Keith Rabois joins the Newcomer Podcast for a wide-ranging conversation that moves between tech, venture capital, and politics.On the tech side, we start with Brex being acquired by Capital One and what that means for Ramp. Rabois argues that banks won’t build the “finance organization of the 21st century,” and frames Ramp’s ambition as building the CFO’s “eyes, ears, and actions” across a company. We also discuss Rippling’s strategy, investor responsibilities around integrity and ethics, and how he thinks about “barrels and ammunition” when companies try to do many things at once.From there we get into AI investing and Rabois’s view that what matters is the end-customer value proposition and the durability of the advantage. He explains Rogo as an AI “copilot” for investment bankers and talks about workflow and data moats.The episode also turns heavily to politics and current events: Trump, tech’s relationship with the administration, immigration (including H-1B and O-1 visas), free speech, and foreign policy debates (including China, Europe, and the Middle East). We also argue through a recent incident involving law enforcement and protest/obstruction, and close with Opendoor—where Rabois lays out his view of the company’s turnaround, retail investors, and the company’s weekly “accountability” metrics updates.
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What's the turn around plan man? They want these shares going up.
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You don't get shot for that. Like This is America.
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This is a great shot for that. They're not abducting 5 year old
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children. I mean like that someone should
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sue you. For that, Keith Raboy has been
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ranked among the top 10 venture capitalists in the world.
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His husband is in the Trump administration.
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He's buddies with Peter Thiel. His boss is the guy that kicked
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you off the beach in California. I've been talking to Keith since
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I started reporting on Silicon Valley.
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I simultaneously respect the hell out of him as an investor
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while being in curated by his insufferable tweeting in this
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episode, which was hot off Keith hanging out with the Vice
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president JD Vance. We battled it out and didn't
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leave anything on the table. This is the newcomer podcast.
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Keith, welcome to the show. Pleasure to be with you.
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All right. Do you want to talk about tech
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or politics more? That's that's the first
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question. Well, do you want to write about
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tech or? Politics more, but you were
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saying just before we got on that what politics is a little
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bit you're junk food and. Tech is like chocolate.
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It's like tastes good, but it it's not nutritionist like it.
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You know, my job is to find the next best founders, the next
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generation of iconic companies. It's not to be engaged in
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politics. Yes, as companies grow up, they
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have political interest because we've all learned and they have
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to gauge in the political sphere.
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But that's not what I do for a living, right?
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We'll get into both, Sure. I'm excited.
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We obviously have a long history.
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I've profiled you. You let me needle you sometimes,
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which I always enjoy. I feel like I love I'm I'm
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conflicted in that I'm liberal while you're right wing but I
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like the contrarian fighter non boring personality.
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So I'm endlessly conflicted on you at once.
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Celebrating your willingness to say whatever you think while
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sort of disagreeing with a ton of it.
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At least the non tech pieces of it.
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Well, as you know, I I work with colleagues who have
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disagreements as well. Disagree.
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Yeah. All right, so let's start with
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some big tech news. Breck's sold to Capital One, I
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joked. You know, Eric Lyman's already
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been acquired by Capital One before.
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Obviously, it was a great company.
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Paribus. You know, you were a Series A
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investor in Ramp, a great investment when you were a seed.
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Seed, OK. And then you led the Series A
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foundation. OK, well, so yeah, so very
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biased. You're also you have exposure to
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Ripling, which I want to talk about in this whole thing
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through Founders Fund as well. But starting with the Breck sale
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and what it means for Ramp. What is your take?
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Well, I'm excited because there's going to be 1 modern
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technology company. It's not going to be Capital
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One. Like, the history of technology
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and financial services has never been LED since the 1960s through
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large banks. That's not going to change
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because they acquired Prax. So if you want to build a
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finance organization for the 21st century or the 22nd
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century, are you going to rely upon a technology startup like
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Ramp or are you going to go to any bank in the world?
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You're not going to go to any bank in the world.
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So it's cleared. The rest of the future is Ramp
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or nothing. What about Mercury?
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I'm not as familiar with them honestly, so I shouldn't really
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comment. We don't really intercept.
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We don't really interact with them or they're not.
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They don't seem to be competitive, but I don't have a
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lot of visibility. I just bank with them.
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So I'm like, oh, it's yeah, I agree with you that as a small
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growing company, I don't really want to go to a bank.
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I'm always having to like call JP Morgan when I have some
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problem with that bank account. Where is Mercury?
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Yeah, I don't, I don't know Mercury.
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I haven't used them, I haven't studied them and I don't know if
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they really conflict with my investments.
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So unusually, don't have an opinion.
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The do you feel like you guys Dalian may be a little bit more
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than you, but I think you some danced on Brex's grave a little
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bit too much aren't where you're you're not going to celebrate
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founders. Well, no, I mean, look, they
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quit. That's a good, it's a good
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outcome for them and probably for most of their employees.
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That's fine. We're in the business of
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building a trillion dollar company at ramp.
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I will be very disappointed if they're not worth hundreds of
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billions, like literally, personally disappointed.
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And we, this is what we talk about as a word.
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When Eric Cream and Zach Franklin and I get together,
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it's like, look, we can skate to 100 billion, but our ambitions
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about changing society and changing the way organizations
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are built and the way finance works should propel us to a much
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broader, much bigger ambition and the concomitant valuation
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that's associated with that. So I'm focused on the future
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ramp. I don't really care about
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Breck's. People think about it, you know,
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corporate credit card that helps you cut spending, what's what
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gets them to the next level. Yeah.
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So the next level is, is pretty straightforward.
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This CFO does care about cutting expenses, right.
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CFO's, controllers on down and we started there.
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We're going to save you time and money and but the CFO doesn't
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have the ability to stitch together all of their policies,
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which ramp does do. Now you can take corporate
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policies and implement them on the cards auto programmatically,
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but they don't recognize and reconcile like revenue against
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this data, against cost, against payroll.
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If you were the CF OS eyes and ears of the entire company and
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ACFO could literally run in a large organization and have
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complete transparency, transparency, complete
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visibility, all the data integrations.
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That's the future. Someone's going to build a
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company where the CFO sits around and maybe has almost no
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colleagues for a public company. And because they have all the
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data plumbing together, that's why the bank can't build this.
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Like, you know how many integrations you need to do on
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different data structure, data, unstructured data, how to
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synthesize it. You need AUI layer like.
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Eric and Cream, the founders of Ramp have clearly leaned into AI
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very strategically and both in marketing and in the actual
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product, which has been savvy. That sort of leads us into now
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that Ramp and Brex. I mean, there could be some
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collision. Obviously Capital One wants to
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compete with Ramp, but for the Silicon Valley story, is it
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going to be Ramp and Rippling these days or do you?
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I don't see a head to head competition.
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Yeah. Again, you know, I'm not
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directly involved in rippling. You're right.
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As you know, AGPI Founders Fund we invested in.
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The biggest regret of my career is that I've talked about in
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other podcasts is I gave Parker a term sheet for the seed round.
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It was just a little too cheap on the valuation.
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Gary Tan, Gary. Tan Yeah.
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And Parker just wanted me to raise it a little bit and they
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didn't. And I still have nightmares,
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like, almost every day about this.
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Like, you know, Parker actually responded to one of my tweets
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about the nightmares. So I love Ripley.
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I love Parker. I helped actually him close Matt
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to join the company. Matt McGinnis So, you know, I'm
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a big fan. I don't think there's as much
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overlap as people think. Yes, at the margin, both
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companies have massive ambitions.
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And anytime you have two companies with massive ambitions
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that have some directional overlap, there's probably some,
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you know, conflict at the margins.
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But it's it's not something I think of as like an existential
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like fight. You, you, you.
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I mean, they both want to be the software of record for a
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business, right? I mean, Parker wants to be
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Ripley. Wants to be the software record,
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you know, system of record. He's always been interested in
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that space forever ramp. I don't think we think of it
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that way. We think we want to be the eyes,
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ears and actions. For the CFO, it's a little bit
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different. So imagine work day but for a
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CFO is probably a better metaphor.
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So, Rippling, do you think Rippling's strategy of, you
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know, sort of cobbling one startup on top of another, like,
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gets a little unfocused? I, I think they're doing, I
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don't, I don't see evidence of that, let's say in metrics or
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performance. I think it can be dangerous as a
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strategy independent of rippling, quad rippling if you
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try to do too many things. I think that is pretty
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precarious. And so you have to be very
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judicious. And it's a function of uses,
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metaphor, barrels and ammunition.
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It's a function of talent. You can only do the number of
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things you can do in parallel is dictated by the number of
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barrels you have in a company. And if you have 10 barrels, you
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can do 10 things in parallel successfully and safely.
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If you have 3 and you try to do 10 things, you may break
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everything. And so I don't know how many
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barrels Parker has sitting around.
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And what is your Do you think Deal broke the law?
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You know, like I'll, I'll say I, I used to be a litigator.
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I have not read the pleadings. Like I've not personally read
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the docs from the Twitter exchange, like meeting the
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superficial feed. I see it does look that way.
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But again, I have not double clicked.
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I have another time to double click and read all this stuff.
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If I really wanted to have an opinion, I would read the
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documents myself and I would have a strong opinion.
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I'm just too busy doing other things.
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I'm not an investor in deal and I'm not really direct, you know,
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participating in rippling. So I'm just kind of, I track it,
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but I don't, I don't really have an opinion.
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Do you do you think investor I mean, RIP sorry, Andreessen
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Horowitz is really bear hug deal.
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Like do you think you know they they were the board member on
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synapse like how how much do you think investors need to hold a
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hard line against fraud? Or you know the lesson from
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Zenovitz in some way. And you know, I'm a defender of
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Parker was I always support the founder.
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I don't know what are the limits of.
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Well, I think there's, you know, everybody has their definition
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of integrity. I think that's critical.
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And like, you know, for note and I did a joint podcast recently
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when we talked about Jack Albin asked us like directly, is
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there, you know, one thing that's like non negotiable and
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we both have the same response immediately.
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It's like ethics integrity. So I don't think in compromise,
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for example, like when Parker was pitching us for the seed
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round of ripling, he only got two term sheets.
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By the way, Gary Tan and me were the only two term sheets.
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The. Key, the key thing I wanted to
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hear, my partners wanted to hear is what lessons did he take away
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from Zenefits? That was all we we knew he'd be
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like successful and he'd be able to get traction.
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And he knows what he's doing. He doesn't build products and
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company. But the question for us was, has
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he learned based upon that experience of Zenefits or is he
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going to do the same things? And we obviously extended term
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sheets. So we believed that he had
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internalized some core lessons. It was a different person.
