Neil Young and Joni Mitchell are pulling their music from Spotify over the company’s more than $100 million exclusive deal with popular podcaster Joe Rogan. The UFC commentator likes to host vaccine skeptics and has voiced his own apprehensions about the necessity of the vaccine for young people.
Meanwhile, Substack — the home to this newsletter — apparently generates more than $2.5 million a year from anti-vax newsletters. The company recently published a blog post titled, “Society has a trust problem. More censorship will only make it worse.” It reads:
We will continue to take a strong stance in defense of free speech because we believe the alternatives are so much worse. We believe that when you use censorship to silence certain voices or push them to another place, you don’t make the misinformation problem disappear but you do make the mistrust problem worse.
Tom Dotan, Katie Benner, and I discuss the two latest controversies in Covid content moderation. We also talk about the market downturn and the broader risks for the economy. I argue that I’m more worried about the effects of Tesla’s stock falling than a crypto winter.
Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
00:00:05
Welcome. Hey, it's Eric newcomer, I'm
00:00:15
here with dead cat. We've got both Tom and Katie.
00:00:18
We're doing a host only episode. We're gonna start off in disgust
00:00:23
dead cat classic. Yes.
00:00:25
Sort of the real where we really get to fight it out with nobody
00:00:28
interfering and stopping us from just endless endless stream of
00:00:32
take theirs, but oh no, journalism happening.
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This is a journalist so we're going to talk about what we'll
00:00:39
get to the market, which I'm excited to talk about in the
00:00:42
second half. But we're going to start off
00:00:44
talking about spotify's decision to keep Joe Rogan on the program
00:00:50
and let Neil Young pull his music and then sort of sub
00:00:56
stack, obviously, close to home for me where I published
00:01:00
newcomer has been in the news since the Washington Post and
00:01:04
the guardian both. Said that you know subjects
00:01:07
making like 2.5 million or some broiling small amount of money
00:01:11
in the scheme of business off, anti-vaxxer sort of
00:01:15
misinformation and so sub stack has been drawn into the Free
00:01:20
Speech fight and you know, sub stack wrote this post.
00:01:24
Basically just anyway, we'll talk about that in a second.
00:01:28
Tom Katie, any initial take on. I mean, the core issue.
00:01:32
I mean, should Joe Rogan be on Spotify, or do you?
00:01:35
Do you have a strong point of view on on the core issue to
00:01:40
start off with? I'd like to stick to the Neil
00:01:42
Young part of it. Well, yeah, I agree.
00:01:45
That's the interesting part like yeah.
00:01:48
Are they losing Crosby? Stills, Nash and Young too
00:01:50
because that's a bigger hit to me, personally, I mean, I like
00:01:54
both catalogs but you know, csny has personal residence to maim,
00:01:58
I grew up listening to my mom was obsessed.
00:02:00
Listen to the deja vu record constant, make sense this all
00:02:03
tracks Tom. Now we do.
00:02:05
My I'm like, yeah. No.
00:02:07
I would heavily heavily inundated by csny and then I saw
00:02:11
Peter. Frampton is also pulling down in
00:02:14
his catalog to, so we're losing the Boomers, but yeah.
00:02:19
Seventies are coming back to attack and Frampton live.
00:02:22
That is too bad weather. It's Frampton over there, still
00:02:23
young. I think the interesting part is
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that issues around freedom of expression and when I wouldn't
00:02:30
even call it free speech. Because if you look at the First
00:02:31
Amendment, the way it's written is about whether the government
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to prohibit the speech. Of citizens, but I mean freedom
00:02:37
of expression, right? And misinformation these issues
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that we would normally look to authorities to resolve or being
00:02:45
resolved in the free market essentially by various actors
00:02:50
deciding, whether or not they want to participate in a
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platform rather than any kind of Regulation.
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And I think that's what's fascinating to me.
00:02:57
Also, that it's a Swedish company.
00:02:59
You know, like, we're all viewing this through the lens
00:03:01
of. I mean, obviously the first
00:03:03
amendment is misapplied here but The, my understanding and
00:03:06
talking to some folks and I'm not really reporting this.
00:03:08
Just these are casual conversations people in and
00:03:11
around Spotify, is that they actually very strongly believe
00:03:14
in people's, you know, freedom of expression and that is more
00:03:19
important than I would have thought out of a Swedish
00:03:21
company. You would think, you know,
00:03:22
stayed over each. They would love to regulate
00:03:24
these kinds of things, but they're not that bothered from
00:03:27
like, a corporate level. I think by the idea that there
00:03:29
is like, bullshit being traffic to their platforms, I mean, it
00:03:33
is an issue with Rogan Specifically, because he's not
00:03:36
it's not just a platform, right? It's not just Apple podcasts and
00:03:40
distributing it through there. They pay his they'd be you know,
00:03:42
they'd rise checks that you know, he's on there for, he's
00:03:46
their star podcaster that you know your subscription money
00:03:49
goes directly to him. So there is a connection, I'm
00:03:52
not saying that I agree or you know, that's not my stance but
00:03:55
like it isn't purely a platform argument in the same way that I
00:03:58
think a lot of people want to apply it to Facebook or even
00:04:03
apple as like a podcast platform.
00:04:05
I think the Free Speech part of this is sort of a misdirect
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right in sub Sachs policy which will come back to.
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They were like we will continue to take a strong stance in
00:04:16
defense of free speech because we believe the alternatives are
00:04:20
so much worse and to me that's just like an empty statement
00:04:23
everybody is going to say in the western world that they believe
00:04:27
in free speech to some degree what what they're missing is
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really like the case law, right? The sort of, okay, you can't
00:04:34
say, You know, there's fire in a burning building or whatever.
00:04:37
And all of these companies admit that there's some line, most of
00:04:42
them would not host storm front, right?
00:04:45
So the United States as a country believes in free speech,
00:04:48
and we've had sort of a long evolving sort of legal history
00:04:52
to Define what that exactly means and what all the burdens
00:04:55
are. So for these tech companies to
00:04:57
come out and just say, we believe in free speech, often
00:05:00
feels like they've missed just like they're they're behind on
00:05:04
the debate. It's like oh, Find your own free
00:05:06
speech. That that's really not here, or
00:05:08
there. It's how you define all the
00:05:10
narrow points and then it's what is your policy on being anti
00:05:16
vax? Or, you know, is that a red line
00:05:19
or not and what are the lines and how do you do decide what
00:05:22
speech isn't part of this sort of productive debate?
00:05:26
So I just think the statement that your for free speech is
00:05:30
just sort of pompous because it's when you're when you're
00:05:33
also saying quiet, Or quietly we're for free speech.
00:05:37
Except for in the moments were not and we could write our but
00:05:41
we're not going to really talk about it right on sub stack.
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A lot of people are dunking on them because they don't allow
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pornography. And so it's, you know, you
00:05:49
clearly don't allow free speech in the way of marriage.
00:05:52
You know, America allows pornography and there, it's for
00:05:55
free speech. You clearly have lines about
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what you allow and it, you know, on one level of looking at it
00:06:01
seems crazy that you're okay, you're not you're okay with
00:06:05
People leading people to their deaths by arguing that they
00:06:10
shouldn't take the vaccine. I don't really understand.
00:06:11
Thank part of us because there are these really strict Federal
00:06:14
prohibitions on things, like child pornography, for which a
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company can genuinely get into trouble, right?
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And that is something that would be a disaster for a platform.
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Whereas the federal government hasn't really told us where the
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lines are around. In your words leading people to
00:06:30
their deaths by spreading this information.
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So you can see from right if you were the general counsel you
00:06:34
would say Definitely, no pornography and you know maybe
00:06:37
when the government says that, they'll get there, we'll get in
00:06:40
trouble with this misinformation.
00:06:42
Then we will ban it, right? That's why the free speech thing
00:06:44
is also so frustrating because they're clearly often acting out
00:06:47
of their own economic interests, and have these perogative 's in
00:06:52
terms of what the laws are and what they might get Super Saiyan
00:06:54
4, but they make it seem like it's some principled stance
00:06:57
totally detach from all these economic decisions.
