and and we're going to

01:08:37
continue to have free and fair elections in the United States.

01:08:40
Oh yeah, well, we're trying to pass voter ID like.

01:08:43
Don't you think passports would be good for Democrats?

01:08:45
Like more Democrats have passports, Yeah.

01:08:49
I'm fine with passports, give me a library card, I'm probably

01:08:52
fine with that. Like I just think it's insane

01:08:54
you can't go to a pharmacy literally downstairs and buy

01:08:56
Sudafed without without an ID. But you think Trump will run for

01:08:59
a third term? No, I don't.

01:09:01
I don't think so. I for lots of reasons.

01:09:07
I, I, I think he enjoys like occasionally.

01:09:11
You know how I should say this? Annoying people like he likes

01:09:15
tweeting people like teasing people.

01:09:17
It's hard to know when he's joking.

01:09:18
I think the literally serious thing.

01:09:20
I think that. Hasn't been true.

01:09:22
No, but I think you get a feel for when.

01:09:24
He did some of the tariffs. People thought he was joking.

01:09:27
No, well, I never thought joke about tariffs.

01:09:28
I believe in tariffs. Note actually believes in

01:09:31
tariffs is one of the things we're very aligned on.

01:09:34
But I knew he really strongly believed in it and wanted the

01:09:37
key was to get a Treasury Secretary and commerce secretary

01:09:40
who believed in tariffs because a lot of Wall Street people like

01:09:43
are blind about the benefits of tariffs.

01:09:45
And so he got a team that believes in tariffs and that's

01:09:48
why they were able to execute. And that's why we're seeing the

01:09:50
dividends. The reindustrialization is very

01:09:52
real, the investment in America, but more importantly, the trade

01:09:55
deficit has changed radically in nine months.

01:09:58
Nobody, almost nobody, including his most positive supporters,

01:10:01
thought he could change it that quick and that fast.

01:10:03
So tariffs are great. I think you're gonna see, you

01:10:06
know. We go all day.

01:10:07
I mean, he's driving Canada into China's arms as.

01:10:10
We well Canada doesn't have a choice.

01:10:11
Like they can fake this. He already cancelled.

01:10:13
I think Carney already cancelled that deal and he announced it.

01:10:16
There are different pieces of it that are.

01:10:18
Coming on, I mean like, look. Anyway, we clearly see the

01:10:21
political world very differently.

01:10:22
I appreciate you coming on. That is fair.

01:10:24
Well, let's check in after the midterm campaign.

01:10:26
It'll. Be great.

01:10:28
Well, he's down in China. We both are bullish on, I don't

01:10:30
know capitalism in tech, but the rest of it and we'll.

01:10:34
Go. You don't.

01:10:36
Like fraud, but you're willing to tolerate the candidate who's

01:10:40
pardoning a bunch of people? I don't know.

01:10:42
I think all we can follow. Together.

01:10:44
By definition, all pardons in history are the people who are

01:10:46
convicted, and so Trump does not have the most partings.

01:10:49
All right. All right, Keith, thanks so much

01:10:50
for coming on the newcomer. Pleasure.

01:10:53
Thanks so much for listening to the Newcomer Podcast.

01:10:55
I'm Eric Newcomer. Follow us on Substack at

01:10:58
newcomer.co. Hope you enjoyed the episode.

01:11:01
See you next week.