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Let's move to AI. You know, you've done some
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meaningful marketplace investments.
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What is the future of marketplaces in an AI era?
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Like do you see these sort of agents existing in marketplaces
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have feels so like it feels like Silicon Valley has moved on from
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marketplaces? Well, I don't think in terms of
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labels like marketplaces, you're right.
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I invested in a fair and I like marketplaces, but it's more that
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I found the founder fascinating and I felt like that there's a
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business opportunity and marketplace was a tactic to me.
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It's not like the Bill Gurley like writing about blog posts
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about marketplaces and I'm. Looking for all these
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marketplaces? You're a DoorDash is a
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marketplace in some ways, but that wasn't what resonated with
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me. It was like Tony, you know,
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interned with me at Square. I thought Tony's phenomenal.
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I immediately grocked when he and Evan actually pitched me.
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Evan Moore pitched me on what DoorDash was, was this is the
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I'm Hungry button on your phone, kind of an Andrew Mason a
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concept. It's like, yeah, I'm hungry.
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I can imagine people pressing this all the time.
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Now the hard part was 'cause you deliver that food reliably
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across vast selection on time, like, but the demand was obvious
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and the marketplace just is a component.
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So I don't really think in terms of people's labels, even AI,
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which is, you know, the conventional label of the day
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that it is your topic. You've sort of pushed back a
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little bit on the AI everything or you have. 70% of my
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investments over the lot since I came back to KV which is a
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little over 2 years. 70% of my investments are AI, but it I
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don't like look and say I want to meet AI companies.
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The way they deliver a value to some end customer is through the
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introduction of AI. And that to me is the critical
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part. And then there's a set of
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questions around can they deliver this value sustainably,
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durably given all the progress and technology, you know,
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through labs and Neo labs, all stuff like is there a durability
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there? But it's, it's more to me, the
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value proposition of who, what value you're creating for the
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world or for an industry. And then what's the secret sauce
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that you're you're using that no one else?
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What's the why now? And what's the sustainability,
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the accumulating advantages of why you can do this forever?
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So let's make this tangible. You know, one company I'm
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excited about and you're very invested in is Rogo.
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We had them on stage early at Cerebral Valley.
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That's true. Explain.
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Yeah. The the theory behind Rogo and
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what? You said so in the short term, I
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think you can think of Rogo as copilot for investment bankers.
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Like investment bankers do a lot of grunt work.
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Like we're in New York City, like a lot of people here are
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investment bankers. It's one of the worst jobs on
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the planet as far as I can tell. But it's prestigious and lots
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of, you know, fancy college grads want to be I bankers.
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What they do or, you know, all day is create presentations.
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That's all they do. Stitch together these
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presentations 24/7, turn it around and, you know, pitch
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clients on like here's targets for you and all that stuff.
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It's a lot of road work, but glorified road work.
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And these people are compensated heavily, but they work 24/7.
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Could you use AI to automatically generate these
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presentations with the proper data, with the right target
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list? Absolutely.
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And so that's what we do is we make the life of the investment
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bankers better, more accurate, faster and probably less
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expensive over time to customers.
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How capable is it right now? It's really good.
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I mean like so we there's really roughly 30 top tier investment
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banks in the world. I suspect we'll have almost all
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of them as well they all want. To know they all want to make
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sure they're not missing something that's.
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Not yeah, but we should. So one thing we do differently,
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Arogo, we have always cared about from the beginning, since
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I got involved at the Series A, So I got involved.
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We care about the usage metrics like literally MAUDAU kind of
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consumer metrics like if you're building the right product, you
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want the entire banking team to be using you frequently,
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constantly. And that's the right metric, not
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revenue. Revenue's a byproduct of
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succeeding. We so we don't just try to sell
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and then because there is a lot of budget, you know, allocated
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to AI, check this out. We don't care about that.
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We care about DAUS&MAUS. What's the mode to protect them
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from Open AI, Khosla investment or Anthropic?
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Great question. You know, Gabe and I chat about
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this all the time, like all the time.
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I I think there's workflow moats like like the construction of
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what an investment banker has to do is not just leveraging
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ChatGPT yes, that can be a useful ingredient.
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Secondly, there's data modes. There's a lot of proprietary
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data in this business like they're.
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I was shocked actually, after I met Gabe of how many successful
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start-ups or companies that have like hundreds of millions of
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dollars and are worth billions of dollars that are just
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proprietary financial services data.
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There's like, you know, something like 5 or 10 of these
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and that I wasn't familiar with maybe all, but maybe one of
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them. So you need access to that data.
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Many or most of these companies are not giving it to Open AI or
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Tropic because they actually don't want to protect their own
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business. We actually do have the rights
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to use many of them through Rogo.
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So I think that's a Bloomberg. Bloomberg I don't think we use.
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I'm sure they would. Well, it's less important in
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different parts of banks use Bloomberg differently.
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The I bankers are not as addicted to Bloomberg and
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Bloomberg chat as some other parts of the bank.
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OK. Or at least that's what I've
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been told. Right, Right, Right.
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I haven't been an I banker. Yeah, but I had friends who a
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lot of my friends growing up from college became I bankers.
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Now, now, lawyers are making big bucks.
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I mean, obviously you've done very well, but for a while it
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seemed like a foolish career. If you're up.
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No, well this is the case. I started as a like high end
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corporate Wall Street law firm in New York City at silver
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problem, Silver problem. And what happened was all of the
00:15:44
smartest corporate attorneys, transactional attorneys became
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eye bankers. They all went begin like wanted
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to go to work at Goldman because they make so much more money.
00:15:52
But I was a litigator so I didn't have that option.
00:15:54
So I had to go to tech. It was like I was a desperate
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desperate like height of the Internet bubble.
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January 2000. And was PayPal the entry?
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Point Well, no. I started at a company that no
00:16:05
one remembers called voter.com. It's actually a good idea.
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It's involving politics. Actually.
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Politics meets text. So you can see why it was
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interesting to me. And we were trying to
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personalize content back in 2000.
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The basic concept is a lot of people who say, are you
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interested in politics more than a majority of Americans say no,
00:16:23
but most Americans have an issue or two that they care about a
00:16:26
lot about. Like it could be taxes or it
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could be abortion or it could be some foreign policy, Israel,
00:16:30
Iran, whatever the case is. So the question was in the
00:16:34
beginning of the Internet sort of was could you narrow cast
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content that people would read and consume even if they
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rejected politics, quad politics.
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So that's what we did and we're doing a pretty good job of it
00:16:46
actually. Then the Internet bubble
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occurred and we'd kind of built the startup assuming capital was
00:16:50
cheap and oxygen, you know, and fuel would be forever available.
00:16:55
And that changed very quickly in March 2000, and then definitely
00:16:59
changed forever in June of 2000. And we had a very young, sharp,
00:17:04
but young 19 year old CEO drop out Duke.
00:17:06
He wasn't willing to make dramatic changes which would
00:17:09
have been required to save the company.
00:17:10
I still think the idea generally is conceptually pretty sound.
00:17:14
But that was my first start. And as that was that company
00:17:16
started struggling and I got frustrated the CEO for not being
00:17:19
decisive. I called up my friend Peter
00:17:22
Thiel and I said, hey, what do you think I should do?
00:17:24
It's just pure advice. And he said, well, I could
00:17:27
introduce you to a lot. The company was more on the
00:17:29
West, East Coast. So I was living in Boston and in
00:17:31
DC, and Peter's like, I could introduce you to a lot of people
00:17:35
in Silicon Valley, but why don't you just come work for us?
00:17:37
I was like, you know, what do you want me to do?
00:17:40
And six weeks later, I had already moved to California and
00:17:44
started in the office of PayPal. This.
00:17:47
Is a fraught question, but the PayPal mafia is all over the
00:17:52
Epstein files with Reed and Elon fighting with each other.
00:17:58
I what do you make of the whole? What is your view on like how
00:18:01
much we should be focused on this or not?
00:18:04
You know, I don't know, it's one of these again, a topic that I
00:18:07
have not like, yes, I see in my feed Elon.
00:18:11
It's hard to miss Elon. No, no if.
00:18:13
A court question is like, how does the world work?
00:18:15
You're a little closer to it than.
00:18:17
I know I know some of the people, not Epstein obviously
00:18:20
never met them, but I read, you know, these threads and I don't
00:18:26
have the time to dive into like who said what about who and how
00:18:30
true or false is it like that? Like I do need to concentrate on
00:18:35
like what I do for a living. This.
00:18:37
Is just I feel like the answer is this is a loser to talk about
00:18:40
or like how can you not be curious about it like.
00:18:43
I mean, I'm curious, but as an amateur, like right, like like
00:18:46
pure amateur. And I think some of the stuff
00:18:49
with Elon and Reid going back and forth is an amateur.
00:18:51
I can't tell the difference. Like I, you know, I have
00:18:53
opinions on some things I've read in the news about Epstein,
00:18:58
but it's, it's more just I have opinions about like, you know,
00:19:02
anything else in the news. How it gets to like How sincere
00:19:07
is some of the fighting on Twitter?
00:19:08
Right is. It feels like one of the main
00:19:10
topics that they're just like weaponizing against each other
00:19:14
when because it's like mutually assured destruction or they
00:19:17
instead of mutually assured destruction where they would
00:19:19
stay away from it. Now it's like everybody has put
00:19:21
their foot on the gas and is just throwing accusations
00:19:25
around. Fairly, I think.
00:19:25
I think that has changed. The dynamic seems to be very
00:19:28
common on. You know that dynamic.
00:19:31
Are you out on Reed? Like I feel like they it used to
00:19:34
be there was sort of a friendly relationship between the right
00:19:37
wing members of the PayPal mafia.
00:19:39
Yeah. I mean, I haven't, I don't have
00:19:41
any problems with Reed. He has, in my opinion, the wrong
00:19:44
views on many topics. But I also think he's very good
00:19:48
at what he does. He's funded some things that I
00:19:51
think a mistake and, you know, as he looks back on his life and
00:19:56
realize probably shouldn't have funded, but like lots of people
00:20:00
have wrong views and sometimes they have epiphanies.
00:20:03
Like sometimes people wake up and realize, like I used to
00:20:05
think acts and now I think why? Like this happens to people.
00:20:09
So I'm somewhat optimistic. This is, I grew up in Macon, GA
00:20:13
and, you know, I had all these Christian friends when I was an
00:20:15
atheist. And I'd be like, how can you
00:20:16
think I'm going to go to hell? And they'd say, well, we think
00:20:18
you're going to convert, you're going to be saved.
00:20:20
That's sort of what you're saying.
00:20:22
I'm holding out for his soul to be redeemed.