00:07:00
So you're giving this sort of high-faluting, I mean these
00:07:03
companies are basically run by Jerry from Succession.
00:07:07
But what are they going to? I mean, yeah, the honest answer
00:07:09
is like we pay Joe Rogan's. You know, we signed Joe Rogan's
00:07:12
paychecks and he is a huge moneymaker for us.
00:07:15
Therefore, the financial loss that we would take by kicking
00:07:18
Rogan off. The platform is far worse than
00:07:20
losing Neil Young's catalog like 1970s onwards, right?
00:07:23
So it gets different gets more interesting.
00:07:26
If a contemporary artist leaves it gets more interesting if
00:07:29
Beyonce or Taylor Swift is like I'm out.
00:07:33
This is ridiculous. Yeah, no.
00:07:35
Hugely. So, I just want to say on the
00:07:37
core issue, I think Joe Rogan should be allowed to be on
00:07:43
Spotify, they should pay him. I wouldn't pull my music from
00:07:47
Spotify. We're hosted on, WE publish on
00:07:50
Spotify, by the way, so if you wanted to take a stance you can
00:07:54
put we're on Spotify as a platform.
00:07:56
We get no money from right out of fry whereas you know all of
00:07:59
these artists are getting residuals for.
00:08:01
I guess if I was doing executive we're again Spotify I would have
00:08:04
said oh Rogue. And should be are like billboard
00:08:07
artist. So we're going to pay a ton of
00:08:08
money to come on. They knew what they were getting
00:08:10
into. I mean in so much as they even
00:08:13
pulled some of his older episodes because they're like,
00:08:16
all right Joe, let's give you a clean slate.
00:08:18
You're on Spotify now. Let's see what you give us and
00:08:20
you know probably 85 to 90 percent of the time, they're
00:08:23
completely fine. You know.
00:08:25
It's like when he interviews carrot-top, that's not going to
00:08:27
piss anybody off. I mean I haven't really well.
00:08:29
I don't know about that. Well, yeah, actually watch part
00:08:31
of that interview. Crimes against humor, he's a
00:08:34
dumb guy who talks about MMA like and sort of admits that,
00:08:39
right? I mean, regular guy, he's
00:08:40
already most popular podcast or by a long shot and there's a
00:08:43
reason for it. I just think it's much more
00:08:45
pernicious. If some guys like, I'm a doctor,
00:08:48
here's what you should believe about the vaccine while the tech
00:08:51
platform is providing no rebuttal or like effort to to
00:08:55
say, well, the scientific consensus doesn't agree.
00:08:57
But for Joe Rogan, where it's like, this is some random guy
00:09:02
who has it. Minions and sort of has a
00:09:04
popular show. Are people really that misled
00:09:07
that they're hearing from some dumb guy who interviews people.
00:09:10
I'm sure they have a line with him.
00:09:12
Why is Joe Rogan the most popular podcast or Tom because
00:09:15
he speaks in a you know kind of a approachable affable Cadence
00:09:19
he kind of sees always thinking out loud and just sort of
00:09:23
whatever bubbles up there. He seems like open to it and
00:09:25
then very lightly debates it to himself.
00:09:28
And then moves on also, you know, he's an MMA guy and
00:09:31
there's like no filter. I mean It's all right.
00:09:33
Yeah, I have watched a number of his interviews.
00:09:36
I think they're very watchable and right and entertaining.
00:09:40
And yeah, yeah. I mean it's in the same way that
00:09:43
people in Los Angeles have been kind of like ambiently absorbing
00:09:47
Ryan Seacrest for like 20 years even though they don't really
00:09:50
know why and they don't really have strong feelings about him,
00:09:53
he's just sort of there and I think Rogen's the same thing.
00:09:56
It's he's not a hard-hitting interview, but I don't know if
00:09:59
it's also incredibly long. Each episode is like three or
00:10:02
four hours. H which is like you know
00:10:04
definitely they're probably you know spot at spotify's getting
00:10:07
their money's worth in terms of like minutes from from Rogan.
00:10:10
But it's a huge show and I think it's even grown as he's joined
00:10:15
Spotify. Like this is worked for them.
00:10:16
This isn't like buying something at its peak and then slowly
00:10:18
declining. Like they got, they got a hot
00:10:21
and podcasts, there was actually a good story that Lucas shot at
00:10:25
Bloomberg. Did a couple weeks ago saying
00:10:27
like podcasting as a medium is really hard up on trying to get
00:10:33
Hit shows, there aren't that many things that kind of Bubble
00:10:36
Up and become incredibly, you know, watched or listened to
00:10:40
shows. And so the fact that they have
00:10:42
like a true genuine star, they're like there.
00:10:44
It's going to be hard for them to block away from that given
00:10:47
how much of their, you know, their strategy is about
00:10:50
podcasting right now and there is something annoying about
00:10:53
liberals and the left that they want to try and make spotify's
00:10:57
entire brand about Joe Rogan, when he's one of many people
00:11:00
that they pay money for. And Like appeals to a certain
00:11:03
audience and their, I don't know, it can be a little
00:11:06
Annoying. Obviously there's something very
00:11:09
free-market about people, pulling their content and
00:11:12
protesting and you can capitalism to get that what they
00:11:15
want. And so I'm sympathetic to that.
00:11:19
But then there's also just sort of like a sensory as sort of
00:11:23
attitude where it's like just whining about everything that
00:11:26
people like is that said, there's clearly a lion for
00:11:29
Spotify. I mean if he were to go out
00:11:31
there and say things Better unambiguously racist.
00:11:34
They would pull him, right? I do you think I got spotify's
00:11:37
line? I guess.
00:11:39
Racist is sort of, you know, things get a little muddy there,
00:11:42
but if you were to, I mean, I guess there are and First
00:11:44
Amendment violations or not violations.
00:11:46
But if he were to Advocate violence, well yeah, anything
00:11:50
anything that he could be, that would bring about a criminal
00:11:53
charge, I think is a Ryan. Most companies would tell me
00:11:56
anything. We saw with your mom, you know,
00:11:58
where he was attacked on the China stuff, anything where
00:12:00
Republicans and Democrats have To say he's terrible.
00:12:03
That's, that's the thing you're going to get God.
00:12:07
I don't know if you bring those constituencies together.
00:12:11
Like, I think it's great. That Republicans and Democrats
00:12:13
can agree. That genocide has bad eyes and
00:12:17
she tripped over that line. I'm trying to imagine a scenario
00:12:19
in which Joe Rogan started talking about the uyghurs.
00:12:23
He would just be very off-brand for him.
00:12:26
But you know if you were out there to say like you know,
00:12:28
caring about the uyghurs genocide is below my line, he'd
00:12:32
probably get a Talking to. I don't think, I don't think
00:12:34
your mom canceled. Yeah, I don't know.
00:12:37
Yeah, that's not looking. No, I think it would be like,
00:12:39
weighing in on something like the depth charge Floyd Wright in
00:12:43
a way that people thought yes, like wildly her.
00:12:46
If exactly. Yeah.
00:12:47
Right. That's, that's a good one.
00:12:48
Yes. If at the height of the George
00:12:49
Floyd protest, he was like, you know, guy got it coming or
00:12:52
anything, even close to that. Then I think you would be in a
00:12:54
position or Spotify would be in a position where they were,
00:12:57
like, that's something we don't want to be, you know, assigning
00:13:01
her name to at all which again. I mean, that's not really free
00:13:03
speech. So there's obviously a
00:13:05
squishiness to their statement that they're even trying to
00:13:08
stand behind even if it's irrelevant and we saw this
00:13:11
issue, come up with Twitter when Trump was still on Twitter.
00:13:15
You know, they had all sorts of reasons why they said it was
00:13:17
totally fine to have them on. And then it wasn't until after
00:13:20
you know many, many, many people violently attacked Congress that
00:13:25
they were like, okay, well actually actually think maybe
00:13:27
not anymore. I mean, so I mean at the high
00:13:29
levels, I doubt, Neil Young as making all that much from spot.
00:13:32
If I these rights, but I'm trying to think like, yeah,
00:13:34
Katie you brought it, Beyonce Taylor Swift.
00:13:38
I think, Taylor for a time has pulled her music from Spotify.
00:13:41
Right. I wish you had a whole huge
00:13:42
thing but now she's like all in there's been a right now.
00:13:45
That benefits you a lot Eric? Yeah I'm a top one percent I
00:13:51
think yeah I'm making my way through read.
00:13:55
It's taken me months but you know as I like this in a little
00:13:58
bit and be like I have to remember the song and then I Get
00:14:02
caught. We're the the tellers version.
00:14:06
It was version, Taylor's Rich. Oh yeah, I know, at least which
00:14:10
version to listen to. Yeah, I'm trying to think who
00:14:12
would take for me if they got pulled, it would be more, just
00:14:15
like individual songs, you know? Like if I couldn't listen to, I
00:14:20
don't know. C&C Music, Factory everybody
00:14:22
dance now, right? If all of the Consortium of your
00:14:25
favorite artists took only, they're like top two hits off.
00:14:28
Yeah, it has to be like deep cuts only.
00:14:30
I couldn't do it. It oh well soon, see Music
00:14:33
Factory deep Cuts. I don't think they had any.
00:14:35
Yeah, I would I can't think of a second song by them but yes, I
00:14:39
don't, I don't even think there is somebody who have paid all
00:14:42
their music. I'm actually an apple music
00:14:44
person stupidly, so I'm not even really relevant to this
00:14:47
discussion. When I need to dust off my CDs,
00:14:49
which I'm looking at my kajillion CD.
00:14:54
I actually this this isn't. There's no segue here.
00:14:57
It's just something actually wanted to bring it to you
00:14:59
specifically. Katie.
00:15:00
There is a Spotify. I have been obsessed with over
00:15:02
the last week, it's called the 60 songs that explain the 90s,
00:15:07
and it's this music critic who works for the ringer who goes
00:15:10
song by song and explains why each song like it was emblematic
00:15:14
of the ninth. When was the last song he chose
00:15:17
I'm behind. I just found out about this
00:15:19
thing like sugar but what was the last episode you listen to
00:15:24
what was the song? I listen to A Tribe Called
00:15:27
Quest. Absolutely 100%. 100% that was
00:15:29
like yeah suddenly Hip-hop is okay for everyone, right?
00:15:34
We can all like it and it's good and it's happy.
00:15:37
It was so happy, it was like, it was right.
00:15:40
But it's also stupid and kind of profane.
00:15:43
Best episodes have been for rap, took a turn.
00:15:46
Anyway. All right.
00:15:48
Funs over? Yeah, sorry I think this is
00:15:52
essential listening, but yeah, sure.
00:15:54
They want to make a point on I know I've talked about.
00:16:00
So I mean I'm Sub-sect. So I care and I just thought
00:16:04
that the statement they put out was a little was just sort of
00:16:08
naive to the whole debate around.
00:16:11
Moderation on social media platforms that's been happening.
00:16:16
They like they didn't like to me, the key distinction is what
00:16:19
you allow on your platform versus what you're Distributing.
00:16:22
Right? What your so what drives your
00:16:23
business, right? What that, that matters but I'm
00:16:27
saying in terms of ethically, ethically, like there's a It's
00:16:31
between hosting something and pumping, something out to a
00:16:34
bunch of people. And right now, sub stack just
00:16:37
relies on their Publishers, people like me to build an
00:16:40
audience. And so, if they host bad stuff,
00:16:43
it doesn't bother me that much, right?
00:16:45
Because it's like those people had that audience, they probably
00:16:48
have it on some other on a WordPress site, it doesn't
00:16:51
matter that much. That it's unsub stack, but if
00:16:54
sub stack ever succeeds it building distribution, actually
00:16:57
building audience, then the position will matter and right.
00:17:01
They they just failed. Basically.
00:17:04
It building distribution, right? They launched a reader app.
00:17:07
If you're a writer on subsequent, they show you
00:17:10
metrics. The try to emphasize the extent
00:17:12
to which they're helping to build your audience, but they're
00:17:15
not, everybody knows a not really building audience right
00:17:17
now. So there's sort of a okay?
00:17:19
Because we fail to building audience, no one's really going
00:17:21
to complain that we're hosting people.
00:17:23
I mean, people are complaining, but it's not as a sort of
00:17:26
punishing critique. But obviously if it becomes the
00:17:29
case that they're driving a huge, Audience to anti-vaxxers
00:17:33
in are responsible for those that that was the critique of
00:17:36
Facebook. That Facebook is finally started
00:17:38
to recognize then it becomes more of an issue.
00:17:40
And so I just feel like that they put out such an
00:17:43
unsophisticated statement was really annoying because it's
00:17:48
like this has been, well, discussed.
00:17:50
There are lots of like experts on it and to just be like, oh
00:17:53
no, we love Free Speech, just makes him seem sort of dumb.
00:17:56
I mean, I like the people over there, but I'm like, come on.
00:17:59
It's like if your whole point. The were a nuanced platform that
00:18:03
hosts sophisticated debate, your own statement about it should
00:18:07
like indicate a level of sophistication.
00:18:10
I agree. But I think Jerry from
00:18:12
succession. Probably had a lot of hand in
00:18:14
that that it's just pure cynical right?
00:18:16
That it's that it's like, okay. People like I mean, that's all
00:18:20
we, that's I guess what I'm trying to say, people who are
00:18:22
not following this closely like how Free Speech sounds.
00:18:25
So if you make your point Free Speech, a certain segment of
00:18:29
people will be like great but like that's Not a really
00:18:32
sophisticated position. And so either, this is extremely
00:18:36
cynical in that they don't want actually weigh in to the sort of
00:18:40
thorny actual smart discussion. And of course, they don't want
00:18:45
to this, that sucks. They don't want to be involved
00:18:48
in, I mean, old into a debate in this paragraph would make your
00:18:51
blood boil. They're like, in a pernicious
00:18:53
cycle, these Dynamics in turn. Give each group license to
00:18:56
point. They're just sort of.
00:18:57
He's saying how those thoughts today.
00:18:59
Yeah, they're both sides. Here, it's the It's like, I'm
00:19:03
just like, good bad. What's the difference?
00:19:06
You know, it's just like classic like, oh my God.
00:19:08
Just like total both sides doing.
00:19:12
It's just like the dumbest sort of shits.
00:19:14
Why don't you just have a mandatory?
00:19:15
Why don't they just have mandatory vaccinations for sub
00:19:17
stack? That would be so funny like,
00:19:21
yeah, this is ended there. Just like we have 100%
00:19:24
vaccination everyone that rights results so just be a good troll,
00:19:28
you know, it just like totally out of nowhere.
00:19:31
We're gonna go right in the oven on, you know, mandatory Evac
00:19:34
Splat forms. Be my guest.
00:19:35
You know do stuff. I oh maybe they're vax.
00:19:38
Maybe they're not. You know she drivers beware I
00:19:42
don't want to get involved in this at all.
00:19:43
This sucks for them isn't how experienced an unsub stack.
00:19:46
Yes. Yes I'll be, I mean, he's
00:19:48
terrible. Yeah.
00:19:50
He's certainly the extreme of that.
00:19:51
I'm sure they'd rather him not be on there but you know it's
00:19:55
just not like you said the numbers are very large audience.
00:19:59
I mean, people people say that he makes like Dollars a year, I
00:20:02
think I saw. I'm not that he's he's kicked
00:20:04
off Twitter, right? I think so.
00:20:06
I think his stick, that's what I haven't really kept up with
00:20:08
who's been banned from drought in the New York Times, alumni
00:20:11
group. I mean, this is kitchen that
00:20:13
what I'm This that's slack. Yeah this fits into I mean the
00:20:20
fact that Twitter is basically doing distribution for sub
00:20:24
stack, make sub Stacks editorial challenge much easier because
00:20:28
the people driving audience to sub-sect are these social media
00:20:32
companies which have had to think about this for a while and
00:20:34
have stricter rules, whereas sub stack, which is just a like
00:20:38
basically a hosting platform and sort of a sort of tool for
00:20:42
writers can sort. Of play naive for the time being
00:20:46
but obviously, if they ever succeed in building the business
00:20:48
they aspire to then they're going to have to grow up and
00:20:51
have a more sophisticated point of view.