00:20:24
So yeah. So there's I mean, so I grew up
00:20:26
actually the opposite way. I don't know if you know this.
00:20:29
My parents were pretty liberal. They were like the impeach Nixon
00:20:32
people running around. I was like, if you watch the old
00:20:35
my parents. Were liberal to be.
00:20:36
Clear. Have you ever seen Alex Keaton
00:20:37
in Family Ties growing up? No, this is a great TV show
00:20:40
about this like conservative preppy kid with like hippie
00:20:43
parents. That was like my family growing
00:20:46
up. So, you know, I, I do think
00:20:48
people do change, though. I have seen important people in
00:20:51
my life evolve their views. And one of the reasons why I
00:20:55
proselytize, you know, about topics, politics, whatever, is
00:20:59
occasionally you say something that resonates and that's a big
00:21:03
deal. Like, so for example, I'll tell
00:21:05
you how I became a conservative. It's kind of interesting.
00:21:07
I remember listening to my parents about all these views.
00:21:12
And then Ronald Reagan got elected and they were convinced
00:21:16
that he was going to blow up the world.
00:21:18
They're convinced that he hated Jewish people.
00:21:21
And then he got elected. Are you Jewish?
00:21:22
I don't actually. Yeah.
00:21:23
OK. My wife.
00:21:24
Extremely Jewish meaning like very.
00:21:28
My daughter is now Jewish, so yeah, anyway.
00:21:30
So anyway, one of those people. Said that but but so they they
00:21:32
have all these views about Reagan.
00:21:34
Literally he was kind of a nuclear, you know, Armageddon
00:21:37
and like, anyway, he got elected in like on day one.
00:21:40
Everything started getting better.
00:21:41
The hostages got returned from Iran, the economy started
00:21:43
growing, blah, blah, blah. America was back, you know, we
00:21:46
won the hockey game, you know, all this stuff.
00:21:47
So so I was like. That's a story like so my this
00:21:51
running what happened to me got returned when he came back.
00:21:54
So, well, it was because they were afraid of Reagan.
00:21:56
Like these were like, he's gonna bomb.
00:21:58
He's a bad guy. No, they.
00:21:59
Were like he's gonna bomb us, he's not fucking around it's a
00:22:02
little bit like what they're gonna see about Trump, like
00:22:04
Trump's not screwing around like with Iran.
00:22:06
Yeah, that regime is gonna end. It's just a question of how
00:22:09
painful is it and like period like.
00:22:12
It's going on for a long time. Like I there's to bite on Iran
00:22:16
specifically. There's a funny dynamic on
00:22:18
Twitter, which is like people like Josh Wolf being, why isn't
00:22:21
the left talking about this more?
00:22:22
Which I don't understand what we're supposed to be calling for
00:22:24
like. Well, that's it's a good
00:22:26
question of what you should do, but it is it's absolutely the
00:22:30
case that the current government is slaughtering it is the
00:22:33
people. It's terrible.
00:22:34
Right. So like but the the same people
00:22:36
who are whining about other topics seem to be.
00:22:39
Very normally you whine in America when you're trying to
00:22:41
move the American regime. What?
00:22:42
What are we supposed to whine about on Iran?
00:22:45
Well, I, I do think people should be protesting like
00:22:48
there's official organizations that are supposed to protect
00:22:50
civilians. Very they were very critical in
00:22:53
the other parts of the Middle East and suddenly they're all
00:22:55
dead Sonic. Like there's no protests at
00:22:57
campuses, there's no celebrities wearing pens, none of this.
00:23:00
It is a little interesting. I'd argue it's because of
00:23:04
anti-Semitism and a bunch of other reasons.
00:23:06
But like fundamentally Josh isn't wrong at all.
00:23:09
I still think though, that doesn't give you the answer,
00:23:12
which is what are you going to do?
00:23:14
And I actually think this is a challenge for the
00:23:16
administration. Like I know many of the people
00:23:18
in the administration and. Your husband is in the
00:23:21
administration. Yeah, he doesn't work directly
00:23:23
on this on this specific. You are close to it, but I, I.
00:23:27
Don't I? I know, mostly.
00:23:28
You know vans pretty. Well, I know JD, we just, I just
00:23:30
had JD over for dinner. And so I and I know Marco and I
00:23:35
think he's phenomenal too. And I know Scott and I think
00:23:37
these are all great people. They're working on this.
00:23:40
But if they ask me, sometimes when friends of mine ask me, I
00:23:43
have an idea, like here's what you should do.
00:23:47
Ask me exactly what to do here. I'm not so sure I have the right
00:23:51
idea. Like I'm a dumb tech guy.
00:23:52
I don't know. No, no, no, no.
00:23:54
I'm like, no, I would never say that.
00:23:55
No, I do have ideas like if you said what we should do about
00:23:57
healthcare, I have some ideas. Or if you said like for example
00:24:00
on Iran, I do have one specific idea that I think Trump should
00:24:02
have done like a month ago. He's he should have absolutely.
00:24:05
He said, you know, stop murdering protesters.
00:24:09
He should have said you also must turn on the Internet now.
00:24:13
Like he should have coupled the two and like, yeah, I think it
00:24:17
would have been effective. And then it would have been like
00:24:18
transparent of like what's going on and it would have been harder
00:24:21
for them to mask all the. Atrocities, but they have still
00:24:23
been killing protesters. Yeah, no, I know.
00:24:26
They're. Going to take action like I, I
00:24:28
just think that a, it was a question of what action to take.
00:24:32
Like they'll be effective as opposed to taking action for
00:24:34
action's sake. Like I think one thing the
00:24:35
administration has done that's very impressive actually is many
00:24:38
of us studied poli sci and things like that growing up.
00:24:41
And you had, we'd learn all take all these classes on the lessons
00:24:43
of Vietnam and you know, the more modern lessons from like
00:24:46
other interventions and laws did not go well.
00:24:51
This administration before they took action in Venezuela,
00:24:53
literally consciously sat down and said all the mistakes are
00:24:57
made in the last 30 or 40 years. What were the root causes?
00:25:00
And then how do we avoid them? And they have a a checklist of
00:25:04
like here's the things that our. First principles.
00:25:06
Think, well, like at least try. Like at least what can we learn
00:25:09
from mistakes that the country has made?
00:25:11
So at least we don't repeat the same mistakes and then try to
00:25:14
apply that to what are we going to do in vent as well.
00:25:17
I think they're trying to and we'll see whether they do
00:25:20
successfully figure out what went wrong with other
00:25:23
interventions and wars. And then how could you apply
00:25:26
that to Iran to have a more successful outcome?
00:25:28
And again, we'll see, but it's not easy.
00:25:30
It's not like, oh, just put this troop there, just put that thing
00:25:33
there. So I, I we'll see what they
00:25:36
eventually. Do but I I like the
00:25:37
psychological journey we were going on.
00:25:39
You had liberal parents. They told you the sky was going
00:25:41
to fall. It did.
00:25:42
It did fall and I was like, well, maybe they're wrong about
00:25:44
everything. And I started more.
00:25:47
They were wrong about foreign policy first, actually in this.
00:25:50
War interventionist at the time. Yeah, like I like you.
00:25:53
Supported the war in Iraq? Yeah.
00:25:56
I don't know that specifically about you, but just give your
00:25:58
little. Directionally, probably at the
00:26:00
time, like I don't think I ever explicitly commented on it, but
00:26:04
like probably like I think it's a fair, like the people, let's
00:26:07
put it this way, the people in power were people I supported.
00:26:10
Right. I mean Trump came in obviously
00:26:13
sort of being anti interventionist and now is
00:26:15
interventionist. No, I think that's somewhat,
00:26:19
let's say superficial and not in a dismissive way to you, but
00:26:23
just like a lot of people focus on a couple of his statements.
00:26:30
He's old. He's old school.
00:26:32
My view is he's an old school Teddy Roosevelt meets McKinley.
00:26:36
I've heard you say this. Yeah, he's very Teddy Roosevelt
00:26:40
was very interventionist, but defined to a smaller set of hard
00:26:45
games. Like, I'm going to care about
00:26:47
this, and if I care about this, you're screwed.
00:26:49
Like, like you do not like, but I'm not going to try to do
00:26:53
everything and fix the world in every possible place
00:26:56
simultaneously. But if I tell you don't do that,
00:27:00
you don't want to do that, That's like Trump, more like
00:27:02
Trump, but more like the big stick.
00:27:04
You know the famous thing about Kerry that speaks softly.
00:27:07
He doesn't Trump doesn't follow the speaks softly part, but the
00:27:10
big stick definitely part. And so in the territorial
00:27:13
expansion from the, you know, from McKinney, like, you know,
00:27:16
like Stuart's folly on down and Louisiana Purchase like this
00:27:19
country was built on territorial expansion.
00:27:21
Actually, people also forgot that.
00:27:22
So I don't think Trump is like. You want us to take Greenland?
00:27:26
Oh definitely. We need not take well, no like,
00:27:29
so let's be careful. We definitely need to have
00:27:33
strategic assets and. Let we already had that we we
00:27:37
could do bases. In June, let me, let me, let me
00:27:38
give you the. Example.
00:27:39
And Trump is talking about, like, making US territory.
00:27:42
Yeah. Well, let me give you a very
00:27:43
specific illustration of sometimes why the media doesn't
00:27:45
communicate things well. So they say, OK, we already have
00:27:48
the bases, or we have the right to the bases or whatever the
00:27:51
truth is when you have a base somewhere, and we learn this in
00:27:53
the Middle East all the time. If you want to read about it,
00:27:55
read about Qatar or Turkey bases.
00:27:57
We have base symbol. If you just have a base, you
00:28:00
need the host country's permission to use that for an
00:28:02
active operation. So Turkey can say no even though
00:28:06
we have a base there. You can't.
00:28:08
You can't use our airspace to fly your planes.
00:28:10
Or Qatar can say no. And for a lot of regional
00:28:12
reasons, they often do. If you have actual sovereignty
00:28:16
on the base, Denmark or Greenlee cannot say no to the US
00:28:20
launching a military operation. And that is indispensable.
00:28:23
And it's very different. And so I think that is
00:28:25
fundamental, so. We've never had an issue with
00:28:27
NATO reject like NATO is. No, but like some of this, some
00:28:31
of the countries are a little soft, like Turkey's technically
00:28:34
a NATO country, so actually yes. But we're that's actually some
00:28:36
of the drama NATO as an institution.
00:28:38
I didn't say, I didn't say there hasn't been a NATO country
00:28:41
that's caused this like difficulty.
00:28:43
I I said I did not say that. I did not say that about an
00:28:45
individual. But.
00:28:48
NATO as an. Organization.
00:28:49
Is low is like controlled by the United States.
00:28:51
It's a vehicle. Oh, we're not technically
00:28:53
controlling it, but so, OK. So that's one thing is we
00:28:56
definitely need military control of some bases there, especially
00:29:00
because the, as the Arctic has melted, like the, the, the rush,
00:29:02
you see those plots people have on the Internet of like where
00:29:05
the missiles go, where the Subs go.
00:29:07
So we definitely need to stop that. 2nd, the other big
00:29:11
initiative for this administration is supply chain
00:29:14
for minerals. Like China's been using that as
00:29:16
a very aggressive like sort of piece of leverage against the
00:29:21
United States. And so the from JD on down to
00:29:25
Jacob are working on mineral supply chain.
00:29:29
Greenland has some minerals and we definitely need access to
00:29:33
that. There are lots of other ways to
00:29:34
get access to it. You don't have to like take over
00:29:37
the country or anything. He was never going to invade the
00:29:39
country. That was like silly, like that
00:29:41
was not going to happen. But, and it is I in my view, it
00:29:46
is perfectly fine to use economic leverage to achieve
00:29:49
goals like if we have the biggest economy in the world and
00:29:51
it's growing the fastest, we can definitely tell other countries.
00:29:55
That user to alienate Europe like it's useful you're.
00:29:58
Alienating us. Well, that's yeah.
00:30:00
J DS more right than wrong about this.
00:30:02
Meaning, like, Europe is harassing Jews.
00:30:06
So if you're a Jewish person in the UK, in France, you need to
00:30:11
get out like now. Like, this is really bad.
00:30:14
Like, I hope we do things to encourage those people to move
00:30:16
to the United States so they're safe.
00:30:18
Second, they are cracking down on U.S. companies like action
00:30:23
harassing them or you know, and that's going to have to stop.
00:30:27
Like we are going to use economic, this administration is
00:30:30
going to use what Jacob likes to call economic states craft,
00:30:34
which is we're going to use our economy.
00:30:36
European treatment of Jewish people, but we're getting closer
00:30:39
and closer to the Middle East, which has been extremely
00:30:41
hostile. Well, I think, I think the whole
00:30:43
point is like, we're going to have more Abraham's Accords.
00:30:45
But it's like a different, different set of standards for
00:30:48
one country from the other. Which is supposed to be what?
00:30:51
Well, you'd be safer in Israel. In Europe?
00:30:53
Sure. Israel.
00:30:54
If you're. You'd be safer in the UAE
00:30:57
actually as a Jewish person than in any European country, I'm
00:31:02
pretty sure of that. What's safe is like I wear
00:31:05
loose. I would travel to the UAE
00:31:07
without security. I would not travel to Paris
00:31:10
without security. Really.
00:31:11
You wouldn't go to Paris. 100% no.
00:31:13
Like you're worried you're going to get kidnapped or what's?
00:31:15
Yeah, I would if people identify me as a Jew.
00:31:17
You could not wear Yamaka like in Paris at all.
00:31:20
You would definitely be assaulted like like everybody
00:31:23
like is terrified Jewish star like.
00:31:26
I would not walk down the streets of London or Paris with
00:31:28
the Jew star. I would definitely wear one in
00:31:30
the UAE and maybe even Saudi Arabia.
00:31:32
I don't know that my. My wife is, I mean, pretty
00:31:35
clearly Jewish. We spent two weeks in Paris.
00:31:36
Did she wear did she wear? It doesn't.
00:31:39
I don't want to speak. It's an awkward subject because
00:31:42
I don't want to speak for how other people feel afraid, you
00:31:44
know, the the liberal community comes out I'll.
00:31:47
Tell you Jacob's mom left Parrish, they were born and
00:31:50
raised, lived in Paris forever and they had to escape.
00:31:54
They literally had to move just because of the anti-Semitism.
00:31:59
So we're you're going. To see what you're going to see
00:32:00
there. So we give up the European
00:32:02
Alliance. No, you're we're just let
00:32:04
they're breaking it. We're breaking it.
00:32:05
You're. We're moving on from.
00:32:06
How to? Rethink their first principles
00:32:09
of like. What values do they support?
00:32:12
Like, do they believe in free speech or not?
00:32:13
That's a fundamental tenet of the United States, Is it?
00:32:15
Yes. All right, that I wanted to get
00:32:17
to free speech. I honestly was surprised free
00:32:19
speech wasn't sort of a core drive, that foreign policy was
00:32:22
sort of the. The first starter, well, there
00:32:25
was there wasn't this libertarian, authoritarian like
00:32:28
suppression of free speech back when I was growing up, like if
00:32:30
you're a mod, like a liberal sauce liberal, like the ACLU and
00:32:34
all these people were like very purse speech.
00:32:37
Like they were the ones, you know, suing like Illinois to let
00:32:40
the Nazis protest. Right.
00:32:42
It was the left wing. Yeah, the left wing was free,
00:32:44
more free speech, right? So there wasn't like this
00:32:46
authoritarian, like we're going to stop and suppress ideas we
00:32:50
don't like. It didn't really exist,
00:32:51
certainly not from the left. So like.
00:32:54
You know, and therefore you didn't need to, but you.
00:32:56
Therefore it wasn't. I'm not trying to drag this up,
00:32:58
but you obviously had a very famous example where you use the
00:33:00
word yeah, and you said it was about testing the borders of
00:33:03
free. Stanford was very different.
00:33:05
So I grew up in high school and call it before there is no like
00:33:10
constraints on speech. No one even thought this a good
00:33:12
idea. They'll say you showed up
00:33:13
Stanford and like everybody's on this like crusade to crack down
00:33:17
on ideas that were not what we used to call back then.
00:33:20
The term was multicultural, right?
00:33:22
It's changed various vocabulary. But like that was like really
00:33:25
awakening. Like, I'd never even seen people
00:33:27
like that thought that way that were.
00:33:29
But there was, you know, Stanford in the 80s was at the
00:33:32
cutting edge of like the wolf movement.
00:33:35
We didn't call it that back then, but it was.
00:33:37
And, you know, it was pretty resistant to that.
00:33:39
But. And and so are, you know,
00:33:41
several of my friends who, you know, have to do interesting
00:33:43
things. But yeah, they.
00:33:46
They called for a lot. I mean, what David Sacks and
00:33:49
Peter Thiel wrote out against date rape.
00:33:51
There are a lot of things that they have.
00:33:53
Now. Sort of disavowed.
00:33:57
So David wrote an article. Honestly, I personally have not
00:34:02
read that in 30 years so I don't.
00:34:04
There's someone who's gets very you get very schooled on the
00:34:06
issues you want to talk about, not.
00:34:08
Well, sure. Well, exactly.
00:34:09
I talk about things I know something about.
00:34:10
You want to talk about Iran? I know a decent amount about it.
00:34:12
I talk about the Middle East. I know a decent amount about it.
00:34:14
Sure. You want to talk about
00:34:15
persecution of Jewish people? I know a lot about it.
00:34:17
Sure, there's lots. There's a billion topics like so
00:34:20
yes, when I was young, I used to read the encyclopedia, like
00:34:22
literally cover to cover. Like that's what we do for on
00:34:25
read every volume. An early language.
00:34:28
I don't have time. I serve on 16 boards.
00:34:29
I don't have time to read every issue.
00:34:31
All right, let's let's drill in on free speech.
00:34:33
I won't make you litigate, David said.
00:34:35
Many years. Ago, but we did at the Stanford
00:34:38
Review. We wrote like anti multicultural
00:34:40
things without a doubt. And I think with the benefit of
00:34:43
history, look lots of 1617181920 year olds will write things that
00:34:49
don't look perfect with the beneficiary.
00:34:50
But I think there's going to be a lot of things that Stanford
00:34:52
Review published that look great.
00:34:54
Like I wrote a piece like from Stanford Review on the
00:34:57
brilliance of Ronald Reagan's foreign policy.
00:34:58
That was my first piece. That's the idea, the the
00:35:01
brilliance of Ronald Reagan's foreign policy that that looks
00:35:04
profound. Like, this was when the Cold War
00:35:06
was at its height. And I was like, Ronald Reagan's
00:35:08
going to fix this. He did.
00:35:10
Do you want the United States have a policy of basically
00:35:13
letting white immigrants into the United States and.
00:35:16
My, my views on this are has nothing to do with race.
00:35:20
It is a pure talent question. I think the most talented people
00:35:22
on the planet, we should have been to the United States,
00:35:24
wherever they're from, like whether it's O1 Visa or whatever
00:35:27
you want to call it, like we need to be a magnet for.
00:35:29
But we're letting you know white S Africans come.
00:35:31
It does feel that we're targeting there is a.
00:35:33
Political asylum question there, which also might be relevant to
00:35:36
the Jewish people like if you're persecuted and if you're death
00:35:39
like we may grants asylum, but I think it's.
00:35:41
Something that's when we look at what the Trump administration is
00:35:44
doing, it feels like they are preferencing white, white.
00:35:47
People. I don't think that, and I think
00:35:49
they also isn't. You can correct me if I'm wrong,
00:35:51
but my impression was that they let in 37 people.
00:35:54
Right. I I mean, but a lot of these
00:35:55
things we got. 16 million illegal immigrants
00:35:58
against 37 people, Which one should we be focused on?
00:36:02
The. I think it's 37 people.
00:36:06
The Trump administration does not want to.
00:36:09
They're not like really supporting H1BU visas
00:36:11
particularly. There's controversy within the
00:36:12
administration. I think there's people who are
00:36:14
more enthusiastic about a magnet for talent.
00:36:17
JD Vance is moving away from that.
00:36:19
I think so. I think, I think there's a lot
00:36:24
of pressure on reducing. There's definitely been abuses
00:36:30
of H1B visas where there has been a clear substitution.
00:36:33
Like to the extent tech was misled about what Trump was
00:36:36
going to do, I mean, he goes on the all in position.
00:36:38
He's like, we're going to give everyone, yeah.
00:36:40
And then where it isn't happening like we're a year in.
00:36:44
Well, we're yeah, we're a year in a four.
00:36:46
He has accomplished almost everything else in year 1 which
00:36:48
is very impressive like. Terrorizing Minnesota.
00:36:51
The economy is not rising, he said.
00:36:53
He was going to bring down inflation, not like.
00:36:55
It is. There's no inflation.
00:36:57
Look at true inflation. It's like we're.
00:36:58
Much. Yeah, yeah, we'll go to you can
00:37:00
go to the economy I used. Stay on true inflation.
00:37:02
But this is Yeah, Trump has visas, O1 Visas I.
00:37:05
Personally think we should expand O1 visas.