00:20:54
What would your ideal statement be from them, though?
00:20:57
Other than, like, not as not as simple, my ideal statement would
00:21:00
be, you know, inherently, we have to draw lines and we think
00:21:06
we should have a pretty permissive attitude towards
00:21:09
hosting people. Personally, we find anti-vaccine
00:21:14
At abhorrent. And we understand that as we
00:21:17
grow, we're going to try and direct people to sub Stacks that
00:21:20
we think are interesting on a whole range of subjective
00:21:24
factors like their ability to build audience in our own
00:21:27
sensibility and brand. And we certainly don't want to
00:21:30
drive audience to things that we think are morally reprehensible
00:21:33
like anti-vaccine statement. So while we're happy to let a
00:21:36
range of debate, we believe in free debate, we don't intend to
00:21:41
drive audience, right to the These people Beyond Today to
00:21:45
thinking attract platform, that drives audience less.
00:21:48
So is one that is an economic vehicle for just like draw a
00:21:51
strong distinction between the different types of that,
00:21:54
understand that people are have different opinions about when
00:21:58
you're driving attention versus when you're just hosting and
00:22:02
make your position clear on both fronts.
00:22:05
I mean, I was surprised that Casey noon on platformer sort of
00:22:10
applauded sub stack for having a very Here position, which is
00:22:15
like, we like free speech. I thought their position was
00:22:21
simplistic. I also just don't think Clarity
00:22:23
is the number one value. I think not promoting and
00:22:27
distribute not drawing new attention to anti-vaxxer
00:22:31
terrible speech. The outcomes matter more than
00:22:35
sort of the tightness and Clarity of the the position I
00:22:38
got to say, the only thing that's drawn my attention to the
00:22:41
anti-vaccine people on sub, stack have been people learning
00:22:44
about the anti-vaccine total unsub's.
00:22:45
I mean that I've never would have even known that.
00:22:48
Alex Barron sand has a sub stack or the, you know, the fact that
00:22:51
there are two point five million dollars worth of value, being
00:22:53
created from from these writers. So yeah, I don't know D
00:22:56
platform, those people, they drove my attention.
00:23:00
I mean, the other boy people made about sub stack is just,
00:23:03
you know, it's sort of so people's opinions grow by being
00:23:06
indirect like confrontation with each other, but subsets not
00:23:10
doing anything to like surface rebuttals to these anti.
00:23:14
X sub Stacks to those people. It's not like, oh, you're
00:23:16
getting anti-vaxxer sub stack. Here's like the other side of it
00:23:20
and why you should listen to that name though.
00:23:23
I mean, like that, that was like the suggestion for Facebook for
00:23:25
a while to be like, you may be interested in another side of
00:23:28
the statement. It's like, come on the people
00:23:31
that are DieHard anti-vaxxers or any of the misinformation on
00:23:34
Facebook. They're not going to be swayed
00:23:36
because there was a little like suggestion box saying like you
00:23:39
might want to read Vox for another perspective.
00:23:42
I really think that's what You want there at the bottom?
00:23:45
Alex Berenson, someone who just got through, you know, hearing
00:23:47
that like mRNA is gene therapy and, you know, you're going to
00:23:51
die of cancer in the next six to eight weeks being like, you
00:23:54
know, Eric Topol from the Scripps Institute, has a
00:23:57
different view on this. There are core product failures
00:24:01
at the heart of a lot of this, right?
00:24:02
Like some crazy guy comes up to you on the street and like
00:24:06
starts ranting about ants, you've acts and you like, see
00:24:10
they're sort of hiss, they're troubled.
00:24:12
They look they're a lot of Things off the internet that you
00:24:15
can receive about someone to understand them and assess them
00:24:18
that the internet obscures, in that these platforms, help
00:24:22
people hide. And by not like, if you're
00:24:26
experiencing that, no one sort of take seriously in the
00:24:29
mainstream sort of medical authorities or anything.
00:24:33
The failure of social media platforms, to let people really
00:24:37
understand this person and have any sort of history on them and
00:24:40
just get this sort of snapshot window into them.
00:24:43
I do think it's their design choices about how social media
00:24:47
platforms are built and sort of the sort of total abandonment of
00:24:52
any sort of credentialism or yeah, I guess I mean like at the
00:24:57
earliest days of the fake news debate.
00:25:00
Remember the issue wasn't so much that there was an accurate
00:25:03
information but that it was being presented as coming from
00:25:05
an authoritative Source, right? Member like the pope endorse
00:25:09
Trump was written on some site. That was like the the Colorado
00:25:13
registry. Or something like that and and
00:25:15
you know the argument there which is what I'm more buys like
00:25:19
oh there could be well-meaning people that for some reason
00:25:21
think that you total asset on this site is is legitimate here.
00:25:25
And if that's the only news they read that day, then they could
00:25:28
think that. You just, you know what you're
00:25:30
getting with sub stack. If you're if you're signing up
00:25:32
to read, sometimes I agree with that statement so yeah, I don't
00:25:36
know, I don't know. Do you want to join them over to
00:25:38
the markets? You agree that this sort of
00:25:41
distribution versus hosting? Yeah.
00:25:43
Does think I should get? Yeah, I think it's a slightly
00:25:46
different debate. I think when it becomes to
00:25:47
distribution substract has more responsibility than simply
00:25:52
being, you know, an economic platform or, or, you know, like
00:25:55
basically a payment platform and web hosting service.
00:25:58
Well, stripe is a payment, a facilitator of using Straight.
00:26:01
You know, there? So that's interesting though,
00:26:03
right? I mean, like, that gets to like
00:26:04
the real, like the, you know, the backbone of the internet
00:26:07
when people like that start making distinctions and I know
00:26:09
Christ and that would be, that would be pretty bad, right?
00:26:12
I do think it's like a Scale, you want the infrastructure
00:26:16
layer to be the least restrictive in the distribution
00:26:19
layer to be the most that makes sense that's like TV shows in
00:26:22
the past. You know you choose your brand,
00:26:24
you play TV, you decide what's on the show?
00:26:26
That makes sense to me. Right?
00:26:28
Look, I'm on the more firm side of just not believing that any
00:26:32
of these people should be pulled down under under almost any
00:26:35
really? That's yeah, yeah.
00:26:37
I might just like this people pretend it's so hard to say
00:26:41
what's bad and what's good? It's like you read this fucking
00:26:43
terrible thing. You talk to a bunch of X.
00:26:45
I understand that there was an Impulse to like sensor the lab
00:26:50
leak Theory which I believe I was very suspicious of the
00:26:53
origins of the coronavirus. I was listening to Steve
00:26:57
bannon's podcast but I was able to seek it out and find it on
00:27:00
whatever like platform it was on because you're still allowed to
00:27:04
have like, meta conversations about like, oh, there are people
00:27:07
who believe that, you know what I mean?
00:27:08
It's so that. So the interesting thing is that
00:27:11
for broadcasters TV, L, there are certain kinds of things,
00:27:15
they just can't put out to the public because they don't hit a
00:27:19
standard. So platforms are relatively new
00:27:24
in the history of like news distribution information,
00:27:26
distribution, do you think that there should be a standard
00:27:30
imposed on platforms? Akin to a broadcast standard.
00:27:33
And if not why, why not? Just because it's user-generated
00:27:37
for things like, trending topics distribution, right?
00:27:41
For things were like, if you're on the Book profile very low
00:27:45
standard. But if it's being pumped into
00:27:47
the feed and being, you know, given virality, then I think
00:27:50
there should be a more similar to a broadcast standard.
00:27:54
And the other thing is, if you look at Australia, they did just
00:27:56
post laws about distribution of certain kinds of harmful
00:28:00
information. And it means that Publishers in,
00:28:03
not just the platforms, but Publishers in Australia.