00:37:08
Like probably 3 acts of them right?
00:37:10
That's my. Opinion.
00:37:10
That is something we are aligned on.
00:37:12
We right. I want immigration.
00:37:13
As I said, so there's. People certainly elite as
00:37:16
people. Tweet at me like oh, you just
00:37:17
repeat whatever. You know, the administration.
00:37:19
No like I actually think we should triple O 1 visas.
00:37:23
It doesn't seem like it's going to happen.
00:37:25
We'll see. I mean, I think the
00:37:27
administration does definitely want to fix lots.
00:37:29
Every everybody, like on all sides of the spectrum thinks our
00:37:32
immigration process is a mess. Like, I don't can you meet
00:37:35
anybody who's like, oh, this is the the system we should have.
00:37:38
So the question is, can you create an alliance of people who
00:37:41
want to fix this and this to get enough votes to change that?
00:37:44
But I think Trump, as he said on All In is more progressive about
00:37:49
bringing talented people to the United States.
00:37:51
Now there is a tricky issue with the CCP.
00:37:54
China has been sending people here and they're clearly have
00:37:57
been examples of imported like material espionage.
00:38:03
And so I think that poses another like a layer to this of
00:38:07
what are we going to do about the CCP sending people here
00:38:11
designed to conduct industrial or otherwise espionage.
00:38:15
So that's also a very. Complicated.
00:38:17
That's a very. It's complicated.
00:38:19
And then like, so let's talk about immigration.
00:38:20
You want to talk about crazy immigration?
00:38:22
We currently have allowed and maybe in the last month this has
00:38:26
changed, but as of a month ago this was not true.
00:38:28
You could as an Iranian citizen, go study nuclear physics at MIT.
00:38:34
I know this is a fact. That's insane why we are
00:38:37
educating the nuclear physicists of Iran to build the bombs.
00:38:41
But we should want them to stay here.
00:38:43
Well, maybe to me. The problem is we didn't.
00:38:45
I don't figure out a way to keep.
00:38:46
People I don't know that citizens of an enemy state like
00:38:48
Iran is technically an enemy state far an adversary defined
00:38:52
in law by Congress. Sure.
00:38:53
I feel like you're bringing up a lot of edge cases.
00:38:55
But no but. This when they're failing to
00:38:57
deliver on the core. They aren't delivering on the
00:38:59
core thing. The core thing they ran on is
00:39:01
we're going to shut down the southern border.
00:39:03
Day one fixed. Like literally fixed Obama.
00:39:06
There were fewer illegal immigrations during Obama.
00:39:09
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no zero What what Obama claims
00:39:14
credit for and I can walk you through stats here is he said we
00:39:17
had more deportations. The reason he can claim that the
00:39:20
status is very misleading, but here's the definition he's
00:39:22
using. If you tried to be an illegal
00:39:24
immigrant and come from Mexico during the Obama administration,
00:39:26
if they caught you and they turned you around, they called
00:39:29
that a deportation. The current definition is if
00:39:33
you're in the interior of the United States is so Obama had
00:39:37
many more stop you. But they counted that
00:39:40
statistically it's true that they did actually turn you
00:39:43
around. So it's not a bad thing.
00:39:45
But the statistics are apples and oranges and every everybody
00:39:47
who studied this would agree with me like this.
00:39:50
So it's but they're both good. I mean, Obama like, look, if you
00:39:53
read Clinton's speeches on immigration or Obama's speeches
00:39:57
on immigration, they sound like Trump like this is a very modern
00:40:01
change in the Liberal Democratic Party.
00:40:03
Their views on immigration. I I think people could accept
00:40:07
certainly freezing the border. Yeah, I think the interior work,
00:40:11
I mean, you were, you were a lawyer.
00:40:12
Yeah. So you understand that there are
00:40:14
lots of laws that people aren't following, speeding, whatever.
00:40:20
And then they're also there are people with green cards that we
00:40:22
have the right to revoke, but then there's no reason to like
00:40:26
scare the shit out of them when they were allowed to be here,
00:40:29
they had a green card or they had some other to be.
00:40:32
Here as long as sure, but. Like they didn't break any sort
00:40:35
of agreement with you. Well, we do have different rules
00:40:38
on green cards. Like Rubio talks about this a
00:40:40
lot. If you're guest, you don't have
00:40:43
the same rights as the person who owns the home.
00:40:46
And I think we stopped enforcing that.
00:40:49
And Rubio and the State Department is enforcing that.
00:40:52
So if you're on a green card, your ability to criticize the
00:40:55
United States is different than an American citizen, and I think
00:40:58
that's very reasonable. It it creates a terrible free
00:41:01
speech culture. In the United States, not
00:41:03
necessarily. The woman, by the way, I think
00:41:05
you had sort of pushed back on the idea that the woman who is
00:41:09
push out of the United States over op-ed, that it was just the
00:41:11
op-ed and then evidence did come out that it was just the op-ed.
00:41:14
Do you concede that one? No, actually.
00:41:16
There was an update on. That send me the update on that,
00:41:18
send me the evidence and I'll look at it.
00:41:20
But I do think Mark was right. We have scarce number of green
00:41:24
cards and we should choose. It's perfectly proper to choose
00:41:28
people who support the United States to allocate the green
00:41:30
cards too. I don't think you can do that
00:41:32
for American citizens. You shouldn't.
00:41:34
The government shouldn't choose, but the government does have
00:41:36
discretionary rights for people who are visitors, just like at
00:41:39
your dinner guest. But we're we're creating.
00:41:41
You don't have a right to a green card.
00:41:43
You have to sort of have fidelity to the, the Republican
00:41:45
Trump administration right now. It's it's do you align with
00:41:48
their views? They're they want to be able to
00:41:50
scrub the social media of people.
00:41:52
Coming in the United States, you're cheering out.
00:41:54
That is insane. It's not insane.
00:41:56
It's not. It's insane in the context of an
00:41:58
administration that very much cares about fidelity to a
00:42:01
specific. That's your interpretation.
00:42:03
You don't think that's all your business friends are doing?
00:42:06
Tim Cook is literally bringing him like golden gifts.
00:42:09
OK, you cannot pretend the kissing up to Trump.
00:42:13
Like Biden. Like.
00:42:15
Biden that had like a small random counter.
00:42:18
You don't with the CCP, are you? You.
00:42:20
Deny if it like business leaders today obviously see and we're
00:42:24
starting to see this break because we literally just.
00:42:26
Saw, I don't think it's going to break, but like keep going, keep
00:42:28
going. Business leaders feel like they
00:42:30
need to cozy up to a Trump in a way that is unprecedent in
00:42:33
modern American history. I think business leaders in TAC
00:42:36
feel the need to cozy up to Trump, but let me explain why.
00:42:39
They all spent infinite amount of money in 2016 and 20
00:42:44
depending on which year and sometimes both funding
00:42:48
Democratic opposition. And I don't think a successful
00:42:51
CEO should be that binary with their money.
00:42:55
Like across the organization. Google 98% of all contribution
00:42:58
wins to Democrats. That is not acceptable and so
00:43:04
they do need to do some correction to that.
00:43:06
Facebook Mark spent 600 K personally trying to elect Joe
00:43:10
Biden. You can't do that without
00:43:13
creating enemies. So I think some of it is a
00:43:15
recalibration. Some.
00:43:17
I think, well, show me how many tech executives or how many
00:43:21
companies, how many tech companies can you find that had
00:43:23
70% or more greater Republican contributions?
00:43:26
Some of these were just employees.
00:43:27
It's like employees are allowed to be left wing.
00:43:29
Well, you are allowed to be left wing, but I think if you're
00:43:32
going. To you are.
00:43:33
If you are, you are. I guess this is.
00:43:35
Well, you got to be careful then, like I don't think like.
00:43:39
The government is going to come after you.
00:43:41
Well, you don't. That's not that is not the three
00:43:43
enterprise. You can't be an ideological
00:43:46
supporter as a company. And like, so for example, like
00:43:50
there's lots of companies in New York, Fortune 500, would
00:43:53
Citibank ever give 90% of its money just to one side?
00:43:57
No, you're talking with Pepsi oil.
00:44:00
Donations. Yes, but it's through a pack, so
00:44:03
it's organized. Well, it depends.
00:44:05
Depends, but. The ones you were saying.
00:44:07
About tech companies are about. Employee donations 100.
00:44:09
Percent depends on what data set you're looking at, but the
00:44:12
company does have usually organizes a pack at least for
00:44:15
their leadership and so it's not totally like just random atoms.
00:44:19
I agree the random atoms is is slightly different than when the
00:44:22
company orchestrates it, but if the company orchestrates then
00:44:25
you have to be a little bit more judicious.
00:44:27
We agree they're dancing for Trump.
00:44:29
So you think they have to make up for past?
00:44:31
Some do, some definitely have to make up for sins like if you try
00:44:35
like you could people. Are literally getting pardoned
00:44:38
for criminal acts based on just showing up at Mar a Lago.
00:44:41
Do you disagree with that? Well, I don't think that's
00:44:44
actually true. You don't think I have a major
00:44:46
pardon issue going on in the United States right now?
00:44:49
Well, I do think I do think we have.
00:44:50
Corrupt. Here's a bipartisan comment.
00:44:53
I think we need to reform the pardon system.
00:44:55
Like you saw what Biden did. I think everybody found that
00:44:58
outrageous. Pardoning himself when clearly
00:45:00
Trump was gonna go for retribution.
00:45:02
Who indicted Trump on all these? Completely fake charges every.
00:45:06
Single one of them has been thrown out, every single one.
00:45:08
And they're all, they're all like as a lawyer and as a
00:45:10
litigator. They've been thrown out because
00:45:12
the new Justice Department came in and threw them out.
00:45:14
No judges ultimately threw them out like so.
00:45:17
The New York State one, the Justice Department had nothing
00:45:18
to do. The New York State Court of
00:45:19
Appeals, which is all liberals, 100% liberal.
00:45:21
Threw it out because he is now the president and he was gonna
00:45:24
make it so. They made this shit up like, so
00:45:26
let's talk about New York. Happen to know this?
00:45:28
Well, they changed the statue of limitations, then they took a
00:45:33
paper offense, which is typically a misdemeanor and said
00:45:36
we're going to now change the law.
00:45:38
So if you have this paper records offense and we're
00:45:41
changing the statute of limitations so we can go back to
00:45:43
this paper he might have filed, right, We're going to now.
00:45:45
Change it into fun. But this is New York is yes or.
00:45:48
Georgia. Same thing in Georgia.
00:45:50
The key one is the independent prosecutor, the special
00:45:53
appointee. Well, I think that those were
00:45:55
legitimate. The confidential classified
00:45:58
documents handling was and he was definitely obstructing like
00:46:01
those things were happening. Oh, you mean like like Joe
00:46:04
Biden? Both as vice.
00:46:05
President, but he proactively returned them.
00:46:07
It was once there was a there are legal standard, there are
00:46:10
different. Things like Hillary Clinton,
00:46:12
like Hillary had all these documents.
00:46:14
Servers. What about?
00:46:15
What about? But like what I'm saying with
00:46:17
that is like, look, if politicians do, if politicians
00:46:20
of both parties do something, it's unfair to harass and
00:46:23
prosecute the last. What is your take on the $500
00:46:27
million going to Trump's crypto That's.
00:46:30
Stupid. Like he shouldn't have done
00:46:31
that. It's just, it's huge.
00:46:32
I know it's stupid. Like because my point I always.
00:46:35
See, I'm neutral like I think. I don't think they should do
00:46:38
that. Like I just don't.
00:46:39
Drop, but it is a scale of corruption never seen in
00:46:42
American history. Well, I think you should.
00:46:43
You're. Ruining some.
00:46:45
History a little bit, but like Harding, I'm sure had like if
00:46:48
you were just for. Inflation and you know maybe
00:46:50
Johnson getting elected I. Don't even know this corruption.
00:46:53
I just don't think the optics are a good idea.
00:46:54
Like I think they're going to be president focused on achieving
00:46:57
things. Why bother with the distraction?
00:46:59
Like that's my opinion. Like it's like it's wounding
00:47:02
capitalism, like it's creating a world where but the fraud wins.
00:47:05
Let me give. Let me give you the pushback.
00:47:07
If you were like a MAGA conservative and you wanted to
00:47:09
push back, you say of all the modern presidents, the only one
00:47:12
who became less wealthy by being in office is Donald Trump.
00:47:15
Every other president became more wealthy after being
00:47:18
president. So you know, it's actually true.
00:47:21
So you. Get wealthy while he's
00:47:23
president. No, but like the point is he's
00:47:25
actually gone down a net worth because he served every other
00:47:29
president. Obama went from like 200 K to
00:47:31
200 million like this. Very common I.
00:47:33
Don't know if this is still true.
00:47:34
This 500 million is a lot of wealth for.
00:47:36
Him well, does it go to all The Who does it go to?
00:47:39
I don't know like. It's it's a lot.
00:47:42
Anyway, I don't think personally, I don't think they
00:47:44
should have done it. Are you?
00:47:45
I don't think whoever made the decision.
00:47:46
I don't think it's a distraction from achieving.
00:47:49
Things. Are you still a China hawk?
00:47:51
Yes. And the Trump administration is
00:47:53
giving China our most valuable AI.
00:47:56
Well, there's debate with any administration as you can.
00:47:58
See. Is that that's happening, right?
00:47:59
Well, no, it's not approved. It's not approved like they
00:48:03
don't. Have to sign it, what's your
00:48:04
prediction? I don't think they're going to
00:48:07
get the chips. Oh, really?
00:48:09
Well, I personally hope they don't get the chips.
00:48:11
Is this wish casting or knowledge?
00:48:13
No, I think there's like it has been delayed.
00:48:16
So there's a number of people who have to sign off on this
00:48:19
stuff. There's like a review process
00:48:21
and you're right correctly stating that the Trump
00:48:25
administration gave the first level blessing, but there's
00:48:28
several other departments have to sign off on that and that
00:48:31
hasn't happened to the TO. The number one thing if you were
00:48:33
China hockey, you would not. I agree with.
00:48:36
I agree with you. It is the most China dovish
00:48:38
thing you could do. I I agree with you.
00:48:41
You know, David Sachs, he's very smart and very knowledgeable,
00:48:43
has a completely different perspective.
00:48:45
You should debate it with David. No, David and I are.
00:48:48
I mean, I'm happy. David, come on the podcast.
00:48:50
He should, I mean, he should, he can articulate his view.
00:48:52
I understand his view. I don't agree with his view.
00:48:56
And that's fine. Like we can both be
00:48:57
conservatives and debate it, right?
00:48:58
But he has a very strong perspective that has logic to
00:49:02
it. He's super sharp.
00:49:04
Jensen and David's view views are very strong.
00:49:06
I happen to have a different view and I'm willing to
00:49:08
critique. It I mean, I think we should
00:49:10
have, you know, a clueless policy, but I think we should
00:49:13
extract from China. Your Facebook should be
00:49:15
available right there. I think we need to.
00:49:18
I personally am a China hawk. I believe that we need to lock
00:49:22
down dual use technology for lots of reasons with with
00:49:26
respect to China and the CCP. But I understand friends of mine
00:49:31
and friends of mine in the administration have slightly
00:49:34
more nuanced or different perspectives on this and you
00:49:37
know, that's what they're empowered to do.
00:49:39
But I have my my personal views are similar to yours.
00:49:42
The a lot of this I mean the corruption I think is terrible
00:49:46
and you know chips you know, foreign policy people can
00:49:49
disagree. It's it's very debatable.
00:49:52
I think saying no innocent person was involved with Alex
00:49:55
Pretty. I thought that was pretty dark.
00:49:59
Well, you can, but it's obvious he was an agitator.
00:50:02
Agitator free protests Assembly. Was not a protest that you're
00:50:06
just lying to your readers. Readers.
00:50:09
Let's talk about it. Yeah, yeah.
00:50:11
That was not a protest. That was an organized
00:50:13
obstruction of an ice operation. There was no protesters, so if
00:50:16
you want a new show. They're, they're observers.
00:50:18
We, I, I, I wrote a newcomer that we, we just slipped through
00:50:22
this era where people like Elon were calling for independent
00:50:26
media, independent if you want citizen journalists.
00:50:29
And here he is. He's recording what's happening.
00:50:32
And then and then. With his phone.
00:50:34
No, in the first video he's not recording.
00:50:36
He's fucking kicking. OK, that OK.
00:50:38
So you MIT he's like 2 weeks before he was out shader now
00:50:41
he's in now. You're just like, oh, he's a
00:50:42
record. You don't get shot for that.
00:50:44
Like this is America. You do, you do.
00:50:46
Get shut. So do you.
00:50:48
What city do you what? What city?
00:50:49
What city do you live in? This city.
00:50:50
OK, you live in New York City. Go downstairs walking up to any
00:50:54
New York Police officer, literally anyone you can sample
00:50:56
however you want. Go to five, it's actually better
00:50:58
than 1/3 to five and ask them what they would have done
00:51:01
differently. And you're going to be shocked.
00:51:03
They actually acted. They, they don't like the
00:51:06
result. Like, just to be clear, let's be
00:51:07
totally clear, the result was very unfortunate, the process if
00:51:12
you ask any police officer in an urban city what they trained and
00:51:15
what they would have done in the exact circumstance.
00:51:17
People, people in US are always going to have a very more than
00:51:20
giving attitude towards people having to make.
00:51:23
But I've watched this. Happen.
00:51:24
This happened in Miami. So I was in Miami the week after
00:51:27
and I watched my neighbors talking to her.
00:51:28
People love the police in New York.
00:51:30
In Miami, we have a really great police force and figure out what
00:51:33
I'm sorry, but anyway, so watch my neighbors.
00:51:34
Actually talking, this whole argument could still be made and
00:51:37
he could still be innocent. Well, innocent.
00:51:39
He's a felon, innocent from a perspective of should you be
00:51:43
shot? I I'm not debating that with
00:51:44
you, but some you. Don't think he should have been
00:51:47
shot. No, but I do know that.
00:51:49
And do you think he gave them 'cause to be shot?
00:51:51
Yes, yes. By carrying a weapon.
00:51:54
No, definitely not. But you cannot.
00:51:56
The first thing you learned like I do, You grew up in a city,
00:51:58
too. I grew up in Macon, GA, which
00:52:00
actually has a high crime rate, yeah.
00:52:01
OK, great. One of the first things you
00:52:03
learn is you do not get in a violent altercation with police
00:52:06
under any circumstance like this.
00:52:08
You talk one of the reason why minorities have not supported,
00:52:11
you know, the protests in Minnesota is they all know that
00:52:15
they tell their kids at 7 years old, the police pull you over,
00:52:19
do not get in a fight. Like that's the first thing you
00:52:21
learn as a kid in an urban environment.
00:52:24
He clearly resisted arrest. Now, being armed when you're
00:52:28
resisting arrest is he'd. Been he'd been in the vicinity
00:52:31
of pepper spray and pepper. Spray.
00:52:33
Yeah, but he was still fighting. And there were six of them.
00:52:36
They've taken his gun and they shot him in the back.
00:52:39
No, they shot him in the front. No, they shot him in the back.
00:52:42
But the the officer, the only legal question, only legal
00:52:46
question is really simple and we'll eventually get to the
00:52:48
bottom of this is we'll eventually become out in public.
00:52:50
Dwayne is did the officers who fired the shots, the two that
00:52:53
fired the shots apparently did they know the gun was taken away
00:52:57
or not, that is. Certainly going to say.
00:52:58
They don't know. Well, no, but like you'll be
00:53:00
able to tell like I don't. Know you need to be threatened
00:53:02
they were not being. Threatened to be threatened,
00:53:04
police officer, but that's false.
00:53:05
That is not the correct argument.
00:53:07
That is not legally true. You do not you do not like the
00:53:11
Supreme Court ruled 9 nothing like literally this is not the
00:53:14
the standard. But if they knew he didn't have
00:53:16
a weapon, that would this whole court.
00:53:18
Ruled that you need to bring in like the totality of the
00:53:21
circumstances that have happened and nothing they and that is not
00:53:24
what happened there was not he wasn't threatening them he was
00:53:28
recording and then he helped pick up a woman from the.
00:53:31
Street anybody who. Violently, what did he do?
00:53:34
What did he do? Violently, he was violently
00:53:36
resisting arrest. You cannot do that.
00:53:39
You cannot do that. Period.
00:53:40
He was. He was.
00:53:42
Absolutely. There were six on one.
00:53:43
Like are you? Still resisting, he was still.
00:53:45
Intentionally like tells people, can you drive this race?
00:53:48
This was border. Control.
00:53:50
I know that's true, That that is true.
00:53:52
You can stuff up. It has just become an American
00:53:55
convention that the people doing border control are ice.
00:53:58
OK, Ice by ice because we like, you know, if that is the
00:54:01
territory where you can find some wind, if that's the ground,
00:54:04
you can find some wind to defend yourself.