00:28:07
So if you're a newspaper and you have a comment section and, you
00:28:11
know, inappropriate under this law, On 10 is post in the
00:28:15
comment section. Well, the newspaper could have a
00:28:17
legal issue. And so I think that there are
00:28:20
going to be countries that take a firmer hand in terms of, you
00:28:24
know, the distribution of content that they think that's
00:28:27
harmful to society. So I mean it's hard for me to
00:28:30
imagine that Australia goes there but the EU doesn't go
00:28:33
there. And then eventually, I mean
00:28:36
other countries will have to consider it and they'll be a big
00:28:38
dividing line between the countries that do in countries
00:28:41
that don't seem like they're. I want free debate.
00:28:43
On the internet. Like I don't want to be in a
00:28:45
case where you can't even make an argument and publish it
00:28:49
somewhere. It's just, I want people who are
00:28:51
just like, so I want, you know, if you're really seeking
00:28:53
something out, you're arguing something, there are more ways
00:28:56
to share, you know, you can text people things, you can have
00:28:59
group there, more ways to share your ideas, now across the world
00:29:02
than ever before. I just don't think you have the
00:29:04
right, just because an idea is like catchy and people reading
00:29:08
it sort of believe it, without any other information to get it
00:29:12
distributed, widely beyond your In audience.
00:29:15
I guess it's not really about a matter of right or not.
00:29:17
Right? I mean obviously we're not even
00:29:19
talking constitutionally, right? It's just like human law or
00:29:24
civilized, you know, right society that people should say
00:29:28
things that you disagree with and have harmful effects because
00:29:32
they are, you know, getting wide distribution for it.
00:29:35
I, I guess it's just hard for me to get past the like, what is
00:29:37
the n stand? What did people ultimately want?
00:29:39
Because what they're mad about is that there's a lot of
00:29:41
anti-vaxxers, right? That there's a lot of people.
00:29:43
Out there have the decided one will reason or another, they
00:29:46
don't want to get this vaccine and that is prolonged.
00:29:49
The suffering. That we have all been
00:29:51
experiencing for the last couple of years.
00:29:53
I don't think it's going to make a huge difference.
00:29:55
If sub stack, kicked off the anti-vaxxers of Joe Rogan was D.
00:29:57
Platformed in terms of the number of people.
00:30:00
I think in the countries where they do have stricter laws about
00:30:05
distribution, there are still huge swaths of people that are
00:30:07
protesting locked down there. Anti-vaxxers that are all these
00:30:10
things. What I'm about to say, should be
00:30:12
the refrain of every Conversation like this Fox is
00:30:16
still worse, that's a problem, right?
00:30:17
As long as Fox is pumping out with an editorial agenda stuff.
00:30:22
That's as bad or worse than anything.
00:30:24
You're going to find that were complaining about on the
00:30:26
Internet. It's sort of a dumb argument
00:30:28
because you have this super terrible broadcaster.
00:30:32
That's just, you know, intentionally delivering the
00:30:37
message to, you know, the Republican Party base and Sprite
00:30:41
and they're theoretically regulated by, you know, The
00:30:43
broadcast standards and it's still getting out there, right?
00:30:46
Same way, and I'm not calling for the government, really, to,
00:30:48
like, crack down more. I'm just saying, in sort of the
00:30:51
elite discourse, sort of what what we should ask for in sort
00:30:56
of these policy positions. And how well-intentioned people
00:30:59
should think about sort of correctly moderating?
00:31:02
Yeah, yeah, the market you want to go to the market?
00:31:06
Let's go to the market what the song is called unfun.
00:31:13
Mi glad ya Bitcoin unhappy is it down right now?
00:31:18
I mean it's down overall but I don't know today whether it's
00:31:21
our who cares? It's going to come out a couple
00:31:23
days from now. I mean Robin Hood is what it's
00:31:26
ten. Ten point five billion market
00:31:29
cap right now II keep taking a Victory lap because rivi and
00:31:32
that electric car company. I called a Horseman of the
00:31:35
Apocalypse is way below its IPO price.
00:31:38
It's now only worth a self-driven horse thief billion
00:31:40
dollars as like no Revenue basically, it's worth He billion
00:31:44
dollars. So to me, plenty of air, I mean
00:31:48
test a respek, right? No.
00:31:50
I think it was a traditional IPO Tesla is still an eight hundred
00:31:53
billion dollars. I'm pulling it up, eight hundred
00:31:55
thirty, five billion dollar company and what Ford is
00:31:59
probably what a tenth of that. What is it?
00:32:03
Yeah, for it is is 77 billion dollar company.
00:32:06
So I do think there is a plenty of room to come out, but we saw
00:32:10
lots of great companies like snowflake.
00:32:13
You know, a lot of sad Zoom is way down.
00:32:16
I think, you know, companies that just had high Revenue
00:32:20
multiples, you know, corrected to sort of like pre-pandemic
00:32:25
levels, right? Netflix is down below.
00:32:28
Its pre-pandemic level. Then they were one of the
00:32:30
winners and the first year or two.
00:32:32
So, yeah, it feels like we've kind of reset everything back to
00:32:35
2020. I mean, I, we need a bear
00:32:37
Market. I mean, they're, I mean, they're
00:32:39
clearly companies that are ridiculous, right?
00:32:42
And because there's, A set of companies.
00:32:44
I think a lot of the EV company. I mean, I'm glad electric
00:32:47
vehicles exist, but the multiples that they're trading
00:32:49
at the absurdity of some, I mean, I would say on-demand sort
00:32:53
of the go Puffs, the world. They have the ability of like,
00:32:56
absurd businesses to do. So, well has meant that even the
00:33:00
sort of the normal software businesses then, got insane
00:33:03
multiples. And so now we've seen
00:33:06
everything. Correct, but we have, we're not
00:33:08
seeing like the truly ludicrous business.
00:33:11
We haven't seen like bankruptcy attorney.
00:33:13
Thing I don't and I'll say that, I just want to the SNP, it's
00:33:18
still up more than 15 percent from a year ago, right?
00:33:21
So even though it's come down a lot, like, overall, the market
00:33:25
is up you on this year, just over the last 28 days.
00:33:29
It's down a lot. It's down like nine percent.
00:33:32
But if you look at the chart for a year it's not like we're in.
00:33:37
It's not like we are in huge trouble.
00:33:39
I say that. Like we're going to go to a bear
00:33:41
Market. Yeah well yeah, I mean.
00:33:43
It's really do you think we recovered?
00:33:45
You think this is just a teaser and we're going to have real
00:33:49
real paint so I don't two things.
00:33:51
I don't make predictions that you like as reporters we're just
00:33:54
reporters are generally about it predictions and we're pretty
00:33:57
much all those wrongs. I don't like to do that.
00:33:59
And the other thing is they think that the market and the
00:34:02
real economy are two different things.
00:34:05
And so I'm I feel like the markets kind of an indicator of
00:34:09
what like kind of a subset of the country.
00:34:13
Is doing, you know, it's like, they're all sorts of forces that
00:34:18
have kind of made that sharp decoupling happen, right?
00:34:21
So, like high-speed trading, Etc, you know, all sorts of
00:34:25
things but I think that if you look at the economy, that is
00:34:29
something that people might want to pay more attention to if
00:34:32
they're trying to figure out whether or not we're going to go
00:34:34
into a recession and I'm going to hitters like unemployment
00:34:37
number of people leaving the workforce like consumer, you
00:34:41
know, consumer activity and that is I think Start is what
00:34:44
starting to get wobbly in a way that I find possibly more
00:34:47
interesting, but that's just what the other employment rate
00:34:50
is low. I watched Jerome, Powell the Fed
00:34:54
chair. Give his sort of talk on what
00:34:57
they plan to do. It's super funny to listen to
00:35:00
not, you know, not being sort of a Fed reporter.
00:35:05
You know, they speak in their own sort of little Arcane
00:35:08
language and they don't want to give anything away but I mean,
00:35:11
basically it was very clear that He called like the stock market
00:35:14
like a market, you know what I mean?
00:35:16
It was very clear that they're not orienting around the stock
00:35:19
market, that fundamentally the mandates are unemployment and
00:35:23
inflation. And they only really care about
00:35:25
the stock market to the degree to, which it would derail, you
00:35:29
know, cause people, you know, the stock market plunging could
00:35:32
cause people to lose their jobs and I think that's right.