00:54:06
That is such a small piece. Of this straightforward if the
00:54:10
officer. If the officers the Border
00:54:12
Patrol authorized by Trump shot American in the back doing the
00:54:16
most patriotic thing he could, which is observing the
00:54:19
totalitarian use of authority, he.
00:54:21
Was in the middle of a he's a patriot.
00:54:23
No, he's not a patriot. Yes, nobody believes this.
00:54:25
And when? We yes, I sincerely believe.
00:54:27
It looks so fucking stupid when we release his signal chats like
00:54:30
this was an. Orchestra.
00:54:31
The idea that yes, of course they're following ice.
00:54:34
They're not. Following ICE, he was in the
00:54:35
middle of the street interfering with operation.
00:54:38
That is a felony. It's actually punished by 8 to 9
00:54:40
years that that offense before resisting arrest, which has a 20
00:54:43
year. Interfering by picking someone.
00:54:44
Up No, If you're in the middle of the street, you cannot he.
00:54:47
Was on the sidewalk when they. Let's do a thought experiment.
00:54:50
If if right downstairs, we go down the studio and the police,
00:54:54
the New York Police Department is trying to arrest somebody and
00:54:57
either one of us white, you know, all American, whatever
00:55:00
goes in the middle of the street while the police, New York
00:55:02
Police Department is trying to arrest somebody.
00:55:05
Will those officers grab us violently?
00:55:07
Absolutely, 100%. Sure, but they shouldn't shoot
00:55:09
him. Well, they they should not shoot
00:55:11
him. Next thing that happens.
00:55:12
Let's follow this through like the fire experiment's worth
00:55:14
doing. They shouldn't shoot us.
00:55:16
Depending the what we how we react when they throw us down
00:55:20
violently, they might not intentionally, but they might
00:55:24
like if one of us were to grab like if one of us were to.
00:55:27
Grab you think I already I I don't have this positive view of
00:55:30
the police is like the right bar for authority.
00:55:33
So I do OK. So Even so, I think this exceeds
00:55:36
what the police would do. There was a there was a great
00:55:38
video that is like if ice came to New York, at least it's like,
00:55:42
I feel like the NYPD would stand up for us because they they're
00:55:44
like, we're the ones that are supposed to shoot New Yorkers.
00:55:46
Not not not ice. Oh my God.
00:55:48
You have such a detour started. View of really you should be
00:55:51
that's high authoritarian you're in tell I like why are you I
00:55:55
feel like why I don't understand why do you like authority I.
00:55:58
Like law and order? You're supposed to be a
00:56:00
disruptor. I am a disruptor, but you don't
00:56:02
get to violate the law. If you do.
00:56:03
The law is Trump today. Then you, the people, are
00:56:07
learning the wrong lesson. So my parents, let's talk about
00:56:08
my parents in the 60s and 70s when they didn't like the law.
00:56:11
What did the Vietnam people do? Protest.
00:56:14
They protested, wrote songs, but created music.
00:56:16
And they were willing to get arrested.
00:56:18
Martin Luther King, Sure. Civil rights, you know, I'm
00:56:21
going to get arrested. I'm not going to resist arrest.
00:56:23
So if you the way to show a law is unfair or wrong or whatever
00:56:28
your perspective is, is more like the 1960s and 70s, I would
00:56:31
support that. But like, fighting against
00:56:33
police is a very bad idea. I I just think it is very hard
00:56:37
to comply with six officers at once, putting pressure on your
00:56:40
body. That's how you comply.
00:56:41
Like literally tell me you don't know a four year old.
00:56:43
Kid that. I just think you're getting
00:56:45
like. You know any?
00:56:45
Frayed, they're attacking you. Your body is barely in control,
00:56:49
Police officer confronts. You, if you're in a car, you put
00:56:52
your hands on a steering wheel and the hands visible on the
00:56:54
steering wheel. You learn that first take a
00:56:56
driver Ed like literally sophomore year high school.
00:56:59
Then if you're not, if the police confronts you and it
00:57:02
looks like they're agitated. What do you do?
00:57:04
You you agree that they're in Minnesota because Minnesota is
00:57:07
politically hostile to. No, I think, well, it depends.
00:57:11
High definition here. Politically hostile, meaning
00:57:13
they're not actively turning over criminals to ICE?
00:57:16
I'd agree with that. Is true, they wanted them out of
00:57:19
like prison. Yeah, they want.
00:57:21
Them and they're also making claims that they're not in
00:57:23
prison when they law. Yeah, I don't totally understand
00:57:25
that. But like, fundamentally, I do
00:57:27
agree with you that the the extra officers in Minnesota are
00:57:33
because Minnesota decided for whatever sort of reasons to not
00:57:36
take the criminals in the prison and just hand them over, which
00:57:39
is the historical precedent even under Obama.
00:57:41
Like this came out recently that Obama used to have actually an
00:57:45
ICE agent in every prison, like literally sitting in the prison
00:57:49
waiting for them. So like, again, people are being
00:57:52
somewhat hypocritical here. Like, so here's another example.
00:57:55
OK, so you don't like the shooting of an American, right?
00:57:59
So where were you in the Obama administration?
00:58:01
You know, ICE under Obama shot 59 citizens or 59 people. 23
00:58:07
died. Right.
00:58:09
So that's like 10X the amount have died under the Trump
00:58:13
administration. Where were you complaining?
00:58:17
Where were your friends? I mean, nobody was obviously
00:58:19
incidents become symbolic. Yeah, sure.
00:58:22
So, you know, I agree. I totally own that this is a
00:58:24
representative of a bunch of themes have in the United States
00:58:27
and some of these things we focus on and some we don't.
00:58:30
Hypocrisy. But I am not.
00:58:31
It's OK if Obama does like. It's great if Obama does it, but
00:58:34
if Trump? Does say I support abolish you?
00:58:36
Nice. So you're like it's, I'm happy
00:58:38
to. So John.
00:58:39
So John Lott is. It is a it's an institution that
00:58:42
has John Lott's of credibility. Chicago professor does stats
00:58:45
about crime mostly. He published the stats about the
00:58:48
error rate of Trump's ICE. Like how many times have they
00:58:50
made a mistake of any type? And then the error rate under
00:58:53
Obama? Using the same stats, Trump's
00:58:56
ICE is 5X less error prone. I I saw a stat that what like
00:59:00
the immigration officials in Minnesota committed more crimes
00:59:03
than like the immigrants in the same period of.
00:59:05
Time. I doubt that.
00:59:06
The. I doubt that.
00:59:08
I mean, like, look, so you should look.
00:59:09
And one of the things the administration's getting better
00:59:11
at is these people they're deporting are really bad.
00:59:16
Like these are like child. No, they they literally.
00:59:20
Have these. Criminal.
00:59:22
The criminal in the middle of the street in the cold.
00:59:24
They're abducting 5 year old children.
00:59:27
They're not abducting 5 year old children.
00:59:28
I mean like that. Someone should sue you for that.
00:59:30
Why so? Because you know what happened?
00:59:33
Do you actually know? What happened?
00:59:34
What? Happened, yes.
00:59:35
So they were arresting correctly or deporting correctly a father
00:59:40
who was illegal and a criminal like a bad criminal.
00:59:43
He had a 5 year old in the house.
00:59:45
They asked the mom did she would she take care of him and he she
00:59:49
said no. So what are they going to do?
00:59:51
You have to get rid of the criminal.
00:59:53
And the mom says I don't want my 5 year old.
00:59:55
So you know what they did? They put they picked up the five
00:59:57
year old and put him in the library.
00:59:59
Like this is literally what kind of speech?
01:00:01
Culture, are you encouraging they have a 5 year old like they
01:00:06
have a 5 year old? Because the mom said I won't
01:00:08
take care of them, the mom literally said.
01:00:10
Creating the circumstances of these immediate seizures.
01:00:13
You know what happened in New York City?
01:00:15
Imagine if we go downstairs again and I'm a mom with a 5
01:00:18
year old and I run away and say I don't want my 5 year old.
01:00:20
You really want to get arrested? Don't.
01:00:22
You think just this sort of like hair trigger people should be
01:00:25
sued over speech is a deterrent to free speech in the United
01:00:28
States? 100.
01:00:29
You said it just now that, by the way.
01:00:31
Where were you in the Biden administration when they lost
01:00:33
139 kids? They literally lost 139
01:00:37
kids. Where were you?
01:00:38
You were about 1-5 year old. There's 139 people that
01:00:41
somehow were kids were running around.
01:00:43
I think it's insane to be upset that we're mad about the optical
01:00:48
situation when Trump is doing everything he can to highlight
01:00:51
that he's taking an aggressive stance in interior states.
01:00:55
Like he is creating the the he's painting a picture but that's
01:00:59
false to be responded. To let's look at Texas.
01:01:01
So there's 10X or more deportations from Texas than
01:01:05
Minnesota. 0 incidents. You know why?
01:01:10
Because the Texas. No, they're not running around
01:01:12
trying to make a scene in Texas. I would love that.
01:01:14
I'd love them to show the same attitude that they're doing in
01:01:17
Minnesota where they have people terrorizing.
01:01:19
But you can be in Texas and let the people of Texas you can.
01:01:22
Preditate from my point about an idea.
01:01:24
So obviously I would feel terrible for the actual.
01:01:26
Immigrant protest on the sidewalks.
01:01:28
You cannot interfere. He was on the sidewalk.
01:01:30
Without he was in the middle of the street obstructing traffic.
01:01:33
Suggested on Twitter that Vinod Khosla wasn't your boss.
01:01:36
He's your boss. Not really, he would say.
01:01:39
He's not. He is hard and firing power.
01:01:41
He's the I don't. Think so.
01:01:44
I don't think I haven't read our LP agreement in a while, but I
01:01:47
don't. I find it hard to believe the
01:01:48
guy on the your You guys are peers or yeah.
01:01:52
I mean he's he's like default, but actually practice.
01:01:55
Samir actually runs day-to-day at KV.
01:01:58
I I appreciate you going back and forth The I I need to ask
01:02:01
about open door because there's a set of few I don't cover the
01:02:03
public markets, but obviously, yeah, I feel like there's some
01:02:06
people watching this show. It's like, oh, you have open
01:02:07
door, you haven't asked about it.
01:02:09
I can't go anywhere without talking.
01:02:10
Yeah, exactly. What's the turn around plan,
01:02:12
man? They want these shares going up.
01:02:14
Is it still a meme stock? What's Yeah, well, it.
01:02:16
Was never a meme stock. What it was is there were retail
01:02:21
investors. Normal people could see the
01:02:23
vision and the upside potential of the company better than
01:02:27
professional investors, which I think is a great thing.
01:02:29
By the way, I'm a big fan of retail investors even before I
01:02:32
got involved re involved in Opendoor.
01:02:34
I think like the whole purpose of a stock market.
01:02:36
Let's take a step back. Why do we have a stock market
01:02:39
It's so that we can efficiently allocate resources.
01:02:41
That's what you learn and you know, E com one or whatever
01:02:45
consumers voting with their feet saying I want more dollars to go
01:02:48
to Palantir. Well, I want more dollars to go
01:02:51
to pick your favorite company. Open door is a great thing
01:02:56
because consumers should get a voice in where do resources get
01:03:00
allocated. So I think it's great when
01:03:01
retail vote when retail participate.
01:03:04
So I think the company had been broken and couldn't communicate
01:03:08
it's vision purpose at all. And fortunately some set of
01:03:12
retail people figured it out that like, here's the high level
01:03:15
argument. Residential real estate has not
01:03:18
been affected by technology period.
01:03:20
It's still homes are still basically bought and sold the
01:03:23
same way they have forever. It's the largest asset class in
01:03:26
the asset class in the world. What's the chance of the next 20
01:03:30
years that that's true? Pretty low.
01:03:32
What's the single best company with the best opportunity to
01:03:36
improve through technology the process of buying a home?
01:03:39
It's open door. That's the investment
01:03:41
hypothesis. Now, delivering on that is very
01:03:44
difficult. It requires lots of
01:03:45
orchestrated, talented people working together and innovating.
01:03:49
The fact that the company wasn't able to communicate that and
01:03:52
convey that is intellectually bankrupt.
01:03:55
The fact that some retail investors figured it out is
01:03:57
great. That's what propelled the stock
01:03:59
to increase because like AI don't like my real estate
01:04:01
agents. I don't like the real estate
01:04:02
process. I want this fixed.
01:04:03
I'm going to give my money effectively to support a company
01:04:06
that wants to do this. And then cash takes over with an
01:04:09
explicit vision of making the process of buying and selling
01:04:11
homes easier and encouraging home buying like homes, like
01:04:15
home ownership. The company's mission is to
01:04:17
encourage more people to be homeowners because when you're a
01:04:20
homeowner, you're a better citizen.
01:04:22
Like there's lots of evidence in every possible way, way.
01:04:24
And so we want to encourage home ownership and we're in the
01:04:26
process. Of what's going to cause like an
01:04:27
inflection point, like I feel like a lot of this is still sort
01:04:30
of the big the company has been so.
01:04:32
We have this cool thing that actually, as far as I know, no
01:04:34
other public company has done. So every Tuesday night we update
01:04:37
our metrics on like how many homes we bought.
01:04:40
We, it's called the accountability index or
01:04:41
something. You can just watch it every
01:04:43
Tuesday night at 6:00 PM. And you know, since he's taken
01:04:46
over in October, we've massively increased our growth.
01:04:51
Re secondarily, this will play out, you know, more as we do
01:04:54
earnings on the profits, but we're doing better than we ever
01:04:58
have. We're better at pricing.
01:05:00
Our pricing engine was broken. It wasn't using any modern AI
01:05:03
techniques. Like basically the company had
01:05:05
been in like maintenance mode from a technology perspective
01:05:08
for like 3 to five years. And he's already in like 4
01:05:11
months or so fixed huge fraction of that.
01:05:14
And then you'll see us doing some creative things as well
01:05:19
that are a little bit beyond the core of just buying and selling
01:05:22
homes. Adjacent people call it, you
01:05:24
know, technology, adjacent products and services.
01:05:26
And we're basically following the Carvada playbook truthfully,
01:05:29
which is intentional. Carvada is 100.
01:05:31
Well, they're probably down a bit, but they're recently $100
01:05:34
billion company allowing you to get an instant offer for your
01:05:38
auto, more competitive market and smaller market Tam than open
01:05:42
door actually. So we want to follow their
01:05:44
playbook. I've always been a fan of the
01:05:45
Carvada model since 2016. I've been like, we're on the
01:05:47
Carvada, can't we just follow the ground on the model?
01:05:50
Like we should communicate this to investors both.
01:05:52
Well, anyway, so that's what we're doing.
01:05:55
I think it'll be successful. But obviously, you know, we have
01:05:57
a whole new executive team, like literally a whole new executive
01:06:00
team. So CAS started four months ago.
01:06:02
We have new CFO, new president, new COO.
01:06:06
So it's not going to all the metrics aren't going to change
01:06:10
like immediately, but they're all moving in the right way.
01:06:14
What is this patch by the way? It's a brand.
01:06:16
It's. You, just like your producer
01:06:18
said, don't wear a brand. You said don't wear any branded
01:06:21
clothes like for the podcast I'm like.
01:06:25
I didn't know if it was like, yeah, it was, no.
01:06:26
It's like a golden goose or whatever the sneaker brand.
01:06:30
Is the I mean, if the, and we're about to wrap up, but like if
01:06:34
the Democrats win the midterms, is that a repudiation of Trump
01:06:38
or is. It well, historically the out
01:06:41
the out of power party has won midterms.
01:06:44
So the historical precedent would be that.
01:06:46
I do think it depends on the magnitude like there's I don't
01:06:51
think that's going to happen. By the way, I think the
01:06:52
Republicans will absolutely control the Senate.
01:06:55
The House is more volatile in many ways, partially with all
01:06:58
redistricting left to right and don't even know, no one know
01:07:00
even knows who's voting for who. But I think the House will be
01:07:03
more volatile. But as far as I can tell, the
01:07:05
economy is improving a lot and people are starting to notice
01:07:07
like I saw the right track, wrong track metric.
01:07:09
Is your family better off? All those are moving a lot in
01:07:12
the last you're. Predicting Republicans win the
01:07:15
Senate? What?
01:07:15
About the Senate and maybe even gain seats.
01:07:17
The House is probably a 5050 deal, but I think the first
01:07:21
derivative because I think people do care about their
01:07:23
pocketbook, like their conventional wisdom and
01:07:25
politics. I, I think Trump will be
01:07:27
successful. Also one of the magics.
01:07:31
There's several pieces of magic between to talk about Trump.
01:07:33
Like there's lots of things to criticize.
01:07:34
I'll grant you like, trust me and think there are a lot of
01:07:37
things in the public domain and you can criticize it, but people
01:07:40
haven't focused enough on the magic of Trump.
01:07:42
He is excellent at motivating people who don't vote often to
01:07:46
vote. And when he's not on the ballot,
01:07:48
which is typically the case in the midterm, the Republican
01:07:52
Party suffers because they're voting for him.
01:07:54
They're not voting for Republicans.
01:07:57
I think he now there's so much evidence of this.
01:07:59
He understands that and he understands if he wants to
01:08:01
accomplish his goals for the last two.
01:08:04
Years. He needs a loom large.
01:08:05
He needs he needs Republicans like otherwise there's stuff you
01:08:08
can do in foreign policy and everything, but fundamentally to
01:08:11
move the needle. And I think he ran for president
01:08:13
to move the needle since he got. So he moves immigration
01:08:16
officials out of Maine to make it a little friendlier.
01:08:19
Clearly not a winner. He, he, he will do well.
01:08:22
But I think, I think it really does matter.
01:08:25
The economy continues to grow, but.
01:08:26
You're predicting close call. I think we're going to.
01:08:29
I think the Republicans, we will win the House.
01:08:31
But it's not. It's.
01:08:32
Not obvious, I think the standard I'm very confident in,
01:08:35
but anyway I think it would. Be and and we're going to
01:08:37
continue to have free and fair elections in the United States.
01:08:40
Oh yeah, well, we're trying to pass voter ID like.
01:08:43
Don't you think passports would be good for Democrats?
01:08:45
Like more Democrats have passports, Yeah.
01:08:49
I'm fine with passports, give me a library card, I'm probably
01:08:52
fine with that. Like I just think it's insane
01:08:54
you can't go to a pharmacy literally downstairs and buy
01:08:56
Sudafed without without an ID. But you think Trump will run for
01:08:59
a third term? No, I don't.
01:09:01
I don't think so. I for lots of reasons.
01:09:07
I, I, I think he enjoys like occasionally.
01:09:11
You know how I should say this? Annoying people like he likes
01:09:15
tweeting people like teasing people.
01:09:17
It's hard to know when he's joking.
01:09:18
I think the literally serious thing.
01:09:20
I think that. Hasn't been true.
01:09:22
No, but I think you get a feel for when.
01:09:24
He did some of the tariffs. People thought he was joking.
01:09:27
No, well, I never thought joke about tariffs.
01:09:28
I believe in tariffs. Note actually believes in
01:09:31
tariffs is one of the things we're very aligned on.
01:09:34
But I knew he really strongly believed in it and wanted the
01:09:37
key was to get a Treasury Secretary and commerce secretary
01:09:40
who believed in tariffs because a lot of Wall Street people like
01:09:43
are blind about the benefits of tariffs.
01:09:45
And so he got a team that believes in tariffs and that's
01:09:48
why they were able to execute. And that's why we're seeing the
01:09:50
dividends. The reindustrialization is very
01:09:52
real, the investment in America, but more importantly, the trade
01:09:55
deficit has changed radically in nine months.
01:09:58
Nobody, almost nobody, including his most positive supporters,
01:10:01
thought he could change it that quick and that fast.
01:10:03
So tariffs are great. I think you're gonna see, you
01:10:06
know. We go all day.
01:10:07
I mean, he's driving Canada into China's arms as.
01:10:10
We well Canada doesn't have a choice.
01:10:11
Like they can fake this. He already cancelled.
01:10:13
I think Carney already cancelled that deal and he announced it.
01:10:16
There are different pieces of it that are.
01:10:18
Coming on, I mean like, look. Anyway, we clearly see the
01:10:21
political world very differently.
01:10:22
I appreciate you coming on. That is fair.
01:10:24
Well, let's check in after the midterm campaign.
01:10:26
It'll. Be great.
01:10:28
Well, he's down in China. We both are bullish on, I don't
01:10:30
know capitalism in tech, but the rest of it and we'll.
01:10:34
Go. You don't.
01:10:36
Like fraud, but you're willing to tolerate the candidate who's
01:10:40
pardoning a bunch of people? I don't know.
01:10:42
I think all we can follow. Together.
01:10:44
By definition, all pardons in history are the people who are
01:10:46
convicted, and so Trump does not have the most partings.
01:10:49
All right. All right, Keith, thanks so much
01:10:50
for coming on the newcomer. Pleasure.
01:10:53
Thanks so much for listening to the Newcomer Podcast.
01:10:55
I'm Eric Newcomer. Follow us on Substack at
01:10:58
newcomer.co. Hope you enjoyed the episode.
01:11:01
See you next week.