00:35:35
It would have been funnier if he was just like, fuck the stock
00:35:37
market, but but yeah, there is a degree.
00:35:39
Like you're saying that the stock market is not the economy.
00:35:43
And it's healthy for, I mean, you talk to most investors Savvy
00:35:48
ones and they think we needed a correction that the valuations
00:35:52
even in great companies, where a little were unsustainable, but
00:35:57
where it goes from here. Yeah, I think we're all set on
00:35:59
time when interest rates are so low that any investment, no
00:36:03
matter how risky seems totally fine, especially if you're using
00:36:06
borrowed money to do it, it's just everything.
00:36:08
Kind of felt free and easy, and if inflation Rises and interest
00:36:13
rates, rise, Won't be the case anymore.
00:36:14
So I think that again like I'm not a predictor but I am less
00:36:19
concerned about what's happening in the stock market.
00:36:22
And I'm more interested in kind of what happens with interest
00:36:25
rates. And then there's all this, like,
00:36:27
weird stuff happening with Supply chains that it's sort of,
00:36:30
it's sort of interesting, but people not being able to get
00:36:33
stuff people, nothing to move things around the world.
00:36:35
I have no idea how that will affect the economy, but it is
00:36:39
fairly new. I mean, for decades, we ran on
00:36:41
this weird just-in-time Manufacturing.
00:36:43
Fracturing economy for almost every product that suddenly we
00:36:47
can't and that's going to create cost and companies to write
00:36:51
right? Well, there's so many pieces
00:36:52
that are like to some degree, a bad supply chain.
00:36:57
Problem could be seen as reassuring, because it means
00:37:00
fundamental and flick that sort of the inflationary forces are
00:37:04
the FED aren't the real problem, but it's actually supply chain
00:37:07
problem. So there's a constant sort of
00:37:10
what's good is bad and bad is good, right?
00:37:13
So that's why, you know, people like David Sachs who I saw
00:37:16
tweeted out and I don't follow him but I said this came to me a
00:37:18
different way that like, you know, inflation was the result
00:37:21
of government, you know, stimulus checks that were given
00:37:24
out to families that that is directly the cause of inflation.
00:37:27
And we did this to ourselves I think was his point there, which
00:37:30
of course, I mean, there is a possibility.
00:37:32
Well sure. I mean, look, I have not read a
00:37:34
single good but one that I felt confident about explanation that
00:37:39
holistically explained inflation.
00:37:40
I think the I think the checks the people were great.
00:37:43
I mean I Believe in them. But yeah, I mean putting
00:37:47
government money behind a roaring economy can cause
00:37:51
inflation. I mean, yeah, I think we've done
00:37:54
that before. We put a lot of government money
00:37:56
behind, like all of Wall Street, right order to recover faster,
00:38:01
the try this, and it didn't, it didn't lead to Runaway inflation
00:38:06
one and it also did not lead to like any Equitable outcomes
00:38:09
whatsoever. So, yeah, that's like, well,
00:38:11
let's take the money and see what happens.
00:38:12
We put in the hands of the American people.
00:38:13
Everybody goes out and buys a used car.
00:38:15
Awesome. Like we have now have a used car
00:38:17
shortage and inflation in the used car market.
00:38:19
But you know, people is there's not going to be a perfect
00:38:23
solution, but I do think it was possibly worth trying the
00:38:26
alternative rather than putting the million dollars behind 10
00:38:29
rodeo bull put a good jillion dollars behind like, just some
00:38:32
people, well, I think that the challenge we face right now,
00:38:35
right there in The Savvy, investing world, the line is
00:38:38
always, you know, buy the rumor sell the news right.
00:38:41
When you think something's going to happen, you make the trade
00:38:44
and then when they actually announced it, send the market
00:38:47
the other way, when Regular Joe consumer is reacting, right?
00:38:50
So, right now, people sort of the inverse people are selling
00:38:55
shares ahead of fed raising interest rates when the FED
00:38:59
raises interest rates. Will the markets actually, you
00:39:02
know, how will the markets react will it get worse or if they
00:39:04
already priced in those decisions, right?
00:39:07
That sort of the unknowable thing.
00:39:10
What's your sense by the way? On the impact of The crash in
00:39:14
the crypto Market on. I mean, water, a cup crypto
00:39:18
Market, what at its peak with something like three trillion
00:39:21
dollars and now mean it's like, it's 1.5.
00:39:25
So Paul Krugman just did a column and I like Paul Krugman,
00:39:28
I don't know. Yeah.
00:39:29
I really enjoy his writing and, you know, he was sort of
00:39:31
comparing it to like a past crisis was a credit default
00:39:34
swaps, or I forget what, and it was just like a sort of a dumb
00:39:37
call him that he acknowledged in some ways, just because the
00:39:40
Bitcoin Market is just not large enough to Cabbage side some sort
00:39:44
of shock. Where's the only reason that, I
00:39:46
actually think there's some Merit to the crashing of the
00:39:49
crypto, you know, like coin values.
00:39:50
And any of those things is going to have impact is.
00:39:52
I think they're, I understand that.
00:39:55
Like it's a small number of people that control a huge
00:39:58
percentage of all of the existing, you know, coins and
00:40:01
ftes or anything and that space. But anecdotally talking to a lot
00:40:05
of people in the ride-sharing, you know, the gig economy space.
00:40:09
There's a lot of people that put their money into crypto I think
00:40:11
for a time that was that was Suggested as a smart, hold and
00:40:15
investment value. Sorry, hold a value or
00:40:17
investment. And, you know, with and I don't
00:40:20
know specifically what coins they always put their money
00:40:23
into, but there will be impact on regular folk, right.
00:40:29
And I mean some ways, the regular people are the ones who
00:40:31
eat it because they come in right later, but I just don't
00:40:35
think it's enough. It's not enough to go puff
00:40:36
drivers talking to you would put who put her like a bunch of her
00:40:39
savings into some like Shiba Inu NACA, right?
00:40:42
Yeah, like that. A terrible idea, of course, I
00:40:44
didn't say that to her but like, no.
00:40:46
So don't worry. Knock off the shiba inu.
00:40:49
I think, raises a no, no, it wasn't.
00:40:51
It was an on Sheba. It was like, yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:40:58
Which is like, that might be the most volatile pump-and-dump of
00:41:01
them all, you know, just it is a little bit like all of the IPOs
00:41:04
of the 90s where you had completely untested companies
00:41:07
pumped up by Silicon Valley, money hitting the public markets
00:41:11
and then investors retail investors getting Completely
00:41:14
screwed by this. Even as like institutional
00:41:17
investors were like, actually we're probably not going to buy
00:41:19
these things anymore, it isn't that one of the tenants of why
00:41:21
web three or crypto door going to call?
00:41:23
It is good. Is because it like offers access
00:41:25
to you know unaccredited investors to put money into a
00:41:29
potentially. It does in a universe created
00:41:32
and controlled by a few rich people.
00:41:33
Yeah. Right, I really you guys are
00:41:35
saying, but if the point is the stock market is not the economy.
00:41:39
Bitcoin is not anything. Like I just think.
00:41:41
It's just like, we do. You still think that like the
00:41:44
actions Financial actions of companies and real consumers,
00:41:49
probably is them. I mean, the two most important
00:41:51
inputs in the real economy, right?
00:41:53
That's it. I'm sure we are about to be
00:41:54
flooded with stories of people who lost everything.
00:41:57
Sure, on first, the coins, cash is on there.
00:42:00
Any parties, you know, being scammed through enough to use
00:42:03
all of that stuff. And yeah, I guess yeah.
00:42:04
Like as a smart reader, we should remind ourselves that
00:42:07
isn't necessarily the economy, but that is, I mean these are
00:42:10
people's lives. I do think there's some
00:42:12
Innovation innovation. In crypto, the speculation is
00:42:15
fueling super smart people to try to invent a use case and so
00:42:21
I don't think the government should stop people.
00:42:24
I don't, I don't think the government should have stopped
00:42:26
people. And so, then it's part of the
00:42:28
free market. And that's right.
00:42:30
Sort of buyer, beware, and they're sort of that fringy
00:42:33
behavior. We saw like in the housing
00:42:34
market in 2007 and six as well, you know, so like every year,
00:42:38
the real problem Market, the government back something up or
00:42:40
whatever. But like Mark is apperance
00:42:42
always And of the outer reaches of it, where it gets the most
00:42:46
dangerous. That's almost where you see the
00:42:47
most risky consumer investment Behavior.
00:42:50
So like whether it was super speculative stocks, whether it
00:42:55
was insane, housing speculation, and now, if it's crypto, that
00:43:00
will be this booms sort of defining asset class.
00:43:04
But that doesn't mean that there were no other contributing
00:43:06
factors to the room or that. The bust my Chicken Little case
00:43:11
is not. Cryptic it would just be Index
00:43:14
funds are driving a ton of money blindly into stocks, like if
00:43:19
Tesla was to fall to Ford's valuation, it would lose more
00:43:22
than 700 billion dollars in market cap.
00:43:26
And it is a huge holding and most of the major index funds.
00:43:30
So I think the much more risky scenario where the economy is
00:43:34
impacted by the stock market is people lose face, faith and
00:43:38
Tesla. Tesla is basically propped up
00:43:41
most of this back Market the hole.
00:43:43
Sort of belief system around how these companies are valued
00:43:48
collapses. That has a major impact on index
00:43:51
funds that has a real impact on the economy.
00:43:54
And to me sort of the index funds support of Tesla.
00:43:58
Just proportional to the amount that retail wants to drive it up
00:44:01
is much more worrying than the entire crypto Market at.
00:44:04
That's my point of view. Yeah, I guess I think see the
00:44:07
crypto Market is like kind of Fringe behavior and maybe my
00:44:10
analogy. Maybe my comparisons are totally
00:44:12
wrong because like housing, And stocks were both things that
00:44:15
both institutional investors in large swaths, looked at invested
00:44:20
in and supported. And then later the highest risk
00:44:23
retail investors. And then with crypto, you did
00:44:28
not have like sort of broad by in.
00:44:31
It's truly, truly a kind of like this fringy Fringe a thing.
00:44:34
Yeah, it's not foundational to the economy in the world real
00:44:36
estate. Or now, you know, mutual funds
00:44:39
or index funds. I take it back and it's very
00:44:41
Global. It's it wouldn't necessarily
00:44:43
have America specific my point with bringing it up is just
00:44:46
that, you know, the egalitarian nature of crypto has taken in a
00:44:49
huge amount of people that otherwise would have been barred
00:44:52
from extremely volatile stocks. And I'm just, you will see a lot
00:44:55
more people losing their shirts than it would have happened, had
00:44:58
they not been. So I lost some Bitcoin so don't
00:45:07
do that. My whole portfolio just has to
00:45:11
continue to be worth more than like, In dollars and I'm doing.
00:45:14
Okay. Yeah, to be clear.
00:45:16
I am very small percentage of my assets and crypto.
00:45:20
Most in index funds, I'm pretty stressed by the rising interest
00:45:24
rates, because I'm probably going to have to refinance
00:45:27
actually think that in July a mortgage Bond marker are the
00:45:29
most important thing to watch still.
00:45:32
I'm sure a ton of people are on adjustable-rate mortgages to
00:45:35
that will at some point be kicking into an awful.
00:45:37
You know, an awful rate and the ability to refinance is
00:45:40
basically not there if the interest rates are higher.
00:45:43
So, It's it's pretty heroin. Yeah.
00:45:47
Yes, we'll do a whole episode. Just on how terrifying is to own
00:45:50
a home. It will just be Tom.
00:45:51
Yeah, I figure I could patch it and I can pack it.
00:45:54
I'll patch on my mortgage broker and you guys can see me cry live
00:45:57
on air as he tells me what my race.
00:45:59
Can it be owning a home is supposed to be smart in a period
00:46:01
of high inflation? I guess your issue is that
00:46:03
you're mostly financed. You are and if you only read
00:46:07
yeah. Yes.
00:46:08
If you are, you know stuck into a 30-year fixed-rate if you're
00:46:11
like me, and you're going to have to refinance when
00:46:13
Conversion goes. What's what decides?
00:46:15
Whether you're a variable or fixed?
00:46:17
Well, it's just a teaser rate. I mean, you can just buy into a
00:46:20
rate that's like, you know, first five years two and a half
00:46:23
percent, then it kicks up into like three at your shoes when
00:46:25
you talk to the bank. Yeah.
00:46:27
Yeah. But you can you can get a fixed
00:46:29
rate at the beginning. It's like a church or hi.
00:46:31
Rick. It's there and you have to
00:46:33
qualify for it. Usually have some sort of income
00:46:35
qualification. Then you also need to be able to
00:46:37
put down so much on the house to get a fixed rate and often times
00:46:41
with adjustable rate mortgages Has one of the reasons they at
00:46:44
least used to entrap people is that you did not need as much
00:46:49
Financial Security to get one because you could make the
00:46:54
payments on the lower rate, right?
00:46:56
But then when the rate change dramatically, those people are
00:47:00
really vulnerable, is the prospect of a downturn.
00:47:04
Something that is being discussed with any seriousness
00:47:07
in the tech industry. And is it something that is
00:47:11
having any kind of ripple effect?
00:47:12
So I've been talking To a lot of investors Venture capitalists
00:47:16
and some of the crossover people.
00:47:18
I mean I think right now in Silicon Valley were still in the
00:47:22
price adjustment period. It's not like Panic.
00:47:24
It's not like oh, I'm worried Mike.
00:47:26
This company is about to go bankrupt.
00:47:28
Like so many companies raised so much more money right now.
00:47:31
It's just how do we get private companies to match?
00:47:36
You know, the public markets, who reorient strategy, I think
00:47:40
if you know the stock market fell much more be a different
00:47:43
conversation but right now it's more price adjustment, maybe
00:47:49
some companies, wait, you know, we've seen companies raise two
00:47:52
or three times in a single year, right?
00:47:54
So some of these companies now could just sit out 2022 and say,
00:47:58
okay? Actually we're not fundraising
00:48:00
this year and funds that had been raising from their LPS
00:48:03
every two years might Deploy Capital more slowly to make sure
00:48:08
that they have more proof points so that they can raise, you
00:48:11
know. So, maybe we'll see sort of a
00:48:13
Slowdown in the Euphoria. But I don't see sort of, you
00:48:18
know, we need like Peloton or Robin Hood or something, to go
00:48:21
bankrupt, or like something like that, where these stocks are
00:48:24
falling. And then there's no bottom that
00:48:27
I think would be, sort of, totally a game changer.
00:48:31
And I think talking to people right now, the conversations are
00:48:33
much more sass multiples were at Sex on the private markets and
00:48:37
now they're coming back down to earth.
00:48:39
And, you know, I think that's the type of conversation at the
00:48:42
moment and not sort of existential dread.
00:48:46
What did you think? I thought the information had an
00:48:48
interesting story about tiger glow.
00:48:50
Yeah, super jealous. I'd heard about block Damon.
00:48:53
I mean, basically Tiger Tiger Global, you know?
00:48:56
And they also said, alky on had these agreements with unicorn
00:49:01
startups to invest. And then when the market
00:49:03
corrected, they said, oh, actually, we want About tweak
00:49:06
your valuation down 20%, or whatever.
00:49:09
Because of the correction, you know, basically clawed back
00:49:12
their terms sheets to like, revalue the company's right.
00:49:15
Which is very hedge fund behavior and not very sort of
00:49:18
Silicon Valley, good standing, VC Behavior.
00:49:21
But my question about that was, you know, like the angle for
00:49:25
that sort of a story is like, you know, the froth is off and
00:49:28
you know evaluations are coming back down to Earth.
00:49:30
But these are all companies that still raised at higher
00:49:33
valuations their last run around like we're Talking about flat
00:49:36
rounds or down rounds from just like maybe not quite as frothy,
00:49:40
which sure that is Meaningful, but it's not totally thing.
00:49:44
Is that it? That's why I'm saying it's much
00:49:45
more about. Where did the hedge funds?
00:49:47
Say, in Silicon Valley in 2022, like he's tiger going to shift
00:49:52
its strategy to be much more public focus and pull back on
00:49:55
private investing. Do they still seem?
00:49:58
I mean, the Venture Capital firms.
00:49:59
Want tiger to look like a bad actor here, right?
00:50:01
I mean, there's a strong. Incentive to say tiger is gonna
00:50:04
play by different rules. Don't trust them because in the
00:50:07
bad times they're going to screw you.
00:50:09
But like your point. Exactly.
00:50:10
I mean, these are questions about tiger.
00:50:13
That's not a question about like the overall sort of Market or
00:50:16
the sustainability of technology companies.
00:50:18
You know, it's still about individual players and not sort
00:50:22
of a huge risk. I don't know.
00:50:25
Do you think it's going to get much worse?
00:50:28
I don't know II mean. I mean again I cover probably
00:50:31
one of the stranger parts of right.
00:50:33
Going on right now though. Those companies I mean they
00:50:36
should eat it in bed in a sort of high interest rate like that.
00:50:40
That's a bad time to be sort of these costly has a ton of money
00:50:45
and they're reliant on a gig labor force.
00:50:47
That is pretty volatile and has been throughout the pandemic.
00:50:50
So I'm I'm always worried about what want worry babies in the
00:50:53
right word but like, you know, I think you should be wary of
00:50:56
where any of those companies go and like what trend they're
00:50:59
drafting off of in order to justify, you know the valuations
00:51:03
are going for but you know, dope of is a company that also It's
00:51:06
to go public this year. So like, they're going to really
00:51:08
test this, what a good year. I mean II.
00:51:10
Yeah, I definitely think we're going to see fewer.
00:51:13
IPOs people are going to try and hold off.
00:51:15
I was back Market as so weekend, now, that if they can't get out
00:51:19
in a traditional IPO, what happens, right?
00:51:22
Well, yeah, I mean, I guess you look to the private markets
00:51:24
again which, you know, they're not dry, but I guess they're
00:51:28
what you're saying a little bit less exuberant than they were
00:51:31
last year. Hmm.
00:51:33
We haven't seen any down rounds yet though, right?
00:51:35
I mean, we have Seen, you know the kind of mini correction that
00:51:38
we thought we were going it's so early.
00:51:40
I mean honestly at this point in the year some of the deals
00:51:44
getting announced or still deals, there were probably
00:51:47
raised before the market turned so on the private markets it
00:51:51
just takes a while for a sort of the publicly announced deals to
00:51:56
come out. And then also hopefully you're
00:51:59
not in a situation where you need to write raised right after
00:52:02
the correction. So might not be till late much
00:52:05
later in this. Year that we see truly desperate
00:52:07
companies raising a Down Round so that can take time to hit the
00:52:12
news stories. I do want her.
00:52:14
So it's let me know. How do you think about?
00:52:17
Let me back up. So, a few years ago when it
00:52:20
looked like there was going to be a Slowdown in the public
00:52:22
markets and exits were grinding out hard.
00:52:24
It seemed like these were really incentivized to continue to fund
00:52:27
startups because those startups seem to continue to serve some
00:52:32
sort of Market. There were still people out
00:52:34
there who seem to want me. Deliveries of warm chocolate
00:52:37
chip cookies or, you know, these ghosts kitchen companies to
00:52:41
deliver the meals everyday food boxes sent to their home, so
00:52:45
they can make their own dinner and not have to measure anything
00:52:47
I guess with the big innovation there anyway.
00:52:49
Whatever it seemed like you of the Mockingbirds seem like the
00:52:53
consumer was still interested in at least experimenting.
00:52:56
With these companies. I wonder though, how consumer
00:52:59
patterns changed so much since the pandemic that it wouldn't
00:53:05
make as much sense. Or a VC to continue to help
00:53:07
these companies float along with no exit in sight, if we're in a
00:53:12
world where there just is not really a consumer with the
00:53:15
desire or the or the disposable income to get a box of clothing
00:53:20
to look through once a month and keep some stuff and send some
00:53:22
stuff back. If there's not really a consumer
00:53:25
desire to have a meal kit because they can't figure out
00:53:31
how to measure something, especially if they don't have
00:53:34
money. What you saw, you saw a Robin
00:53:35
Hood. The ultimate retail investor has
00:53:38
money. Story was down, not even growth.
00:53:42
Slowing their revenue was down. I didn't see that.
00:53:47
Yeah, which is like terrifying for a growth stock so that that
00:53:50
fits into your thesis, I mean, but overall consumers, don't
00:53:55
seem, I mean the unemployment rate is low and that's in part
00:54:00
because a lot of people have left the workforce to, right?
00:54:03
It's like the pictures, the consumers.
00:54:06
It is muddled. I think I just think it's mostly
00:54:10
an inflation story right now. I think the economy is good and
00:54:14
in stocks are getting hit because of inflation for because
00:54:19
because the FED will raise interest rates and then there
00:54:21
will be less money that needs to flow in to the stock market,
00:54:25
more will go into debt and, and I don't know.
00:54:29
So interesting. I feel like also because we're
00:54:31
coming out of the pandemic, like just intuitively, but I'm
00:54:35
thinking about the people, I know, Like who don't live in DC
00:54:38
or New York or SF like the people.
00:54:40
I know like where I grew up, they're not economically
00:54:44
thriving. I guess it's hard to put it.
00:54:46
So again, it's like which part of the real economy and consumer
00:54:49
economy? Are you focused on to like kind
00:54:52
of like the upper middle class part of the economy that is
00:54:56
going to get Stitch fix boxes? Right?
00:54:58
Here are the big man these Services.
00:55:00
I mean, Lauren are you talking about?
00:55:02
Like the kind of probably more, I don't know.
00:55:05
But in terms of Like their total income or there, but in terms of
00:55:09
just total number of bodies in the United States of America.
00:55:12
I wonder if they're more bodies in the United States of America
00:55:14
who are not economically thriving, not doing well done.
00:55:17
Don't have tons of expendable cash aren't really buying very
00:55:22
much, which is possibly why holiday shopping numbers overall
00:55:26
were down even though we all have friends, who knew we're
00:55:28
buying lots of stuff for the holidays, you know, sort of like
00:55:32
I just don't under there. I think there's sort of like in
00:55:35
the data Real disparity between different groups of people and I
00:55:40
don't think it's very well understood.
00:55:42
And then how does that impact? Something like Silicon Valley,
00:55:45
if the valley is really only making products for like, you
00:55:49
know, the upper middle class. Right.
00:55:53
Maybe it doesn't affect Silicon Valley at all.
00:55:55
Right. Right now.
00:55:56
So and then that makes a very interesting 2024 election.
00:56:01
Oh you know what another good episode was another.
00:56:03
Good episode was remember ska member thus Cabo Boom in the 90s
00:56:07
a fucking horse. It was like Ska and then like
00:56:10
the 1950s dance Revival. Oh yeah.
00:56:15
Yeah. It was like swing Revival that
00:56:17
Gap commercial and then like scar, I'm sorry, Papa gladion.
00:56:21
Yeah. Like totally traumatic, like
00:56:24
musical advertising blob and my mind.
00:56:27
Yeah, any dark, the No Doubt episode really dives into that.
00:56:32
Yikes. Ah yeah.
00:56:34
And those low waisted jeans are back so there's a lot happening
00:56:38
sort of like I feel like there could be a huge, no doubt
00:56:41
Revival or ask our Revival. Oh wow!
00:56:44
Wow, it's suspenders ready. I got a you know this is just
00:56:47
like another reason for me to tune out.
00:56:52
Any waves, go away, pop culture. Good good episode everybody.
00:56:57
Thank you soon and tough. All right.
00:56:59
See you Silicon Valley, goodbye, goodbye.
00:57:13
Goodbye, goodbye. Goodbye, goodbye.
00:57:16
Goodbye. Silicon Valley, goodbye,
00:57:13
goodbye. Goodbye, goodbye.
00:57:15
Goodbye, goodbye. Goodbye.